Rating: 
Summary: How Forces of Nature Shape Human History
Review: "Catastrophe" refers to a mid-6th century climactic cataclysm that author David Keys believes destroyed the geopolitical status quo of late antiquity and gave birth to the protomodern era from which our current world circumstances derived. According to the hypothesis put forward in "Catastrophe", around the year 535 AD there occurred a major atmospheric disturbance that blocked out much of the Earth's sunlight all over the globe. Tree ring and ice-core evidence, as well as archeological and contemporary written accounts indicate that there was, indeed, severe climactic disruption at this time, and that it almost certainly was the result of a tremendous volcanic explosion. In "Catastrophe", David Keys describes the ways in which he believes the famine, drought and plague that resulted from this explosive event directly and indirectly led to the downfall of the contemporary political powers and the emergence of the new political entities and forces which shaped the world we live in today. As every continent was affected by the loss of sunlight, Keys hypothesizes that the fall of the Roman Empire, the emergence of Islam and the Arab and Ottoman Empires, the reshaping of Eastern Europe, the creation of the modern nations of Japan, China, and Korea in the East and the European powers in the West, the collapse of the great Mesoamerican Empire of Teotihuacan and the emergence of the Mayans, among other great shifts in power, were all indirect results of the climactic changes unleashed in 535 AD. I find it unlikely that all of the developments that David Keys attributes to the "catastrophe" would not have occurred otherwise. While the direct consequences of a single event are predictable and substantiable, the indirect consequences of something are, of course, impossible to know for sure as there are other factors involved. How many of the developments which occurred in the centuries following the eruption of 535 AD would not have occurred, or would have occurred at a different time, or would have occurred by different means, if the climactic catastrophe had not set change in motion is impossible to say. But David Keys' point is well taken: "Forces of nature and other mechanisms" beyond human control have played -and may continue to play- a fundamental role in human history, culture, and achievements. "Catastrophe" reintroduces the concept of determinism to the discussion of human history, which has been unfashionable for a while now and is due for reconsideration by the academic community. Keys also gives the reader a nice overview of the transition from the order of late antiquity to that of protomodern nations all over the globe, which is interesting and informative regardless of what may have instigated the changes.
Rating: 
Summary: Rethinking the Dark Ages and the Origins of the Modern World
Review: "Catastrophe" rocketed to fame as a result of a PBS series which devoted two one hour episodes to its thesis: that an eruption of what was probably a monstrous earlier version of the volcano Krakatoa created weather disruptions and tidal phenomena which wiped out many Classical civilizations, brought on LITERAL "dark ages" in many societies, and helped to create the Medieval world and lay the foundations of the modern. The Keys theory is so widely accepted now (just five years after the publication of the book) because it is not only backed by masses of contemporary documentary evidence, but also because it explains, better than any other theory, the global decline of civilization in the 6th Century of the Common Era. In mathematical terms, it is "elegant." It is a latter-day Occam's Razor cutting through generations of theories based upon individual cultures or isolated events to show that they could all have at their heart a single event which triggered, as the title says, global "Catastrophe." (Definitely with a capital "C"!) Keys uses Chinese records to show that a loud bang was heard over hundreds of square miles around 535, and that this was followed by a fall of yellow ash. Other records, from Japan and parts of modern Indonesia, support this occurence. Keys, after weighing and rejecting alternative theories, suggests that only a massive volcanic eruption could be the culprit for the event recorded by the Chinese, and shows, decade by decade, using historical records, dendrochronological (tree ring) records, ice samples, and other measurements, that what happened was no ordinary eruption, but possibly the largest volcanic eruption in history, which darkened skies around the world, creating a "volcanic winter" which brought famine and plague in its wake. Amazingly, he does it in plain, easy-to-read language, a hallmark of historiographic greatness. Keys documents major climatic disruptions and uses established scientific models to project the impact of these changes on people as diverse as the Central Asian Avar and Turkish horse nomads, East African herdsmen, South American fishermen, and Anglo-Saxon and Britannic farmers in the modern British Isles. His conclusion is stunning: the eruption triggered waves of nomadic migrations which helped to bring about the decline of the recently revived Byzantine empire (which was well on its way to reconquering much of the old Roman Empire), destroyed flourishing urban cultures in the Americas, ruined the powerful Southern Arabian kingdoms which had existed for centuries (thus creating the power vacuum later filled by Mohammad's follwers), and also wrought devastation remembered in Arthurian romances. One of the crucial contributions which Keys has made is an explanation of the otherwise unexplainable irruption of the bubonic plague out of Africa and into the Byzantine and Indian worlds. The plague -- which spread as far as Britain and