The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators

Rating:
Summary: Superb Overview of Major Economic Indicators for Traders
Review: Even if you once knew all the ways that economic indicators are defined, data collected and reported, chances are that all of this has changed (unless your knowledge is less than 2 years old). In addition, the best way to use these indicators is constantly changing as new analytical tests are developed and back-checked. So if you are the chief economist for a Wall Street investment bank or brokerage firm, you probably don't need this book. But if you hold stock and bonds in the United States less often than 10 years, you can profit from this book.

Each chapter provides a delightful history of how a relevant indicator was developed, how the measurements are made now, how to apply the indicator for stock and bond investing and the latest technique for getting an "edge" on just looking at the indicator alone. The material is written in the kind of simple language that almost anyone can easily understand. The math is simple, too. If you can do arithmetic, you can understand this book.

There are individual chapters GDP; leading, lagging and coincident indicators; employment; industrial production and capacity utilization; indices from the Institute for Supply Management; manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders; manufacturing, trade inventories and sales; new residential construction; consumer confidence and sentiment; advance monthly sale for retail trade and food services; personal income and outlays; and the consumer and producer price indices. Each discussion looks at how these data help you understand the future business cycle, interest rates, corporate profits and Federal Reserve actions.

I thought that the graphs were one of the best parts of the book. You can judge for yourself how powerful the relationships are that Mr. Yamarone outlines.

As I finished this book, I realized how nice it would be to have similar books for consumer decisions (like when to refinance your home, etc.) using the same kind of indicators in different ways.

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Rating:
Summary: Superb Overview of Major Economic Indicators for Traders
Review: Even if you once knew all the ways that economic indicators are defined, data collected and reported, chances are that all of this has changed (unless your knowledge is less than 2 years old). In addition, the best way to use these indicators is constantly changing as new analytical tests are developed and back-checked. So if you are the chief economist for a Wall Street investment bank or brokerage firm, you probably don't need this book. But if you hold stock and bonds in the United States less often than 10 years, you can profit from this book.

Each chapter provides a delightful history of how a relevant indicator was developed, how the measurements are made now, how to apply the indicator for stock and bond investing and the latest technique for getting an "edge" on just looking at the indicator alone. The material is written in the kind of simple language that almost anyone can easily understand. The math is simple, too. If you can do arithmetic, you can understand this book.

There are individual chapters GDP; leading, lagging and coincident indicators; employment; industrial production and capacity utilization; indices from the Institute for Supply Management; manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders; manufacturing, trade inventories and sales; new residential construction; consumer confidence and sentiment; advance monthly sale for retail trade and food services; personal income and outlays; and the consumer and producer price indices. Each discussion looks at how these data help you understand the future business cycle, interest rates, corporate profits and Federal Reserve actions.

I thought that the graphs were one of the best parts of the book. You can judge for yourself how powerful the relationships are that Mr. Yamarone outlines.

As I finished this book, I realized how nice it would be to have similar books for consumer decisions (like when to refinance your home, etc.) using the same kind of indicators in different ways.

.

Rating:
Summary: useful as a reference, could have been much more
Review: This book contains lots of factual information and useful overviews as to what the key economic indicators are, how they are constructed, what their purpose is, and how they work. With that said, it felt more like a pocketbook of facts and figures, similar to the ones published by The Economist, than an actual "guide" for traders.

In the introduction, the book is offered as a useful source for anyone new to these indicators, but Yamarone never really mentions one of the most important aspects of trading: how to prioritize information flow. The drawback of fundamental trading is the susceptibility to "analysis paralysis," i.e. the danger of information overload causing you to freeze like a deer in the headlights. On the other side of the coin, traders who try to digest a mountain of information without prioritizing it are more likely to make their decisions based on a handful of dominating factors, or even hunches, and then simply use the additional supportive data they find to justify those decisions. Studies of CIA intelligence analyst decision making habits show that when there is a surplus of information, it's a natural tendency to only use a small portion of the information available, while incorrectly assuming that all of it is being utilized.

Yamarone does not mention these pitfalls, nor does he cover the reality of theme trading and indicator fashion: that indicators and market relationships go in and out of style, much like short skirts or thigh high boots on the catwalks of Paris and Milan. Traders will collectively switch their focus from one relationship to another, one data set to another: the trade deficit means nothing for a while, then suddenly it means everything. The Employment Situation is critical for a time, then later inconsequential as long term yields come to the fore. It's all about context, and that isn't addressed at all.

In writing for a large audience, Yamarone also made sure to keep his opinions bland and uncontroversial. I found this a little disappointing in terms of what was left out. For example, in the chapter on New Residential Construction:

"Before the 2001 recession, housing starts were the most reliable and accurate measure of U.S. economic health... the 2001 recession broke this pattern. Housing starts remained strong during the downturn because historically low inflation kept mortgage rates low..."

For a student of economic history -or a trader wishing to profit from macro economic movements- this is a very interesting subject. Has a longstanding relationship been declared invalid by the 2001 pattern, or was it a case of unprecedented doubling down via credit stimulus? Were mortgage rates low simply because inflation was low, or more because the fed was hell bent on pumping easy money into the economy to avoid a reckoning? Is it historically a good thing to try and avoid all painful recessions, or are painful recessions occasionally necessary, as a cleansing process after a period of extreme speculative excess, with bad-to-worse consequences for putting them off? Is there greater risk when a paper asset bubble transitions into a real estate valuation bubble? Yamarone sails past all of this, like an amateur checkers player doing commentary for a chess tournament. My guess is that he is well aware of these subtexts, but his overriding goal was to avoid fistfights and not offend anyone. Milktoast commentary is the lukewarm result.

In my reviews I frequently suggest alternate titles that better reflect a book's contents. I would call this one "the mba grad's guide to economic indicators," or maybe "the junior analyst's guide to economic indicators." If it were truely aimed at traders, it would have a lot more to say about prioritizing information flow, gaming expectations, and paying attention to context, context, context. As it stands, Yamarone has put together a decent reference source to grab off the shelf when a wallflower data set becomes the latest belle of the Wall Street ball. By that measure, it's a worthwhile purchase.

Rating:
Summary: Not just for traders. Easy to read book for anyone.
Review: This book was surprisingly easy to read and understand. Very interesting material for anyone curious about the factors that influence the economy and what measures to watch to understand where we are heading. Concentrates on the major indicators and tells you where the data comes from. Illustrated with lots of charts and tables to help you understand the relationships over time. Organized so that the information builds up to the more complex relationships. Though written by an economist, this book is surprisingly easy to read and the material was interesting (even for someone that slept through econ 101, like me). The most useful economics book I have run across. Highly recommended.

Rating:
Summary: Quality book but too factual
Review: This is a quality book without question. However, it provides too much factual descriptions about all the indices rather than important, key insights. I often had a hard time finishing every chapter completely. It often proves difficult (if not impossible) to get a hold of the data mentioned in the book without subscribing to a professional service like Bloomberg. 20% of this book gives 80% of the insight : I'd rather had seen the author explore that 20% in depth.