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Rating: 
Summary: Makes you wonder !
Review: I found this book both entertaining and informative. The author, Professor Mike Baillie, an expert in "dendrochronology" and palaeoecology from Queen's University, Belfast, provides a fascinating scientific detective story. The story starts with the description of a collaborative effort - over many decades - by scientists in several countries to develop a complete record of world-wide, climate modulated, annual tree growth as recorded in tree rings (dendrochronology), from the present back to several thousand years BC. The author then notes several unusual patterns in these records, separated by hundreds of years, which point to multi-year events with very poor growing conditions. This sets up the principal story in the Exodus to Arthur, as the author describes his efforts to explain these anomalies. The Professor Baillie uses as evidence historical records left by - among others - Irish, Mediterranean, Chinese and Mayan writers and story-tellers, and archeological evidence including boats and trees recovered from Irish bogs and well preserved building timbers from long abandoned Anasazi pueblos in Utah. Attention is also given to those cases in which some anomalies in tree ring records do not match well across great distances, for example, between Europe and the American southwest.The conclusion? Well, the title gives it away, so I will not repeat it. I will say that the author does an excellent job of presenting alternative theories, and then explaining why he finds those theories less compelling than the answer he favors. The presentation of the other theories takes the readers on an easy to follow tour of efforts to duplicate parts or all of the dendrochronology timeline using other methods. These methods include gathering and analysis of ice-cores collected in Greenland, the dating of volcano eruptions by radiocarbon methods, and using archeological evidence to note similarities or differences in tools, clothing, burial practices and trade goods between spatially separated cultures. In addition, the author explains his own disagreement with recent attempts to re-arrange the "standard" chronology for the ancient cultures of the Eastern Mediterranean. Exodus to Arthur is one of many recently published books on "catastrophe theory" aimed at "popular" - and not necessarily scientifically trained - audiences. This book is the best one I have read. It appears to me that publishers and editors for these books are demanding "human-interest stories" presenting the thoughts and emotions of the author(s) as they performed their research. Apparently most scientists do not have the skill to write a human-interest story and still present compelling scientific arguments. Professor Baillie pulls off the trick of mixing the personal with the scientific almost seamlessly, probably because he has a good sense of humor, which comes through in his writing. By the way, the dust cover of this book is horrible. I purchased the book through Amazon.com based on information gathered from Internet mailing lists. If I had seen the book first in a bookstore, I would have taken one glance at the cover and decided not to buy it. I suggest buying the book and then throwing the dust cover away as soon as you are near a trash can.
Rating: 
Summary: Interesting reading, but with some flaws
Review: Let's hit the good things first. The author is a person of undoubted scholarship, reputation, and industry. He specializes in dendrochronology, the science of analyzing tree rings to ascertain the past. By doing so, Dr. Baillie has uncovered several patterns of altered climate within the past six millenia, the last about 536 A.D. That these events were catastrophic seems beyond argument.
Dr. Baillie's discusssion of the science of dendrochronology is extremely informative, as are the conclusions of the physical events that he draws from his work. This much of the book is must reading for anyone interested in paleoarchaeology, as well as more recent events.
I must admit, however, that I am somewhat put off by any attempt to link enormously ambiguous ancient writing with real events, let alone attempts to engraft specific conclusions onto these ambiguities. To his credit, Dr. Baillie largely holds his conclusions somewhat in check, but, even so, portion of the book end up by paraphrasing such discredited "experts" as von Daniken and Velikovsky. It may be that some ancient writings do reflect cosmic accidents, but I am extemely skeptical that most of them do.
Dr. Baillie wholly ignores the undisputed fact that a stupendous volcanic eruption occurred at Rabaul in A.D. 536, and that the even larger Crater Lake and Kikai caldera-forming eruptions occured in centuries immediately preceding 4000 B.C. Yet these events would as equally well, if not better, explain the tree ring anamolies Dr. Baillie has found. Certainly, the timing of these events, particularly Rabaul, is right on the mark. Other timely volcanic events also exist. As a consequence, the book seems to have reached its conclusions without all the facts being analyzed.
This reviewer is also skeptical of the much-publicized Clube-Napier analysis that Earth is frequently hit by large damaging meteor storms, an analysis borrowed by Dr. Bailey in support of his conclusions. No sedimentary or other kindred analysis has ever been offered to support these speculations, espcially the hypothesis that the Irish Sea was struck by a comet in A.D. 540.
Dr/ Baillie's conclusions are certainly PLAUSIBLE, but are they supported with sufficient evidence, apart from ambiguous tree ring discoveries, to attain the status of a testable theory? This writer believes not, and therefore, Dr. Baillie has not made his case, in my view.
Dr. Baillie's text is eminently understandable to anyone with a limited scientific background. However, the smallness of the print makes for difficult reading.
Based on these considerations, I give the book three stars, and recommend it in accordance with the preceding caveats.
Rating: 
Summary: Science and Mythology
Review: The author is a scientist who first lays out the scientific proof of major environmental events during the past 5,000 years using dendrochronology records (his expertise) compiled from around the world and ice cores from Greenland. After marshalling the evidence to establish the 'effects' he then goes on to speculate about the 'causes', looking at various sources such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and other tectonic events such as outgassing, finally moving on to near cometary misses and the associated debris as potential culprits. Throughout the book, the author ties real science to his reading of historical and mythological texts to present a compelling case; a case which he continously subjects to scientific and logical scrutiny, pointing out the strengths as well as the weaknesses of the case. The book has 8 appendices which are as interesting as the book itself and an excellent bibliography. I can very highly recommend this book based on the scientific content and methodology of his analyses. This is no loopy guy with a loopier theory. The author approaches the subject in exactly the way such past (and indisputable) environmental events should be analysed vis-a-vis their potential effects on human history, including discussion of why these events may have been historically recorded yet are now overlooked by 'modern' researchers. This book should put the subject, often pejoratively labled as 'catastrophism', back on the scientific and rational table where it belongs.
