Rating: 
Summary: The Art of Long View
Review: The first thing that comes to mind when writting this review is the ease of reading this book. Peter tells his scenerios as if your there talking to him over a few drinks. This makes the reading so much more smoother and easier to understand, which is great if you dont like to read or dont have much time.Peter delivers all of his insights from past experiences in a scenerio form. Meaning he outlines the things that he was up against and then shows what he did. I found this to be a breath of fresh air from text book readings of how to predict the future. By learning from example, one can get a better idea of how, not only to apply the reading, but how to make the most out of it. Two things that always stuck in my mind during the reading was how Peter planed on starting a business selling expensive gardening tools in an economic slump and how to spot trends for the future. By outlining the scenerio for the tools, you see how this was the way to go for Peter. For spotting trends, he showed how something as simple as the magazine rack at your local market can be a wealth of information for spotting trends. If all the magazines are talking about it, it must be a trend. The tools that Peter Schwartz gives to the reader in scenaric form, help to aid the reader in thier quest for future predicting. Wheter that be for business or for day to day life, these scenerios can be applied to just about anything that one can think of. An excellent book that was worth the money.
Rating:
Summary: Planning is everything, plans are nothing by themselves
Review: The reviewer who says this is useless futurist stuff with no "real-world" basis or application has never been in planning efforts of big organizations. Understanding alternative futures, which is what Schwartz very effectively shows the open-minded reader how to begin to do, is a core behavior for leading change. Knowing the alternatives, understanding what indicators to watch for as the future becomes the present, and continual replanning -- that's what makes taking the long view work. It doesn't all take place in the boardrooms, because board members aren't equipped to do this kind of planning -- and the smart organizations that survive know that. His/her cynical single star is emblematic of a closed mind. This is the best book on strategic planning I've found in more than ten years.
Rating: 
Summary: "Real World" Please!
Review: This book is not helpful for organizational change. Org change books should be written by people with "real world" experience. The work of a futurist is nice for idle chat after dinner, but can not help in the real-world decision making that takes place around corporate boardroom tables.
Rating:
Summary: Out of date, meandering and biased.
Review: This book was first published in 1991, the second edition 1996 has very little done to update the content. But, what's worse is the fact that references made by the author to the "Sony Walkman" and other technologies and products actually date the origin of the writing to the early 1980's.
The book is boring and anecdotal; stuffed with name dropping, and score evening and self praise: the CIA were wrong- me and my team were right. Senator "so and so" is a fool he was wrong we were right and bla bla. If you like listening to your grandpa when he's on medication and in a mean mood - buy this book.
The author also exhibits "America Bashing" circa 1988 : That was when the USA was in steep decline and Japan was the light from the East... well times have changed -- there are other reasons to bash the USA but not one reason to praise Japan.
I don't know why all the reviewers from Hawaii gave the book so many stars; but they comprise most of the reviewers and the result has been skewed.
In place I recommend: Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning As a Tool for Social Creativity
by James A. Ogilvy.
If you want to learn more about Japan try ;Dogs and Demons: Tales from the Dark Side of Modern Japan
by Alex Kerr. I recommend this book to Mr. Schwartz.
Rating:
Summary: Open Your Brain and Reperceive the World
Review: This book will help you to learn the scenario planning process. At the beginning, the author presents a short but insightful example how scenario playing an important role for starting up a gardening tool company. The author also shares an "information hunting and gathering process" which tell you where to get some helpful data. Various factors influencing the futures are also discussed (including socials, politics, economic, technologies, and environment). In addition, at the end of the book, the author provides a user's guide (eight steps of how to hold a strategic conversation) and eight steps to develop scenarios which I found very useful. The book enables us to use scenario planning as a tool to deal with uncertain futures. Scenarios help us to awake and "reperceive" others possible and impossible alternative futures including both short and long term. The author also believes that a good scenario leads you to ask better questions. The point of scenario-planning is "to help us suspend our disbelieve in all the futures: to allow us to think that any on of them might place. Then, we can prepare for what we DO NOT think is going to happen." (p.195) However, one annoying thing in this book is that the author keeps referring to chapters (e.g. look in chapter 7) but physically, there are just no chapters number indicated in the book. There are just short titles in the table of content and at the beginning of each chapter. You have to go back and forth between the TOC and chapters to to see which one is actually being referred. However, I consider this is a minor issue comparing to what you will learn from this book. You may find this book useful if you are preparing for your strategic plans, making decisions having critical impacts to your firm or your personal life, or even you are just an ordinary reader, this book will open your mind to a new level of critical thinking and imagination about unfolding futures. Highly recommend.
Rating:
Summary: For strategic exploration, this a MUST READ book!
Review: This is the first book I have read about scenario planning. I was led to this wonderful book as a reader of Whole Earth Review.
I reckon it would be worthwhile to read this book jointly with Arie de Geus's The Living Company. Both books explain very well our innate human ability to strategise - to build future scenarios in our heads - since our caveman days!
With this understanding and insight, you will now begin to reclaim and maximise your inborn ability to explore and create your own future, in business or otherwise.
In Peter's book, the scenario building process is explained at length, with quite easy-to-follow steps.
The two books complement each other. One point I want make very clear: In some way, Peter gives you only the WHAT? and the HOW? while Arie's gives you the WHAT? and the WHY? about scenario building in their respective books.
I particularly like Peter's book because he urges you to REPERCEIVE - a much more powerful !word than RETHINK - whatever you think & do, and also to stay abreast of trends and changes by perusing all kinds of stuff from the FRINGES, on top of your mainstream stuff. A true strategic explorer does both!
I always feel that reading fringe stuff gives you an edge. This is also one of similar major themes (pertaining to secondary sources for reading) pursued by Joel Arthur Barker and Faith Popcorn in their respective books.
It is also worthwhile to explore the author's website, Global Business Network (GBN), especially about further books to read.
To sum up, this is a MUST READ book for your strategic exploration!
Rating:
Summary: Peter Schwartz: A rare practical systems thinker
Review: With all of the uncertainties and unknowns, how can an organization plan effectively and take actions? Peter Schwartz shows how through the elegant use of "scenarios". Peter is one of the giants of systems thinking who has implemented his ideas. He explains his approach this way: "You can tell you have good scenarios when they are both plausible and surprising; when they have the power to break old stereotypes; and when the makers assume ownership of them and put them to work. Scenario making is intensely participatory, or it fails."
Rating: 
Summary: More of a biography then how to make scenarios
Review: Years ago I was introduced by an executive of an oil company to the concept of scenario's. Rather then attempt to estimate what the future would bring what he suggested was that you make four futures. The first was a better then expected , the second was what was expected (the standard world), the third was worse then expected and the four was wipe out - disaster. It took all of few minutes for him to explain it to me. I feel that I learnt as much in that few minutes as I did reading this book about making scenarios. I have not learnt how to make scenario's any better then the oil executive explained it since reading this book. The main problem is that once you create these worlds (or scenarios) what do you do with them. Their are so many different variables and somehow you never seem to predict the ones that happen. So whats the point make it simple and put in as few changes as possible. Also my experience is that decision makers do not want to know, you need 5 to 9 trucks. They want to know how many trucks do we need. The book just goes on and on about the authors life. I know he worked here and there but I am not really interested.
Rating:
Summary: What a great book?
Review: You have to buy The Art of the Long View. I don't know how to explain how great the book is. Don't hesitate to grap one
Rating:
Summary: What a great book?
Review: You have to buy The Art of the Long View. I don't know how to explain how great the book is. Don't hesitate to grap one
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