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Summary: The Global Economy
Review: 1988 accord between United States and Canada to drop all trade barriers1992 reduction of trade barriers with twelve nations in the European Economic Community 1988 Australia and New Zealands free trade agreements went into effect 1988 Talks about a U.S Japan free trade accord For a global economy-one marketplace-to work, we must eventually have completely free trade among the nations, just as we do within the nation-states themselves (John Naisbitt - Megatrend 2000) The United States biggest import is money. Its largest export by far are bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. The United States is the largest producer in the global economy, it represents 25 percent of the world production and 5 percent of the population. Any country that attempts to remain economically closed and apart from the global economy will be left hopelessly behind. Global Economy trends 1) Privatization of Business 2) Bankruptcy 3) Stock Markets 4) decreasing reliance on the blue collar worker 5) increased reliance on telecommunications and technology 6) Decreasing size and importance of unions 7) elimination of the command economies 8) the rising growth rate of the pacific rim - the shift from European production to Asian production and wealth (China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore). The pacific rim is experiencing the fastest period of economic growth more than five times of the industrial revolution. China and the four tigers have learned to skip over the industrial revolution and enter the informational revolution.
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Summary: Mega boring
Review: A good book to put someone to sleep. It can be read in about a day, if that is what you are looking for. It barely predicts anything but it certainly points out some past precedents that have future implications. A good book for Geography or Urban Planning Majors.
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Summary: Forrest for the trees
Review: I know, it's a little late to be reading this book in 2003...nostalgia, anyone? One trend missed apparently: the rise of terrorism. This goes hand in hand with the fall of communism, because now there's a new bad kid on the block: move over communism, center stage Jihadists. The reprise of fundamentalism was noted in the book, and the turn to the political right, and the concurrent diminution of the "welfare state." Naisbitt et al. wrote about "no more wars." They should have read Lorenz, "On Aggression," before saying all that. War may be inevitable, if aggression is instinctual, but war doesn't have to be always destructive: extreme sports, war games, ritual matches (presidents playing chess?) could do it. Diximus.
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Summary: No more Mr. Wiseguy
Review: I know, it's a little late to be reading this book in 2003...nostalgia, anyone? One trend missed apparently: the rise of terrorism. This goes hand in hand with the fall of communism, because now there's a new bad kid on the block: move over communism, center stage Jihadists. The reprise of fundamentalism was noted in the book, and the turn to the political right, and the concurrent diminution of the "welfare state." Naisbitt et al. wrote about "no more wars." They should have read Lorenz, "On Aggression," before saying all that. War may be inevitable, if aggression is instinctual, but war doesn't have to be always destructive: extreme sports, war games, ritual matches (presidents playing chess?) could do it. Diximus.
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Summary: Amazingly prescient
Review: I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree with a good many of the reviews written on here about this book. I first read this book in the mid 90's and am in the process of re-reading it today, and to a great degree many of the chapters are indeed still relevant. The strongest chapter in the book has to do with the rise of women in leadership positions. This was very forward looking in 1990 when it was written. At that particular time, there was only one female U.S. senator (Nancy Kassebaum), today there are 13 (including two each in California and Maine).
Admittedly, there are some areas where the authors got it somewhat wrong. For example, the renaissence in the arts has not occurred at the expense of sports to the degree that the authors had thought it would. And the age of Nanotechnology has not been as progressive as they predicted. However, these are trivial points in an otherwise fine collection.
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Summary: Hindsight is better than foresight, unfortunately
Review: In contrast to the first Megatrends book that came out in 1984, this book is way off the mark. His economic analysis is always interesting, but this time, for the most part, his trends have not panned out. I found this book to be a much slower read than the first Megatrends. Even so, I still plan to look for Megatrends 2010 when it comes out.
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Summary: Sequels are almost always disappointing
Review: Sounds up to date, and I bought it thinking it new, but tired forecasts from 1990 can easily be beaten by anyone of average thinking from the vantagepoint of 2000. Avoid and think for yourself instead!
