Rating: Summary: Compelling, but Lacking in Substance and Balance Review: Paul Roberts is a great writer, having authored many successful books about important subjects, such as the timber industry, the auto industry, and the Florida Everglades. Like his other works, "The End of Oil", is eloquently written for the non specialist. In it, he carefully researches and delves into most of the major issues associated with energy - oil and gas supplies, distribution, processing, uses, politics, economics, renewables, etc. Clearly, his goal is to awaken America to the urgency of doing something to avoid what otherwise is likely to be a chaotic economic upheaval as we pass Peak Oil, probably just four years from now. For this purpose the book is outstanding. However, I came at it from the perspective of a physicist who has spent 25 years involved in various sustainable energy issues, and for me the book was quite disappointing. Roberts' in-depth understanding of all the issues about which he writes is limited. As a result, there are a huge number of minor technical errors throughout the book that are at best distracting and at worst seriously misleading. For a much more detailed and accurate discussion of most major aspects of energy, see "Energy at the Crossroads" by Smil, though Smil too has serious limitations on the subject of renewables and advanced technology. Roberts' treatment of oil resources is decidedly inferior to the definitive work on petroleum resources by Campbell, "The Coming Oil Crisis". (And you don't even have to buy Campbell's book. Just go to the ASPO web site and download his last 20 newsletters.) Roberts also does poorly when he tries to evaluate future energy options - wind, biofuels, solar, and hydrogen. Of course, it's hard to be too critical, as there has been a lot of junk science published on these subjects (much of it even coming from government sources) and Roberts is not qualified to separate the wheat from the chaff. The worst chapter by far is Chapter 3, which essentially is an advertisement for Ballard's hydrogen fuel cells. This chapter is full of garbage from start to finish, though it probably contains enough real science to fool the general reader. For a scientifically sound, expert perspective here, see "The Hype About Hydrogen" by Dr. Joe Romm or my "Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles". On this subject, Romm, Smil, and Roberts each have very different views, and here it seems clear that Romm is on the right track. (The recent study by the National Academy of Sciences is on his side, and that should mean something.) Roberts' review of wind and solar in Chapter 13 also leaves a lot to be desired, though most of the information presented on these subjects (except when it comes to hydrogen energy storage to address intermittency) is sound. However, he gives the distinct impression in several places he's already decided to be negative toward wind energy simply because the wind turbines must be produced by big industry to be competitive. He apparently fails to appreciate that the same applies to solar and especially to fuel cells. But the biggest shortcoming in this chapter is his non-treatment of advanced biofuels - such as cellulosic ethanol, algal biodiesel, and methanol and biodiesel from waste and switchgrass. So, I have to commend Roberts for doing a good job (for an outsider and non-expert) of presenting a lot of useful information on energy issues; but for those interested in real substance devoid of slanted hype, I'd recommend turning to the real experts, like Campbell, Romm, and Smil, who also are excellent writers. Of course, you may not want to read three long books, two of which (those by Campbell and Smil) are rather heavy. In that case, you might want to read the first third and the last quarter of "Out of Gas", by Goodstein (the central portion of his book is off topic and boring) to get a brief and scientifically sound introduction to the subject of Peak Oil. For a sound summary of future automotive fuels, I recommend "Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles". - F. David Doty, PhD, engineering physicist.
Rating: Summary: well researched Review: Paul's book is impressive in its comprehensiveness and research, tho reduntant at times and could be tightened. He also gives no mention to the potential for electric automobiles which some believe can be incorporated much sooner than hydrogen. Perhaps in a revised edition, because this is a vital and changing topic that needs frequent updating if it is to be effective. I'm grateful for this book and look to Paul for more.
Mark Lindstrom
Lake Wenatchee, Washington
Rating: Summary: His research here is impeccable Review: Petroleum is an entrenched part of our economy, dictating our politics to our social experiences: so what will happen when oil supplies are depleted? Paul Roberts' The End Of Oil: On The Edge Of A Perilous New World considers the options: especially timely since a 30-year time frame has conservatively been estimated for the depletion of accessible oil resources. Chapters cover not only projected paths if we maintain current usage and dependence levels, but consider alternatives. Paul Roberts is a regular contributor to Harper's Magazine and his research here is impeccable.
Rating: Summary: Right Down the Middle Review: Roberts in neither a liberal nor a conservative. He presents the facts and the range of thoughts that accompany the facts. This is a very well written book that explores energy and the world economy. Read this book.
Rating: Summary: The best book on the topic Review: The End of Oil is a badly-needed addition to the body of energy literature. Roberts provides comprehensive, well-thought-out, and non-ideological insight into the problems we face as we near the end of the age of cheap oil. His work covers the geological, economic, and political debates, and gives us a glimpse into a future both troubling and full of hope. This work is not flawless, despite my praise and five-star rating. Roberts repeatedly implies that getting synthetic crude from the Alberta oil sands is a prospect for the future; in reality, current production is over 500,000 barrels/day and rising. He also seems surprised that water injection is now being used to aid production from Saudi Arabia's giant Ghawar oilfield, and takes that as a sign that Ghawar is aging badly. However, according to the Saudi national oil company, water injection had been used at Ghawar since 1965. Notwithstanding these nitpicks, this is the best and most balanced book on the the topic. It should be read by anyone interested in the future of energy, our economy, and the world.
