Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Leadership for the Common Good)

Rating:
Summary: A New Way of Looking at the Future
Review: Yes, we should have forseen 9/11, and Enron as well. This book rightfully points out that there were warning signs aplenty. But what does this really say of the future.

So I first turned to Chapter 10, Future Predictable Surprises. I have to admit, I was surprised. Their entries in this category: Campaign-Finance Reform; Auditor Independence; Global Depletion of Fish Stocks; Government Subsidies, particularly in agriculture; Global Warming; Ignoring Future Financial Obligations, medicaid, medicare, social security; Frequent Flyer Miles. Yup, those are all predictable disasters.

And if you brainstorm a while you can come up with a bunch of other predictable disasters: AIDS, Oil Running Out, Terriorists hitting a nuclear plant, or bombing the Old River Control Project in Louisiana, which would leave New Orleans and the hundreds of petro-chemical plants downstream high and dry, let along killing 15,000 or so people along the Atchafalaya river.

Then I got to thinking a bit further. It's not the specific disasters that they want to warn us of, that's our job. Their job is to discuss how to look at disasters and what to do to protect our companies or investments (sell petrochemicals). And at this they do a good job.