Rating: 
Summary: An insightful analysis of prospects on the Korean peninsula
Review: By drawing on other-country parallels such as German unification, or the experiences of China and Vietnam as they re-engaged with the world community, "Avoiding the Apocalypse" provides interesting insights about N. Korea's future and the possible implications for the South. This book is unique among other N. Korea titles in that it is underpinned by rigorous economic analysis while, at the same time, exhibiting a sound understanding of geopolitical dynamics of the peninsula and of the interests of key player countries (S. Korea, Japan, US, China). The book presents a comprehensive analysis of N. Korea's economy and policies (past and present), and an assessment of future prospects for the Korea peninsula in light of several plausible alternative scenarios of policy developments in the North. "Avoiding the Apocalypse" contains a wealth and depth of information Mr. Noland has obviously acquired through his research and interactions with key economic, political and military personalities in North and South Korea, Japan, the US and China. I found this book to be very well written, and in a style accessible to a general educated readership. Unusually for such a weighty book, the text includes cross-cultural sayings (i.e. proverbs) and metaphors, in addition to insider quotes, that make the book an interesting read indeed. I recommend the book highly for anyone interested in a thorough review of N. Korea and in knowing what the current state of play is as regards N. Korea's integration into the world community of nations. If you're interested in a fresh and intellectually stimulating perspective on the events unfolding on the Korean peninsula, this is also the book for you.
Rating:
Summary: Constructive Alternatives
Review: During the Cold War, US policymakers focused on security. In the globalized world, the challenge is to integrate economics into the analytical framework. Dr. Marcus Noland has done this with his book "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas." He demonstrates how economics and domestic political concerns have combined to create the odd situation in which the US is building two nuclear reactors for a country with which it fought a war and does not maintain diplomatic relations. Most importantly, he suggests constructive alternatives to this most strange state of affairs. The US and its allies, including South Korea, Japan, and the EU, should consider carefully Noland's proposal for revisiting the Agreed Framework.
Rating:
Summary: Constructive Alternatives
Review: During the Cold War, US policymakers focused on security. In the globalized world, the challenge is to integrate economics into the analytical framework. Dr. Marcus Noland has done this with his book "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas." He demonstrates how economics and domestic political concerns have combined to create the odd situation in which the US is building two nuclear reactors for a country with which it fought a war and does not maintain diplomatic relations. Most importantly, he suggests constructive alternatives to this most strange state of affairs. The US and its allies, including South Korea, Japan, and the EU, should consider carefully Noland's proposal for revisiting the Agreed Framework.
Rating:
Summary: Economics for the real world?
Review: For someone who travels to North Korea on a regular basis I was
extremely disappointed with this book. I have seen many changes take
place in North Korea in the past 4 years which are completely missed
in this book. ...In addition, the title is very misleading as it
gives no suggestions of how to avoid the Apocalypse or what is meant
by apocalypse. There is no plan. No suggestions of efforts or
projects. If that were not bad enough, the book does refer to silly
ideas like the collapse of North Korea. This will be seen as
ridiculous to anyone who has actually lived in the developing world.
Rating:
Summary: The Book From Which Policies Should Flow
Review: For those who try to understand the conundrum that is Korea, this book is a stiff cold wind, and entirely welcome. Indeed it is a daunting read, full of econometric and logical analyses, but Avoiding the Apocalypse : The Future of the Two Koreas repays careful reading many times over. Aside from the rigorous analysis, however, are the three concluding chapters. The author discusses three alternative paths for North Korea's future, and reaches a conclusion. Not only is the author open-minded, but the prospect for each scenario opens up possible policy implications for all countries involved. This book also provides useful information on South Korea, even though it is billed as a book on North Korea. In many ways, the author's reflections on Korean history and South Korean development are more useful than the North Korean sections. Before North Korea can be dispassionately analyzed, South Korean success must be analyzed. I put down this book and reached the conclusion, that the world just may have to live with a North Korea, de-villified, but certainly dangerous, for a long time. South Korea also faces more difficulties than it realizes, and should look at North Korea as an example in negative. Still, with all the analysis and history, the mystery that is Korea is still there in the shadows. This book does admirably well with figures and facts, but so much is misunderstood. This book does as best as any could with this emotional subject, and, hopefully, will be the basis for thought, not rhetoric.
Rating:
Summary: Exploiting the post-communist countries experiences ...
Review: The central issues of this book are not only of importance to the Koreans themselves but to the United States, Russia, China and Japan. One of its great strengths is to place the Korean experience not only in the context of Asia, but importantly, in the context of the experience of Eastern European countries. The case of North Korea might be considered the pupil exceeding the teacher: North Korea took central planning and political repression to extremes never achieved in the Soviet Union. Now it has a large industrial sector and missiles, but it cannot feed itself. The experiences of Russia, Belarus, Romania (not just China)are quite important to understanding the future of North Korea. The book uses good analytical models to understand the situation and does a very good job of exploiting the knowledge of Russian and other Eastern Bloc scholars' insight into North Korea.
Rating:
Summary: a superb work on Korea
Review: The Korean peninsula faces a complex foreign policy crisis involving the interplay of economic and security issues. "Avoiding the Apocalypse" is magisterial in scope, integrating the economic, political, and security dimensions. The sheer breadth of the book is remarkable. The book covers the development of the South Korean economy and the financial crisis that has rocked the South in the past few years. It offers an insightful look into the workings of the North Korean economy, and how the failings of that economy led to both strategic adventurism and famine. The final third of the book is devoted to an analysis of future scenarios on the peninsula. Noland identifies as most likely a scenario in which the North undertakes ad hoc policy adjustments while supported by engagement with South Korea, China, Japan, and possibly even the United States. While the book is thoroughly researched and referenced, its tone is quite lively and accessible to a broad audience -- at times even drolly humorous. An excellent and important work on Korea.
Rating:
Summary: the cost of unification
Review: The situation in Korea is important for all of Northeast Asia. This book gives a very detailed analysis of the cost of rebuilding the North Korean economy. It also gives an estimate of how much Japan will pay North Korea for "post-colonial claims." People in Japan and other countries should read this book.
Rating:
Summary: First-rate analysis of a critical issue
Review: This book is a delight - the author combines serious economic and political analysis with rich knowledge of institutions and history on the Korean peninsula. Moreover, he knows how to write. He makes sophisticated arguments seem easy. For readers concerned with the future of South and North Korea, this is essential reading. The book consists of a thorough overview of the current situation on the peninsula with a brief but insightful review of the historical processes that have brought us to this point. It distills in a accessible manner the vital insights from the author's formal models of the Korean economy. Most importantly, it weaves all of these different viewpoints into a coherent and persuasive story.
Rating:
Summary: a superb work on Korea
Review: Unfortunately the book is based on academic and Washington DC think tank sources opposed to actual research in North Korea. A more useful approach would have been for the book to be based on actual recent research in North Korea as well as other transitioning economies in Asia such as Vietnam, Laos and Mongolia. Access and visas to these countries, as well as to North Korea, can be made in Beijing from which there are easy flights. North Korea is a fascinating country and well worth the visit. It is disappointing that this book, like so many others today, rely on secondary sources instead of direct research. This seems to be a trend among American books from Washington DC. Perhaps in Europe we have different set of standards for our academic research so maybe I am being unfairly critical.
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