permanently ended any chance that an independent Celtic Church would be established, separate from Rome -- killed millions of then and former Romaions (inhabitants of the original Roman Empire) and blasted any hopes of re-establishing the Empire, relegating it instead into an ever-dwindling Greek-centered Eastern Empire, subject to nomadic incursions from Arabia and central Asia. In the Americas, Teotihuacan and Tikal alike suffered from near-simultaneous climatic disruption which ended their civilizations -- contemporaneously with the decline of the great cities of the Classical Eurasian world. Only the Keys Catastrophe theory explains BOTH phenomena -- the end of urban cultures in the Americas AND in Africa-Eurasia. In east Asia, Keys blames the super-eruption for the famines whch led to the revolt of Hou Jing, which ended southern Chinese independence and led ultimately to the establishment of the Sui Dynasty and the near-continuous unification of China as a single cultural entity since then. In 535, the very year which Keys gives for the eruption, the Korean state of Silla, probably faced with climatic turmoil and famine as bad as China's, abandoned its pagan past and adopted Buddhism, laying the groundwork for the unification of THAT country, too. Again, no other theory provides a unified explanation for the near-simultaneous events. The Keys theory is not without its weaknesses. I have particular doubts about the Indonesian chronicles which he utilizes, but which, if authentic, indicate that the Sunda Strait is a relatively modern phenomenon, and, until 535-536, Java and Sumatra formed a super-island, dominated by an unfortuante civlization (called Holotan by the Chinese). If the records Keys uses are correct, Holotan was destroyed (along with much of the island) by the super-eruption, putting it alongside Thera as a major cultural center destroyed by a single volcano. Undeniably, however, major changes took place in Southeast Asia after 535, including the establishment of Proto-Cambodia and Proto-Thailand only one generation later, along with other, more diffuse civilizations, presumably filling the gap left by the vanished Holotan. The Keys theory will likely be subject to much criticism in the years ahead, and further refinements, but it is already so well-established as a convenient explanation for the catastrophic events of the Sixth Century C.E. that anyone who wants to understand histories of the period being written nowadays simply MUST be familiar with "Catastrophe." I give "Catastrophe" Five Stars, the highest rating, for its historiographic significance, ease of reading, and current impact on historical thinking.
Rating:
Summary: Rethinking the Dark Ages and the Origins of the Modern World
Review: "Catastrophe" rocketed to fame as a result of a PBS series which devoted two one hour episodes to its thesis: that an eruption of what was probably a monstrous earlier version of the volcano Krakatoa created weather disruptions and tidal phenomena which wiped out many Classical civilizations, brought on LITERAL "dark ages" in many societies, and helped to create the Medieval world and lay the foundations of the modern. The Keys theory is so widely accepted now (just five years after the publication of the book) because it is not only backed by masses of contemporary documentary evidence, but also because it explains, better than any other theory, the global decline of civilization in the 6th Century of the Common Era. In mathematical terms, it is "elegant." It is a latter-day Occam's Razor cutting through generations of theories based upon individual cultures or isolated events to show that they could all have at their heart a single event which triggered, as the title says, global "Catastrophe." (Definitely with a capital "C"!) Keys uses Chinese records to show that a loud bang was heard over hundreds of square miles around 535, and that this was followed by a fall of yellow ash. Other records, from Japan and parts of modern Indonesia, support this occurence. Keys, after weighing and rejecting alternative theories, suggests that only a massive volcanic eruption could be the culprit for the event recorded by the Chinese, and shows, decade by decade, using historical records, dendrochronological (tree ring) records, ice samples, and other measurements, that what happened was no ordinary eruption, but possibly the largest volcanic eruption in history, which darkened skies around the world, creating a "volcanic winter" which brought famine and plague in its wake. Amazingly, he does it in plain, easy-to-read language, a hallmark of historiographic greatness. Keys documents major climatic disruptions and uses established scientific models to project the impact of these changes on people as diverse as the Central Asian Avar and Turkish horse nomads, East African herdsmen, South American fishermen, and Anglo-Saxon and Britannic farmers in the modern British Isles. His conclusion is stunning: the eruption triggered waves of nomadic migrations which helped to bring about the decline of the recently revived Byzantine empire (which was well on its way to reconquering much of the old Roman Empire), destroyed flourishing urban cultures in the Americas, ruined the powerful Southern Arabian kingdoms which had existed for centuries (thus creating the power vacuum later filled by Mohammad's follwers), and also wrought devastation remembered in Arthurian romances. One of the crucial contributions which Keys has made is an explanation of the otherwise unexplainable irruption of the bubonic plague out of Africa and into the Byzantine and Indian worlds. The plague -- which spread as far as Britain and permanently ended any chance that an independent Celtic Church would be established, separate from Rome -- killed millions of then and former Romaions (inhabitants