Rating: 
Summary: A 1990-Based Forecast of the Decade Just Past
Review: This book is the 1990 update to the blockbluster, Megatrends, by John Naisbitt from 1982. The date in the title of this book is a reference to the end point of the forecast period.I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses. I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include: (1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology. (2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts. (3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected. (4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism. (5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies. (6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand. (7) women become much more important in leadership roles. (8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor. (9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience. (10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual." The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty. As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature. On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view. Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method. Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of these trends is likely, but what will be the new ones? You'll have to think about that for yourself. After you have finished enjoying this book and thinking about what it means for your future, I suggest that you consider how you can expand your own individual potential. As the Army likes to say, "Be all that you can be." Use the irresistible trends to your advantage for breakthrough gains!
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