Rating: Summary: Balanced, comprehensive, well researched, well written Review: This book presents Paul Roberts' extensive research in a cohesive story of energy, starting with our first foray into using carbon-based sources for our energy, hitting on why energy is so important, and going on through our discovery of how to use coal, oil, and natural gas. He then cites several different sources to describe the current mess we're in -- namely, the imminent (though not immediate) depletion of carbon-based fuels and, at least as alarming and probably more immediate, the result of our centuries of releasing so much stored carbon into the atmosphere, namely global warming.
Although Mr. Roberts clearly has an opinion on the topic (that we must do something about all this, and fast), he arrives at this opinion after careful consideration of information from all sides of the debate. He also offers a combination of actions, all within the realm of possibility, that could lead to a solution.
I like that the arguments arrived at by the last chapter were so well supported by interviews of countless experts. I appreciated that Mr. Roberts' tone, while urgent, was not shrill. And I especially liked that he offered a set of solutions that were actionable and were based on the realities of economic systems and the needs of the developing world.
But we must get on these solutions right away! So please read this book, write your legislators (because apparently they take our silence on the matter for apathy), and do what you can to help out (quite easy, as one of the three parts of the solution is conservation, which doesn't have to be painful)!
Rating: Summary: Great book, a couple of annoyances Review: This otherwise excellent book is marred only by the common problem with books written by journalists, it is written as series of articles, not a coherent book. This means that the same facts, ideas and framework is repeated over and over and over again. For the most part this is OK, as each section introduces new facts and historical background, but by the end of the book it is extremely irritating, not to mention condescending to be bludgeoned for the 23rd time with the same information.
Another annoyance is the author's lack of research into some of the existing research and technologies on alternative sources of fuel/energy. While it's true that some of the technologies are still in development or yet to be developed, some of the author's pessimism might have been reduced with a little understanding of the technologies we already have today.
Having said that, the book is a very comprehensive look at the role that energy has played in the development of civilisation from early times to the present, and a thorough overview of the energy environment today.
Plenty of facts, history and players make this an entertaining and informative read. If you want to know where the world is headed, this book would be a great place to start your research.
Rating: Summary: It's not too late to save the global economy -- or is it? Review: Whew! This book was a tremendous eye-opener. Before I read "The End of Oil," I believed the greatest threat to our planet's future stability was global warming. After turning the last page and closing the book, it is crystal clear to me now that the coming painful transition away from oil-based energy might make global warming seem harmless by comparison.
It is truly frightening to think about the implications of a real global energy crisis, and how close we are to that scenario on any given day. All it takes is a collapse of Saudi Arabia, and the world is in serious trouble... if we want to maintain our high standard of living. And even if we somehow make it through the next few decades without energy crises, the book reminds you that we are still going to run out of oil, and sooner than we think.
In short, this book is a chilling wake-up call that we must start moving beyond oil... today! We no longer have a choice about it (as if we ever really did). We must start investing seriously in alternative energies. We must go back to promoting oil conservation and dump the SUVs. We must change our ways now the somewhat-easy way, or we will do it later, the much harder way.
The book fully outlines all the efforts underway today -- from alternative energies to hydrogen power -- and outlines several optimistic scenarios (perhaps a bit of wishful thinking) for how we can move into the future proactively and with minimal disruption to global economies. But, it won't happen until we have a real crisis or real environmental leadership in Washington.
Rating: Summary: Jounalist vs Economist Review: While the professional reviewers have given Robert's book only the highest of praise, (The New York Review of Books calls it "the best single book ever produced about our energy economy and its environmental implications") several reader-reviewers have faulted Roberts for not being an economist. As someone who had to endure a good deal of economics while earning my MBA, I can assure you, these unnamed, un-credentialed "reviewers" aren't economists either. They all seem to have the same complaint: that Roberts doesn't understand economics because he doesn't believe the law of supply and demand will deliver us smoothly from our energy dilemma. Well, no one else who's taken more than freshman Economics 101 thinks supply/demand functions in that simplistic way either. Sure, the supply/demand dynamic is at work, but markets left to their own devices are quite capable of dragging us through shortages, depressions, environmental disasters, and even wars on their way to new equilibrium. Roberts doesn't fail to understand supply and demand. On the contrary, he sees it quite clearly, with all its real world complexity and danger, and helps the lay reader to see it as well. I have to wonder if these "reviewers" even finished the book. The End Of Oil is written not by an economist (thank heavens!) but by a respected journalist who spent years interviewing economists and a myriad other energy experts and players. Roberts has done what few economists could have; written an accessible, readable, but comprehensive book that could get the American public thinking constructively about our energy strategy (or lack thereof). In this country, we like to think the real power lies with the people, and I believe it does, but only when we can be bothered to exercise it. We must first recognize and understand an issue before we've any chance of voting wisely, whether with ballots or our wallets. Reading this book is an enjoyable, interesting first step.
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