of the original Roman Empire) and blasted any hopes of re-establishing the Empire, relegating it instead into an ever-dwindling Greek-centered Eastern Empire, subject to nomadic incursions from Arabia and central Asia. In the Americas, Teotihuacan and Tikal alike suffered from near-simultaneous climatic disruption which ended their civilizations -- contemporaneously with the decline of the great cities of the Classical Eurasian world. Only the Keys Catastrophe theory explains BOTH phenomena -- the end of urban cultures in the Americas AND in Africa-Eurasia. In east Asia, Keys blames the super-eruption for the famines whch led to the revolt of Hou Jing, which ended southern Chinese independence and led ultimately to the establishment of the Sui Dynasty and the near-continuous unification of China as a single cultural entity since then. In 535, the very year which Keys gives for the eruption, the Korean state of Silla, probably faced with climatic turmoil and famine as bad as China's, abandoned its pagan past and adopted Buddhism, laying the groundwork for the unification of THAT country, too. Again, no other theory provides a unified explanation for the near-simultaneous events. The Keys theory is not without its weaknesses. I have particular doubts about the Indonesian chronicles which he utilizes, but which, if authentic, indicate that the Sunda Strait is a relatively modern phenomenon, and, until 535-536, Java and Sumatra formed a super-island, dominated by an unfortuante civlization (called Holotan by the Chinese). If the records Keys uses are correct, Holotan was destroyed (along with much of the island) by the super-eruption, putting it alongside Thera as a major cultural center destroyed by a single volcano. Undeniably, however, major changes took place in Southeast Asia after 535, including the establishment of Proto-Cambodia and Proto-Thailand only one generation later, along with other, more diffuse civilizations, presumably filling the gap left by the vanished Holotan. The Keys theory will likely be subject to much criticism in the years ahead, and further refinements, but it is already so well-established as a convenient explanation for the catastrophic events of the Sixth Century C.E. that anyone who wants to understand histories of the period being written nowadays simply MUST be familiar with "Catastrophe." I give "Catastrophe" Five Stars, the highest rating, for its historiographic significance, ease of reading, and current impact on historical thinking.
Rating: 
Summary: Not Catastrophic....But a Little Suspect in Places
Review: Catastrophe, by David Keys, is an effort to attribute several significant changes in history that occurred in or near the 6th Centuary AD to drastic global weather changes, and to attribute those changes to a volcanic eruption. Keys ammasses an enormous amount of evidence to support these attributions, enough by itself to make the work impressive. However, on the whole his trail of evidence is a bit suspect. Keys offers ample convincing evidence that the 6th century AD saw startling changes in weather. In doing so, he presents data from literally around the globe; moreover, his various sources of information seem to corroborate one another. This represents the most solid part of his argument, although he didn't tell us if he omitted evidence that didn't support his conclusions. From here, Keys proceeds to suggest what affects this weather pattern may have had on the world. Some of these suggestions are more believable than others. His attribution of plague outbreaks to the weather patterns seems reasonable. Similarly a discussion of impacts on the Roman Empire is well argued and somewhat supported. From there, though, Keys trots about the globe presenting marginal evidence that most of the major events of the 6th Century (and some thereafter) are directly attributable to this weather pattern. In doing so, Keys includes a lot of marginal evidence and reaches for some causal relationships that are probably a lot more complicated than his book suggests. In particular, I found his version of events in the Middle East, Europe and China not so well supported. I was a little bothered by the language and evidence of some of these chapters. Frequently, Keys uses phrases such as "almost certainly" to describe a cause-and-effect relationship, without providing any real supporting evidence. In one place, his endnote to such a comment simply repeats the "almost certainly" phrase without offering any additional information or citing a source. I think this fact really weakens the credibility of his work. As he moves toward the end, Keys tries to pinpoint the source of the weather patterns. Toward this end, he nominates the eruption of a volcano in Java. However, in doing so, he needs to significantly re-interpret Javan historical accounts based on second and third hand sources. And while there's some limited basis for doing so, the connection is, from my point of view, far from a slam-dunk. It's easy to see that Keys left this section for the end because it's the least supported part of his chain of argument and potentially unravels the whole thesis. On the whole, the book is an impressive projection of a lot of focused research. Sadly a lot of the evidence presented is weak in supporting Keys premise. In the end, it's easy for the reader to see that some, perhaps even a lot, of the things that Keys suggests caused major historical changes are credible. Still, a lot aren't. I give the book three stars for pulling together and presenting this information, which is in itself an impressive feat. Keys is not convincing in telling us that a volcanic eruption in 535 AD rewrote most of human history from that point on, however. Other than that, the book is interesting and fairly readable, and worth the time to take a look.
