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Wire 'Em and Win: Handicapping

Wire 'Em and Win: Handicapping

List Price: $9.95
Your Price: $8.46
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Simplistic
Review: Glib and useless. The book is basically a 75 page money management guide, (and not a good one), with 25 pages of handicapping advice tacked on at the end.

The handicapping section can only be harmful to the beginner. The task of handicapping a horse race can hardly be addressed in 25 pages. The advice is so oversimplified as to be completely useless, if not harmful.

For example, Border's "par times," which he offers as an alternative to Beyer speed, are laughable. I cannot begin to address the topic in 1000 words. Readers should read Beyer's Picking Winners, The Winning Horseplayer, and Beyer on Speed in order to understand the evolution of the Beyer speed figures. I think any reader who understands Beyer speed will agree that on this one part of the handicapping puzzle, Beyer still reigns supreme.

Border's tips re recency are also pitifully inadequate. Readers interested in current form analysis should read Scott's How Will Your Horse Run Today?

Border barely addresses other handicapping factors such as pace, trips, class, consistency, and body language. He sloughs off trainer/jockey patterns and interactions as irrelevant; I think anyone who comes out ahead consistently at the track will agree they are a vital part of the puzzle.

Most of the book is a money management guide, and here again, although the basic pattern Border recommends for exotic wagers is not bad, he ignores the most critical part of money management: betting on value only. Border recommends betting more money on horses in proportion to how much you like them, with no consideration for value. Any winning horseplayer knows a black bottom line results from betting horses who are going off at odds higher than they deserve. Consistently betting horses who should be 3-1 and are going off at 2-1 will be a long term losing proposition. Consistently betting horses at 4-1 who should be 3-1 will be a long term winning proposition. And of course yes, this means you cannot place a sensible bet without having some gestalt as to what the horse's odds should be, i.e. you need to make a line. For exotics, you need to be able to calculate what a fair price would be for any given combination you are interested in, or have at hand fair value tables (e.g. fair value for the exacta with a 2-1 shot on top of a 5-1 shot is whatever), and refer to the probably payoffs before making your bet. For bets where the probable payoff is not available, recognize that you are buying a lotto ticket. If you are interested in place and show betting, study Ziemba and Hausch, and be willing to bring a pocket calculator to the track and do the math a few minutes before post. Betting without value shopping is an exercise in giving away money. Readers are referred to Mark Cramer's The Odds on Your Side and to Barry Meadow's Money Secrets at the Racetrack.

Border also recommends a method of progressive betting which has been consistently outperformed by both flat rate betting and Kelley criterion betting in long term trials.

There are no shortcuts in this game. Making money at the track is hard work, and anyone serious about it should realize this and not give up their day job after reading Border's book. It takes years to learn this game. It's as tough as chess. 95% of horseplayers lose money over the long run. Being in the 5% who come out ahead is not only hard work, it takes a considerable period of study and some experience to get there. To think that one might become a successful horseplayer after reading Border's book seems to me like thinking one could make a living practicing medicine after reading a brief money management guide and 25 pages on the recognition and treatment of disease. The lawsuits would kill you off before you ever got the chance to lose your money with poor money management...Let's get real.

Of course, there is always the option of playing as a recreational handicapper, solely for the fun and beauty in the game. But let's not bet the rent money.

I would not have reviewed the book this harshly if Border had not given the impression that his book is enough to make the beginner into a winning horseplayer.

Other recommended reading:
The Body Language of Horses, Ainslie and Ledbetter
Modern Pace Handicapping, Brohamer
Betting Thoroughbreds, Davidowitz
Horses Talk: It pays to Listen, Parker
Winning at the Races, Quirin
Thoroughbred Handicapping, Quirin

And these are only the bare essentials, in additon to the books mentioned in the text.

pjd

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Simplistic
Review: Mr Border presents some very practical information on the mechanics of managing your wagering dollars. He covers everything from straight betting to the exotics, in easy to follow fashion. Very good discussion on how to pick contenders, and how to make high probability bets without having to create your own speed ratings or track variants, etc. Most profitable book I've read all year.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Quick Read - Practical Advice
Review: Mr Border presents some very practical information on the mechanics of managing your wagering dollars. He covers everything from straight betting to the exotics, in easy to follow fashion. Very good discussion on how to pick contenders, and how to make high probability bets without having to create your own speed ratings or track variants, etc. Most profitable book I've read all year.


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