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Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game

Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game

List Price: $19.95
Your Price: $13.57
Product Info Reviews

<< 1 >>

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Disappointing
Review:

This is a book that I was excited to buy but unfortunately I did not enjoy it as much as I had hoped for. The two main reasons for this are 1) the lack of major insights and 2) the huge quantity of typos (I stopped counting after around 20). The copy editor for this did an absolutely terrible job, I'm afraid to report (writing this guarantees a typo somewhere in my review :) ). Some of the players' names are spelled incorrectly, and some of the numbers in the charts are inconsistent. This is very distracting.

The book is divided into 12 chapters, starting with a fairly trivial look at tabletop baseball games. The authors devote much attention to evaluating offensive performance, comparing various measures such as batting average, SLG, OBP, linear weights, total average, runs created and a few other more obscure ones. There is also some discussion of clutch hitting and a look at "Did the best team win the World Series?"

One of the other problems I found was that the authors stop short of providing actual statistical formulas and get into hand-waving a few times. I see that they have all the academic credentials but it seems as though they took the "book sales are inversely proportional to number of equations in the text" relationship to heart. I felt the book suffered because of that.

I'm not sure who I could recommend this book to. I have a feeling that some of the concepts might be too advanced for kids, and not deep enough for those who have a decent understanding of statistics. If you are into baseball stats but you don't know much about real statistics you will definitely find some new concepts in here, so I guess that is the audience.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Good, but could have been better
Review: As a statistician and baseball fan, I had high expectations for this book. Generally, those expectations were met, although I came away from this book feeling like an opportunity had been lost. The biggest problem with the book is that the authors can't seem to decide how much knowledge to assume of their readers. The first 100 pages or so are presented at a sub-high school level, while the last few chapters assume the reader to have taken higher-level college courses in statistics. Also, I do not expect any book to be written and edited perfectly, but the typos actually become an occassional distraction from the text.

On the whole, though, I would still recommend this book--it is by far the best contemporary statistical breakdown of the game of baseball. It is an especially good complement to Michael Lewis's "Moneyball," which is a more anecdotal presentation of similar material. If you enjoy baseball at all, and have even a passing interest in batting averages, ERAs, and HRs, you will be entertained by this book and will probably learn a lot, too.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A "must read" for all baseball fans and enthusiasts
Review: Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics And The Role Of Chance In The Game provides the non-specialist, general reader with a sophisticated by accessible approach to statistics that can greatly enhanced their understanding and appreciation of baseball numbers and the game itself. With their unique and original approach to the subject, Jim Albert and Jay Bennett have successfully collaborated to present a coherent and informative introduction and survey of the many statistics that are a part of the baseball experience. Curve Ball is a "must read" for all baseball fans and enthusiasts.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Good, but could be better
Review: I'm not sure who the target audience for this book is. At the beginning the introduce the most basic of statistics concepts as well as the most basic of baseball concepts. And at the end they seem to assume lots of knowledge of statistics. As both a baseball fan and a mathematician, I felt the beginning of the book very slow, but I also worry that someone who isn't knowledgable in both already might have trouble following some of it.

That said, the book was very well written, and posed some interesting ideas and questions. I wish it had been longer, as the last few chapters were really getting me into sabermetrics!

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Good, but could be better
Review: I'm not sure who the target audience for this book is. At the beginning the introduce the most basic of statistics concepts as well as the most basic of baseball concepts. And at the end they seem to assume lots of knowledge of statistics. As both a baseball fan and a mathematician, I felt the beginning of the book very slow, but I also worry that someone who isn't knowledgable in both already might have trouble following some of it.

That said, the book was very well written, and posed some interesting ideas and questions. I wish it had been longer, as the last few chapters were really getting me into sabermetrics!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: baseball statistics as studied by professional statisticians
Review: Jim Albert and Jay Bennett share two traits that make them the perfect authors for this type of book (1) they are both baseball fans who know the game and have seen many games and much statistics from many angles and (2) they are both professional statisticians who understand probability and the subtle aspects that chance can have on statistics. By being professional statisticians they also know how sophisticated statistical techniques can add to ones ability to seriously address questions of strategy and comparison of player performance. That is what they accomplish in this book, teaching some basic probability and statistics along the way.

