Vital Signs 2003: The Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

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Summary: A wealth of reliable information
Review: This volume, prepared on an annual basis by the World Watch Institute in cooperation with the UN Environment Program, helps the reader to grasp the big picture by identifying important trends shaping our future and progress towards ecologically sustainable development. It provides a snapshot of the world and is a respected source of facts and figures. "The year 2002 set numerous local and regional records for windstorms, rain intensities, floods, droughts, and temperatures. Economic losses from weather disasters worldwide approached $53 billion, a 93% increase over 2001 losses. The increase was due in part to the return of El Nino in mid-2002. The number of natural disasters totaled about 700; of these 593 were weather-related events. Windstorms and floods accounted for 98% of total 2002 insured losses from natural catastrophes." Many of the problems arise because of the gap between the rich and the poor - the wealthy impose the heaviest toll through their materials-intensive, pollution-laden lifestyles while the poor live in the worst conditions and over tax cropland, forests, and water resources. Experts and activists are putting forward proposals, expressed at government level by the Millenium Goals and the Plan of Implementation declared at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, to meet the major challenge of our times - improving the lifestyle of billions of people without wrecking the delicate balance that sustains all life on the planet. While a minority enjoys plentiful food, mobility and cutting edge technology, a large majority worries about daily survival. Hunger is widespread, not because of a shortage of food, but because many lack money to buy grain used to fatten livestock so the wealthy can eat meat. Deep disparities between rich and poor is found between countries but also within countries. The growing economic divide translates into unequal educational opportunities, unfunded social programs, vulnerability to disease and natural disasters, and exposure to armed conflict and human rights violations.

The first key indicator is in food trends where grain production is dropping at the same time as meat consumption is growing. The second key indicator is in energy and atmosphere trends. "Measurements taken at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii show an 18% increase in CO2 levels from 1960 to 2002. Scientists estimate that levels have risen 31% since the onset of the Industrial Revolution around 1750. The current concentration has not been exceeded in at least 420,000 years - and likely in 20 million years. In May 2002, ocean buoys in the central Pacific started reading warmer-than-average temperatures, heralding the onset of El Nino, which persisted into 2003, sharply changing patterns of rainfall, temperature and winds in some regions and contributing to, for instance, droughts in India, Australia, and Africa and floods in Europe. Scientists believe that this El Nino may help push the global temperature to a new high in 2003." "Long-term trends make it clear that for most islands, as for the world in general, the sea is rising. In the 20th century, global sea level rose 10-20 millimeters per year. The sea level rises from melting continental ice masses and from expansion of the oceans due to climate change."

Economic trends are the third key indicator; there is slow economic growth, foreign debt is declining, advertising spending is flat, tourism growth is shaky, and world heritage sites are rising. Between 1960 and 1995 the disparity in per capita income between the world's richest and poorest nations widened from 18 to 1 to 37 to 1. In addition the inequality gap in most countries is even more pronounced. In the US CEO remuneration grew to 350 times the average factory worker, about ten times higher than in other industrial countries. Farm subsidies of $300 billion per year undermine farmers in developing nations by exporting at 25% to 50% below the cost of production leaving the poor little alternative but to turn to drug crops that are in high demand in wealthy nations. Economic inequities mean that the poor cannot afford drugs for AIDS where the high death rate worsens poverty. Orphans worldwide are increasing with children who have lost one or both parents projected to be 25 million by 2010. While hunger and poverty persist, the number of hungry people worldwide has declined 15% from 1970 and debt forgiveness by the World Bank has increased. Global wind capacity has tripled since 1998 and remains the fastest growing power source.

Other areas tracked are transportation and communication; health and social trends and military trends. The second half of the book is devoted to five features where there is much information that you might not expect in such a volume. "Traditional and alternative medicine are increasingly used in part because of accessibility and affordability. People in poor nations obtain them for free by gathering plants in forests and jungles or by growing them in gardens or between crops. In rural areas, traditional healers are also more readily accessible than doctors. In Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia, the ratio of TM practitioners to the population is 1 to 200 or 1 to 400 compared with 1 to 20,000 for doctors trained in more modern medicine."

In a small volume the reader has access to a wealth of reliable information composing the most important trends regarding our world today. There is progress in many important areas but there is still much to be done. "Vital Signs" keeps track of these trends and helps to identify where we must put renewed effort. Everyone should be aware of this valuable book and insist on it being purchased annually by the local library.