Historical Dynamics : Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity)

Rating:
Summary: A new avenue for historical research
Review: I remember that some years ago when I discovered
"Looking at History through Mathematics" by Nicolas Rashevsky
(published in 1968 by the MIT Press)
I was at first enthralled by the title but then fairly
disappointed by the book itself for in fact it contains very
little history: no solid statistical data, not even
qualitative historical trends that would illustrate some
of the theoretical curves. Instead of focusing on sharply
defined questions, Rashevsky raises broad issues such as for
instance (on p. 9 and 117)
why it took 10,000 years rather than a few hundred
for humanity to develop from its cultural state at the
beginning of early urban civilization to its present state.

This former experience explains why I read Peter Turchin's book
with so much pleasure. What a contrast indeed! In
every section stimulating models are blended with quantitative
historical data drawn from the best sources. From the rise of
Islam to the growth of the Mormon Church to Chinese dynastic
cycles "Historical Dynamics" offers a fascinating sample
of sharply defined problems for which models are able to provide
unified understanding.

Finally, I would like to express a wish or a hope.
It would be really great
if this book would attract the attention of a sample
of historians willing to collect additional field data on
the issues that are raised in the book. For instance,
regarding the growth of religious communities, there are
literally hundreds of cases which could be considered, from the
spread of Lutheranism or Calvinism to the growth of the
Amish, Mennonites, Jehovah's Witnesses and many other
religious movements. Needless to say, to be useful such a work
has do be carried out in a uniform and systematic way,
by which I mean
that the SAME data must be collected in each case-study.
This would be an ideal task for a team
of historians from different countries, much in the same way
as observational research in physics or astronomy
is carried out by international teams of researchers.