They also make it very interesting to the baseball fan by raising interesting baseball questions related to players that the fans relate to, namely the stars that the fans follow and the great clutch hits and clutch defensive plays that we baseball fans have imprinted in our memories, like Mazeroski's game winning home run in the 1960 World Series, or Willie Mays' famous over the shoulder catch of Vic Wertz's long fly ball in the 1954 series, or Bobby Thompson home run that won the 1951 playoffs for the Giants.

In the very beginning Albert and Bennett distinguish themselves from the sports statisticians that are hired by the teams. The sports statisticians collect the data and present it in various ways. However, this is merely exploratory data analysis. Albert and Bennett point out that a numerical difference in a hitting statistic such as on base percentage between Chuck Knoblauch and Kenny Lofton may be a real difference in ability but may also be a small enough difference to be merely due to chance. Finding ways to analyze the baseball data to make probabilistic inferences like answering the question of whether Lofton is better at getting on base than Knoblauch is the focus of what professional statisticians do and is the theme of the book.

In the course of reading the book you will learn many things about baseball. Some may agree with previous notions and some will be surprises. You will learn about the massive amount of major league baseball data available, about SABR a society for baseball research and more. You will be opened up to the hinden world of professional statistics where probability models have been used for over a century to handle military, engineering, energy, environmental, agricultural and medical problems. These same tools in recent years have been used to handle baseball questions also.

They start with simple table top baseball games like All Star Baseball to introduce concepts. They then move on to baseball data and probability. Then they look at statistical questions, situational effects in Chapter 4, hot hitting in Chapter 5, methods of measuring offensive performance in Chapter 6, more sophisticated measures in Chapter 7, simulation models in Chapter 8, measures of clutch play and team value in Chapter 9, ways to predict performance in Chapter 10, analyzing World Series results in Chapter 11 and final comments in Chapter 12.

This is a great book for any one who loves baseball and baseball statistics. It also is a great way to learn and become interested in the techniques of the professional statistician.

For statisticians that teach statistics, it provides a wealth of interesting examples to help illustrate important statistical concepts in basic or even advanced courses, including the value of Bayesian methods, the need for overdispersion models (e.g. batting averages) and the value of linear and nonlinear prediction models.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Insightful look at the game
Review: More than any other sport, baseball is a game of statistics. This book goes behind the numbers and looks at where the true patterns are and where the seeming patterns are just the result of chance.

As an example, the book discusses how, in general, hitting is not affected by night play or day play; on the other hand, there is an effect for facing a right-hander versus a southpaw, based on the side of the plate you are on.

Generally well-written, this book only sometimes gets bogged down in statistical calculations and is generally accessible to the nonmathematician. The main flaw in the book is its emphasis on hitting and the relative lack of writing on pitching. While there is plenty of discussion on the value of batting average, slugging percentage or on-base percentage in determining runs scored, there is no similar discussion on ERA or strikeouts and its impact on wins.

The other problem I find with the book is it removes some of the mystique of the game. It's sometimes more fun not to overanalyze things; it's kind of like watching a magic show; if you understand what's happening, you feel smarter but some of the pleasure has gone away. Which is not to say that I'm not going to continue enjoying baseball, but I will look at the game with more scrutiny when it comes to all the statistics that are cited.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Insightful look at the game
Review: More than any other sport, baseball is a game of statistics. This book goes behind the numbers and looks at where the true patterns are and where the seeming patterns are just the result of chance.

As an example, the book discusses how, in general, hitting is not affected by night play or day play; on the other hand, there is an effect for facing a right-hander versus a southpaw, based on the side of the plate you are on.

Generally well-written, this book only sometimes gets bogged down in statistical calculations and is generally accessible to the nonmathematician. The main flaw in the book is its emphasis on hitting and the relative lack of writing on pitching. While there is plenty of discussion on the value of batting average, slugging percentage or on-base percentage in determining runs scored, there is no similar discussion on ERA or strikeouts and its impact on wins.

The other problem I find with the book is it removes some of the mystique of the game. It's sometimes more fun not to overanalyze things; it's kind of like watching a magic show; if you understand what's happening, you feel smarter but some of the pleasure has gone away. Which is not to say that I'm not going to continue enjoying baseball, but I will look at the game with more scrutiny when it comes to all the statistics that are cited.


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