The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market

Rating:
Summary: Disappointing,
Review: In this book, Soros openly admits that he is completely unable to predict major developments in finance and economics. In addition, he admits that he has never been able to profit consistently in commodities markets. What does that leave us with? Soros is a glorified stock picker, and the Quantum Fund, a glorified mutual fund. Soros does not discuss equity analysis techniques, however; the book is comprised of macroeconomic analysis and prediction which is - by Soros' own admission - of questionable value.

Indeed, it is almost embarassing to read Soros' predictions - that the dollar will depreciate dramatically in the 90s, that Japan will surpass the US as economic leader, that the US economy will succomb to fiscal and trade deficits. Soros' predictions are not just wrong, they are the complete opposite of what actually has occurred.

Soros argues that he cannot predict anything, he can only explain economic developments as they unfold. If his predictions are invalid, however, why are his explanations valid? His predictions and explanations are premised on the same set of erroneous beliefs.

Those seeking practical and accurate financial theory should not read this book. Those seeking chapters like The Quandary of the Social Sciences and Reagan's Imperial Circle are invited to tackle this self-aggrandizing book. Better choices: Intermarket Technical Analysis by Murphy or Macro Trading and Investment Strategies by Burstein.

Rating:
Summary: Financial Philosophy From Another Planet.
Review: Oh my goodness! What the heck is this? I can't tell you what this is, but I can tell you what it isn't: It isn't a book on investing, it isn't usable in the real financial world, and George Soros obviously didn't use the information in his book to make money in the markets. I guess it must be a book for some MBA graduate program or something like that because it aint' for investing!

Rating:
Summary: You know he wrote it !
Review: Reading many readers review, and agreeing to one outstanding point is he's no story writer, but two things are absolutely sure, 1.) You recognize his confusing writing style when you buy another of his writings immediately 2.) Dame, the guy is the number 1 speculator on this planet. To correct a reader who wrote a review before, he's not an investor, he's a speculator. His writing is not for the simple minded. For PEOPLE who want a nice bed side reading that blows wind up your rear, stick with the other authors. This guy is dynamite and you know his work is original. NOT AN EASY READ BUT IF YOU ARE SERIOUS ABOUT LEARNING TO READ THE MARKET - THERE ARE NO SHORTCUTS - MUST READ FOR THE DIE-HARD SPECULATOR!

Rating:
Summary: Written by a convicted criminal & inside trader
Review: See Dec. 20th, 2002 on the BBC web site. George Soros was convicted of inside trading in the stock of Societe Generale.

Alchemy is pretty easy when you trade on inside information. Ivan Boesky made millions too by cheating.

Rating:
Summary: Very interesting but a bit wordy
Review: Soros does not reveal his real investment secrets, however you can get a picture of what this great mind and financier is all about.

Rating:
Summary: Fascinating
Review: Soros has written an unintentionally fascinating book. First of all, the book is totally incomprehensible. The most interesting part is a diary of his trading over a couple of years, and the only conclusion I could make after reading that section is that Soros knows its time to sell when his back hurts. The other sections detail his theory of reflexivity. Basically, this theory adds up to the idea that things influence other things. It is either incomprehensible or perfectly trivial, and the fascination of the book consists in watching Soros struggle with the realization that his grand theory-of-everything is trivial. At times he comes close to recognizing that, but not close enough. At the end of the book he confesses that he believes his theory is on the order of Keynes or Einstein's achievements. At that point you just have to shake your head and wonder.

Rating:
Summary: required reading for aspiring money managers
Review: Soros is the greatest publicly known investor of our times. His Quantum Fund numbers attest to that. In this book, he makes a Herculian effort to explain how he did it, including a real-time diary, which is as informative in revealing how often he is wrong-headed (and so exits) as it reveals how he piles on more leverage on a winning position. He also tries to honestly write about how some decisions are simply intuitive, and not the result of reasoned analysis. Though most investors will not be involved in macro-investing, where Soros simultaneously considers equity prices, forex, commodities, politics and economics, and using 5 to 1 leverage invests accordingly in stocks, bonds, currencies, both long and short --- still this is a must-read for anyone considering a carreer as a money manager. If you wanted to be an artist, you would read the biography of da Vinci, a master of art. Soros is a master of finance. The way the Beatles inspired a generation of musicians, so Soros inspired a generation of hedge fund managers.