Rating:
Summary: Both very good and very mediocre.
Review: From browsing on the net, I knew that many experts had problems with the factual basis for Keys' theory. What I was surprised at was that in many cases the connections between cause and effect was weak, even accepting all Key's facts. I am thinking, for example, of his treatment of China and Korea. I found the discussion of the fall of the Roman/Byzantine empires to be longer than it needed to be, too much like a conventional history. Treatment of other subjects was very interesting, exemplified by his discussion of the British isles. The history was mostly new to me, and without unnecessary detail; Keys' theory as to why the Celtic west was more devastated by plague than the Anglo/Saxon east, tipping the balance of power, seemed to make a lot of sense.
Rating:
Summary: Good reading.
Review: I enjoyed "Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World" rather more than I initially expected I would. I had anticipated from the description of the book something more on the line of "Floods, Famines and Emporers" or possibly "The Little Ice Age" by Fagan, both of which I enjoyed. The latter books look at the direct effects of weather and climate, more specifically at the el Nino and NAO, on the course of world history. While Keys does use climate--and it's effect on plague carrying organisms--as a binding thread to his work, he must restate this fact in the summary of each of his chapters to remind the reader. In Fagan climate is the central focus of the work. So I had to re-estimate the direction and theme of the book, something I hadn't expected to do. What Keys' book does do and does well, is to examine a broad geographical area within a segment of history ( about 530-1200 AD). Although this is not generally my era of choice (I prefer ancient and prehistoric), I have to admit to having been fascinated by Key's construction of the period. By drawing many of the loose strands of the human drama together, he illuminates the stage upon which many events of our own time were enacted. This period tends to be chaotic and difficult to study because of its fragmented character. Many aspects, particularly events in marginal areas, tend to have been wholly neglected by researchers as they focused on Western culture, as represented by the Byzantines, and Eastern culture and the spread of Islam. As I have often maintained after reading books that dealt with odd topics relating to marginal areas (as for instance in the books "The Mummies of Urumchi" or "The Tarim Mummies"), it is in peripheral areas, the cross roads of the world, that true understanding of world history probably lies. It seems as though the activity in the "wings" determines to a far greater extent then often realized, what happens on the center stage of human history. Keys makes this very evident. Because of his choice of time period with its proximity to our own, his discussion of the events that took place in these back corridors of the world and their effects on the course of modern history makes the importance of peripheral events much more apparent to the reader. For instance, his discussion of the effects of climate on the movement of plague infested animals in Africa is very illuminating. This is especially true as it pertains to the density of human settlement and to the effects of international connections along trade routes. The historic spread of Bubonic and other plagues throughout the world by these means has important implications for modern nations facing movements of antibiotic resistant disease organisms and alien plant and animal pests into naive environments by these same means but at a greatly accelerated rate. (The books "The Parrot?s Lament" and "The Future of Life" both focus on these threats to the modern world.) Of greatest interest is the author's concluding chapter which projects the world into the future after looking at some of the underlying principles of change in the past. Some of the author's geologic scenarios, though interesting and already known to me, are a little far fetched--more the stuff of a made for TV movie--but the possibility of a major disaster that realigns the world is not. His insights into the outcome of such events is probably quite close to the truth. "Significantly, this [a major volcanic catastrophe] would have the related long-term effect of freeing up the Third World, removing superpower influence over it. Its debt burden would simply vanish....In the long term, the catastrophe would, I believe, have the effect of reducing the geopolitical imbalance between the West and the Third World. Although Asia, Africa, and possibly South America would lose hundreds of millions of their inhabitants to famine and disease, they would in the end emerge stronger rather than weaker vis-a-vie the West (p. 279)." A book well worth reading for the history buff or anyone interested in the effects of weather, disease, and mass population movements on the course of history.