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Summary: Forrest for the trees
Review: The authors missed the point of the book, which should have been to forecast the future socio-economic trends, and not their personal desire. They barely mentioned the way technology started to shape the new century, and they were so focused on Europe being at peace for almost 50 years that totally forgot there were other countries with enough forces to create worldwire conflict (terrorism, oil interests, territorial struggle, ethnical issues, etc). My most honest advice is: don't bother, and don't waste your time, unless you simply want to see how much they failed at what they intended to do. The writing is too simplistic and barely factual, and there's no serious authoring or editing effort behind this "book".
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Summary: Religious Revival of the Third Millennium
Review: Then the turning away from the religion of technology and the reemergence of spirituality as manifested in the religious revival are signs of great hope. Having vowed to make war and weapons of mass destruction obsolete, a renew humanity begins the task of healing the environment. (John Naisbitt - Megatrend 2000) Here are some of the question Naisbitt raises:
Is the Millenium the symbolic struggle between Good verses Evil? Is the Millenium revival a metaphor of choice, where, on one hand man can destroy himself through: nuclear annihilation, bio terror, or the green house effect; and on the other hand, God destroys the wicked because of their willfull disobedience to his laws. What does it mean when we hear "God is Dead" espoused by the Greek Nietzsche philosophy of those who worship science? Are we prepared to embrace and accept both sides of human nature? Do we have to abandon our humanity too embrace science? Is the spiritual revival a quest to better our lives and our neighbors? In times of religious persecution, economic hard times, social change people seek to escape out of history seek millennial promises of peace and plenty. Science and technology do not tell us the meaning of life. One starts to rediscover the emotional side of life. There is a deep need for emotional fulfillment through religion. In tough times, people anchor down with either fundamentalism or spiritualistic experiences. As stronger emotional needs start surface, more advocacy of millennial doctrine will occur with rhetoric centering on themes of apocalyptic destruction and the final return and reign of Christ. The end out come will be "Good" has over "Evil". Fundamentalism will increase: Shinto, Islam, Protestantism, Buddhism, and Judism. Joseph Cambell's in his book "Power of Myth" emphasized the importance and power of myth. Myth has power and influence on human behavior. Naisbitt indicates that in time of rapid change both inner-directed, "trust the feeling inside" and out-direction, "authoritive doctrine" will increase. "The Battle for God" further supports the idea of a religious revival with a vast potential to influence media, business, and politics. Naisbitt observes, one Shinto priest known as the "miracle man of Japan" won 5 million members, in Japan, United States, and Brazil with 80 percent being non-Japanese. Fundamentalist Soutern Baptists have become the largest Protestant denomination. Naisbitt says, "The Catholic Church is reflecting the evangelical influence by tolerating a full-fledged charismatic movement that make some Southern Baptist look tame". In North America new religions outside of the Judeo-Christian framework are growing: Moslem, followers of Islam, Buddhism, and Korean religions. The fundamentalist have used media to spread their message. Religion is targeting marketing, larger architectures to congregate, music, books and generating billions of dollars in business. The religous leader broadcast taylo made messages and content which are being modeled by feedback from what the people want. Fundamental religion authoritivately spells out the answers. The New Age of Channeling seeks to use meditation, chants, and dream works to increase human intutition. The New Agers and Fundamentalist commonly dislike each other. "New Agers are tired of the tyranny of fundamental religions trying to take away the right of freedom of religion and the press," says Elizabeth Burrows. Harvey Cox says, "a global phenomenon that has to do with the unraveling of modernity" and marks the end of "a kind of faith where science would master all our problems."
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Summary: A 1990-Based Forecast of the Decade Just Past
Review: This book is the 1990 update to the blockbluster, Megatrends, by John Naisbitt from 1982. The date in the title of this book is a reference to the end point of the forecast period. I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses. I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include: (1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology. (2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts. (3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected. (4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism. (5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies. (6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand. (7) women become much more important in leadership roles. (8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor. (9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience. (10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual." The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty. As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature. On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view. Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method. Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of these trends is likely, but what will be the new ones? You'll have to think about that for yourself. After you have finished enjoying this book and thinking about what it means for your future, I suggest that you consider how you can expand your own individual potential. As the Army likes to say, "Be all that you can be." Use the irresistible trends to your advantage for breakthrough gains!
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