Rating:
Summary: Don't judge this book by its cover!!!
Review: This book contains incredibly important, scientific observations and conclusions, about the past few thousand years of Earth's history. Unfortunately, the publishers seem to have adorned this brilliant work of science with one of the silliest book jackets I've ever seen in my life. Let me just say right now that I have communicated with the author about this, and the book jacket was NOT his choice. The author, Mike Baillie, is a highly respected professor of palaeoecology at Queen's University Belfast, in Northern Ireland. More than anyone else, he has pioneered the study of "dendrochronology," which is the study of ancient tree rings, and how widely spaced they are in a given year, to infer climate and weather conditions for the years being studied. Basically, the technique is perfectly logical. In a year with terrible weather, trees grow less. Makes sense, right? Well, indeed, this is always the case, and it is possible to see tiny discrepancies in tree growth from year to year, even today. Now, what would you think if you noticed that, at some time in the distant past, trees seem to have gone several years in a row with hardly any growth at all? Scary, eh? What would this mean to you? Well, if you think it over for long enough, you should conclude that SOMETHING was probably blotting out the sun's life-giving rays to such a great extent that trees simply could not grow. If trees could not grow well, it follows that agriculture probably suffered as well. And if agriculture suffered badly enough, there might even be records of actual civilizations crumbling and vanishing. Professor Baillie has isolated five such periods, in our relatively recent past. These periods took place in 2354-2345 B.C., 1628-1623 B.C., 1159-1141 B.C., 208-204 B.C., and A.D. 536-545. For each of these periods, he has sought to locate historical records, or at least old legends, which might provide some evidence of terrible times for mankind. Sure enough, he always seems to come through with something or other. My favorite part is the A.D. 536-545 period, for which he has made a faily plausible case of being connected to the old legends of king Arthur's Wasteland. Usually quite a bit of detective work is required here, but more often than not he can make a strong case for something having happened to our climate, at irregular intervals of a few centuries. The title makes plain what he has concluded to be the likely culprits -- comets and asteroids, and possibly an occasional volcano. Current astronomical theory, in fact, actually does hold that statistically, we really should expect to have been hit a few times since the dawn of civilization. Not by anything as bad as the monster asteroid that immolated the dinosaurs -- we would certainly remember that! But even much more moderate-sized asteroids could reasonably be expected to cause significant, widespread social disruption. I would like to point out, to whoever is reading this, that TWO of professor Baillie's theories in this book have already begun receiving substantial confirmation, since 1999. For example, Baillie believes that something awful happened to the world climate in about 2350 B.C. One of the biggest underreported stories of 2001, pushed off the front pages by the events of September 11, was the discovery of a asteroid-created crater in southern Iraq. It's almost 2 miles in diameter. Many scientists feel that the crater could be the "smoking gun" to explain the events of around 2350 B.C. If you are interested in learning more about this important topic, you don't even need to stand up. Just open another window on your browser, go to any search engine you like, and do a search for the terms "2350," "asteroid," "crater," and "Iraq." You should get a few hits. If that doesn't work, try searching for "Sharad Master." He is the South African geophysicist who discovered the crater, while looking at satellite photos of southern Iraq. He will be presenting his findings at a conference at Brunel University, in the U.K., at the end of August 2002. Hopefully, this time it will get better press coverage than last year. The other theory which has gotten more attention, since 1999, concerns the event of A.D. 536-545. If you'd like to learn more about this, I'd like to recommend that you read "Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of Modern Civilization," by David Keys. "Exodus to Arthur is a really important book, and I don't understand why it went out of print. It must be because of the stupid cover. Well, listen to the proverbs your grandparents taught you, and DON'T judge this book by its cover. Find a copy and read it. Two thumbs way up.
Rating:
Summary: Don't judge this book by its cover!!!
Review: This book is yet another attempt to explain happenings of the past in terms of comet/asteroid collisions. As is usual for these books, this author sees what he wants to see in ancient writings. Yet he weaves the old texts together with his knowledge of dendrochronology to create a solid, if somewhat speculative, work. He is quite limited by his lack of knowledge regarding astronomy, and this weakens the book. Perhaps the biggest trouble the book has is the author's insistence on blaming comet events for environmental downturns, rather than considering that comet events may simply have been taken as bad omens by people of the past. In fact, the events the author discusses could have had other cosmic causes besides comets. Still, the book is very well written and his attention to keeping his ideas in check is refreshing considering some of the junk that has been written on this topic. He does not take the book to any places that are not supported by facts, and he is clearly a real scientist, not a yahoo. I really enjoyed this book.
Rating:
Summary: A very good book, with some weaknesses
Review: This book is yet another attempt to explain happenings of the past in terms of comet/asteroid collisions. As is usual for these books, this author sees what he wants to see in ancient writings. Yet he weaves the old texts together with his knowledge of dendrochronology to create a solid, if somewhat speculative, work. He is quite limited by his lack of knowledge regarding astronomy, and this weakens the book. Perhaps the biggest trouble the book has is the author's insistence on blaming comet events for environmental downturns, rather than considering that comet events may simply have been taken as bad omens by people of the past. In fact, the events the author discusses could have had other cosmic causes besides comets. Still, the book is very well written and his attention to keeping his ideas in check is refreshing considering some of the junk that has been written on this topic. He does not take the book to any places that are not supported by facts, and he is clearly a real scientist, not a yahoo. I really enjoyed this book.
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