Rating:
Summary: Some Insights, but also Wordy & Digressive
Review: Soros is unquestionably one of the finest investors of our time, and the concept of "reflexivity" that he introduces in this book does have some merit. However, I found his wordy tome is a slightly burdensome read. Most of his most valuable points are in the first 80 pages; the remaining 300 could have been trimmed down by a wise editor.

Soros' main points revolve around a concept that he dubs "reflexivity." Reflexivity claims a few things: First, that prices aren't objective; they're based on people's biased perceptions of the fundamental factors influencing the market. Second, people make trades based on their biased perceptions, so perceptions will influence the market. Third, and most importantly, those market movements can in turn change the market's underlying fundamentals. There is, therefore, a continuous co-evolution of the market fundamentals, the market's price movements, and market participants' perceptions.

Let's run through an example to make this clear. Say a profitless Internet company's stock soars because investors have overblown expectations of earnings growth. That company could then use its inflated stock in a stock-swap to aquire another company that DOES has earnings. This aquisition would thus "justify" the stock's inflated stock value. Thus, mistaken perceptions have allowed a change in the structure of an industry (i.e. two companies merged which would not have earlier).

Soros makes a number of other valuable points about "reflexivity." He notes that traditional economics try to sidestep the issue of subjectivity and biased perceptions by assuming people behave rationally, which of course isn't always true. To demonstrate this, he points out that we see reflexive behavior all over the markets. For example, we see self-reinforcing price trends (people buy because a stock is going up, or sell when it's going down), rather than random-walks in prices. We see booms & busts in the credit markets. And so on.

Finally, the genesis of the title, "The Alchemy of Finance" comes from Soros' observation that finance can never be a science because the traditional tools of science -- that is, explanation, prediction and objectivity -- can't be used, because perceptions and subjectivity cannot be seperated out like they can in a controlled science experiment. Finance can only be a form of alchemy -- it seeks operational success, instead of being able to seeking and test fundamental laws as the scientific method does.

Overall, I found the book insightful in parts, but rambling. Some other reviewers claimed that the book was pseudo-intellectual. I did find that it lack academic rigor, but I can't be sure if that's because he was writing for a popular audience.

Since the book was written in the late 80's, there's been growing interest & academic research at the intersection between psychology and financial markets. Soros was not the first to recognize that financial markets involve a good dose of psychology, but his book serves to underscore this important truth about the market.

Rating:
Summary: Pseudo-intellectual
Review: While there are several good things in the book like his view of reflexivity (extremely relevant for a world in which stock prices determine fundamentals instead of the other way round) or his trading diary the most important lessons from the book come in the section where he discusses Popper

To those who know little about him Popper in 1934 started a new era in the philosophy of science with a book written in German, and translated in 1959 under the title "The Logic of Scientific Discovery". He rejected the traditional idea that scientific knowledge was based on a method called induction whereby theories are verified by observations. Popper argued that the logical process of induction simply does not exist. Theories are forever tentative and the most useful function (and the only logically decisive effect) of observations is to act as tests or attempted falsifications of theories.

It is application of this theory to stock markets that is of extreme relevance for a trader. "Stock markets are places where different propositions are tested" are the nine most important words ever written about stock markets. Once we can see the mistake that the market is making in coming to general conclusions from specific events then making money is easy as a trader.

I think this philosophy of Knowledge reconciles his poor capability to predict events which is always based on some generalizations with his stock market success as well as his ability to see the flaws in general in a generalization that the market has accepted.

Rating:
Summary: Written by a convicted criminal & inside trader
Review: Yes, the book could be culled down to a few words, but Soro's level of critical thinking is the difference. Both he and us gain valued insight from seeing a financial process germinated, grown, and pruned, where needed. Soro's journey comes across as authentic and without major pretense. I gained useful perspective from a stroll through his absorbing mind and especially liked his concluding notes about how the open society movement gives him added purpose.