Description:
In the world of technology, one of the best-known maxims is Moore's Law, a 1965 prediction by the cofounder of Intel, which states that computer chips will double in speed and power every 18 months. For many, Moore's Law has come to symbolize the idea that all aspects of technology--from medicine to weather prediction--will continue to move forward at the startling rates we've grown used to. In Defying the Market, investment guru Stephen Leeb presents a different interpretation. He notes that people back in the 1960s continued smoking, even when they knew it would make them sick, because they felt sure science would find a cure for cancer by the time they got it. As we all know, the cure hasn't been found, and Deeb feels that most technological innovation has in fact ground to a halt. Science, he argues, is limited by the fact it depends on computers to make new discoveries. But we can't really make computers any smarter--only cheaper and faster. In addition to a technological slowdown, Leeb also sees an unabating demand for worldwide economic growth. Put these two phenomena together, and you've got inflation, which is not entirely bad news for investors. He predicts that oil and gold stocks will rise from the modest positions they've held in the low-inflation '90s; that computer stocks like Dell and Gateway will falter because, as prices rise, users won't feel a need to pay for incremental improvements in speed and whiz-bangery; and that while only the largest tech companies--such as Microsoft and Cisco--will continue to profit, food companies such as Pioneer Hi-Bred and tractor maker Deere Co. are better bets. This is one of the most contrarian, challenging books an investor can read. One can imagine the rebuttals pouring in from the scientific, economic, and investment worlds. But if he's right, those who heed Leeb's advice stand to make more money than a Deere tractor can pull. --Lou Schuler
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