Rating:
Summary: Great overview of a poorly understood period of history
Review: I found this book to be a fascinating look at a time in history that is often skipped and glossed over as simply the 'dark' ages - indeed, the thesis of this book explains why it turned out to be the dark ages. Although the book discusses a particular disasterous event and its after effects, I found the world-wide overview of the time (500 AD - 1000 AD) exciting in and of itself. Few popular history works discuss this period in any detail - especially from a truly global perspective as is done in this work. The author shows that a catastrophe (he keeps it secret until the end of the book - an interesing device for a non-fiction book) set in motion a chain of events that led to the final collapse of the ancient world of Rome, Persia, etc... This led to the genesis of the modern world. Overall, his explanations are convincing, but I'm not so sure that the world would have been totally different had it not been for the event. For instance, Rome had been declining for years before the event so it may have collasped anyways and led to a fragmented Europe. The only other thing I found lacking in the book, is a little more discussion into the scientific evidence at the catastrophe site itself. This may simply be a function of the hypothesis being so new that a lot of evidence has not been collected yet. If you are interested in the 'dark' ages or if you have any interest in History, Geology, or Meteorolgy you should find the book fascinating (and scary).
Rating:
Summary: New research-new explanations.
Review: I say at the onset that I have been convinced by the blizzard of archaeological facts presented by David Keys in support of his theory that it was a major climate catastrophe that occurred around 535AD that was the primary cause for worldwide social and political upheavals during subsequent years. I can easily recall sitting in lectures in the sixties and wondering why certain events happened when they did but never questioning the established, albeit very murky, chain of events laid out in the historical calendar-this calendar being the accepted pattern of unfolding world historical events even though that pattern didn't explain some huge questions that loomed in the mind of an untutored student. Key's has assembled a collection of data from geographically disparate regions of the world and this extensive body of data corroborates, in my opinion, his thesis; I thank him for illuminating the engine for the worldwide string of monumental disruptions that began roughly around 535AD.
Rating:
Summary: Praise for Catastrophe
Review: Keys' aim of the book was well stated in the introduction - "to help change people's view of the past - and of the future". After reading this 300-plus-page description of fairly well documented research and speculation, I found his approach to the information novel more than anything. For the first time in history, we have the opportunity to effectively investigate and analyze collected data from the time period between 535 and 536. Keys presents us with an opportunity to view tree ring evidence, geopolitical instabilities, and geological speculation in the context of a worldwide historical framework. Moreover, he suggests that "a force of nature ultimately lay behind much of the change experienced by the world in the sixth and seventh centuries A.D." As someone outside of the field of archaeology, anthropology or geological science, I found the historical perspective that is offered unique (it's definitely the first time I've read anything about the evolution of religions, volcanology and the rise and fall of civilizations in the same book). My one critique concerning the writing style itself is that it tends to be repetitive in places, especially toward the end of chapters, and it's clear that Keys wishes to play to the historically savy audiences as much as possible, bouncing between discussions of Ashkenazi non-Cohenic Levites and non-Levite Ashkenazi Jews, which makes some passages difficult to follow (what was the point of this chapter, you'll ask yourself). There are chapters which tend to be more academic than explanatory, delving into details that could have been omitted without losing the spirit of the work. Overall, I found the book enjoyable and a good introduction into the subject. If one day more conclusive evidence surfaces from the interest generated, I applaude Mr. Keys for the effort. I think he's done the scientific community a great service and offers a new perspective on what might be considered dry history.
Rating:
Summary: A fascinating historical detective story
Review: Recent years have seen the publication of several books offering radical new explanations of ancient events or presenting sweeping revisionist theories of history. Examples include Noah's Flood, Eden in the East, Voyages of the Pyramid Builders, and 1421: The Year China Discovered America. Catastrophe is one of the best of these. Archaeological writer David Keys has assembled multiple arguments supporting his theory that a major natural disaster around the year 535 altered the world's climate for years, causing famine and plague and triggering the collapse of existing political systems. He gives us brief but well-written summaries of events that sprang from this catastrophe, including the rise of Islam. According to Keys, this event ended an old world and gave birth to a new one whose patterns we still see today. After a process of elimination, Keys proposes that the cause of this disaster was a volcano in what is now the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra. He warns that natural catastrophes in the future could change the world we know. Even if you don't agree with his conclusion, you will learn much from his reviews of historical events. This is fascinating stuff, and highly readable.
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