Rating: 
Summary: should I buy energy mutual funds now ?
Review: Very interesting book. The bottom line is that oil exploration has peaked on the planet earth. Thats the way the curves look. The future will be what it is. The question is , when will we realize diminishing returns in our search for oil? The author needs to demonstrate his point with a more solid statistical search for oil on the face of the earth before we start buying oil futures. He alluded to such an analysis of oil exploration in one of his chapters describing american (continental) oil drilling and the observed limits to such a search. Until such information is displayed ,the skeptical (greed driven) financial markets will have to have their way. Feel lucky ? Roll the strategic dice on the mutual fund 'Vanguard Energy'.
Want to hit the jackpot ? Try the commodities market. The question is 'In whose generation will the transition to natural gas and the other forms of energy occure ?'
Borrowing from Hubberts success might, but probably won't, solve the problem.
Rating:
Summary: Highly Recommended!
Review: When a wise old codger of rural roots warns you in humble fashion, "Pardon me, sir, but I dare say you're headed down the wrong road!" something tingling there on the back of your neck warns that you'd better listen. Even more so when the old-timer has risen beyond his oil-patch roots to become a Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. Kenneth S. Deffeyes doesn't have to impress anybody, and perhaps that's one reason he has written a book on oil that will never give you that scratchy sensation of wool being drawn over your eyes. Deffeyes returns to his Oklahoma City roots to point out, as any fellow atop a tractor or toting a pipe wrench might, that things just can't keep going up and up forever. The difference: Deffeyes has a lifetime of industry and academic experience behind him. So, how real is the coming energy shortage? Well, put it this way: we from getAbstract highly recommend this book only to those individuals and companies who rely on electricity or the internal combustion engine. Stone age denizens need not sign up.
Rating: 
Summary: Yikes - Somebody get Mr. Deffeyes a Ghost Writer!
Review: While I tend to agree with some of what Mr. Deffeyes concludes, I have to say he did a woeful job of presenting a case for his conclusions. Other authors have done much better making a case for the obvious end of rising oil production. Deffeyes' writing style is atrocious. He constantly digresses and hopelessly abandons the reader in a morass of minutiae and gaps in written explanations. Most of the book does not even directly address his title. Too much of the book is a disjointed "explanation" of oil industry geology ... "stream of consciousness" petroleum geology/statistics if you will. It is as if he dictated the book, and didn't bother to have it proof read to see if anyone could follow his ramblings. I would have given the book one star except for the fact that there are some usefull and understandable explanations in the book. If you are a fanatic on this subject, it may be worthwhile trying to read it. Otherwise, there are many other more persuasive, well written books on the subject.
Rating:
Summary: Only one more oil crisis, but it'll be a doozy
Review: While millions of environmentally concerned Americans are ready to vilify on reflex what Molly Ivins flippantly dubs "the oil bidness," Kenneth Deffeyes thinks of the petroleum fields as a place of high spirits and high romance. But, having spent half his life working for Shell, and half of it training later generations of fossil fuel hunters, he is here to break the bad news to us gently. And the news is, the party's over. The days of derring-do among the derricks are just about done. Thirty years ago, U.S. oil production peaked, and has been declining ever since. Shortly, world oil production will hit the same peak, and begin to decline. That doesn't mean there will be no oil left; thirty years after hitting its own peak, the U.S. is still the second largest oil producer in the world. But it does mean that demand will outstrip supply, and that means the economic dislocations of the late 70s - the spiking prices, the long gas lines, the deep recession - will become permanent. Eventually, other sources of energy, both renewables and plentiful fossil fuels like natural gas, will fill in the breach. But it will be a long and painful process, requiring a ton of capital investments in research and in infrastructure that a suddenly poorer first world will be ill able to afford. "Shortly", Deffeyes argues, means in one to six years, and probably in the early part of that range. One can quibble with some of his arguments for that timing. With luck, he acknowledges, there may be one significant set of oil fields yet to be discovered, in the South China Sea (unexplored so far because the competing jurisdictions of the several nearby island nations have made contracts hard to nail down.) And I don't think he's given sufficient weight to the fact that all the oil recovery in the Middle East is still "primary", using old-fashioned pumping technology. But if all the quibbles are granted, it only affords the world economy another five or ten years of grace. So, if Deffeyes is wrong, the time to start making those massive investments and changes is today. If he is right, the time to start making them is ten years ago, and all we can accomplish by swift action is to make the period of intense pain a decade or two shorter. Though Professor Deffeyes isn't political enough or impolite enough to say so, Clinton (for all his green talk) failed to provide any leadership to reduce our dependence on petroleum. And his successor, of course, is providing energetic leadership, but all of it is geared to marching us all double-time into still more rapid consumption of what little oil is left. History will remember neither President Slick, nor President Oil Slick, any more kindly than it now remembers Herbert Hoover for fiddling while the fuse that would set off the Great Depression burned. The book is an easy read, short and set in a conversational style that permits the reader to glide through the more technical portions if so inclined. The technical details and the mathematical arguments could be tighter, and the folksiness, which would be delightful in a lecture room, is occasionally a bit much on the written page. For those reasons, it would be easy to give the book only four stars. But those faults are inseparable from the book's virtues. They're compromises Deffeyes chose to make in order to be accessible to a wide audience, and his book deserves to reach one. If environmentalists take Deffeyes' message seriously,they'll realize that we will soon be so starved for oil that ANWAR is certain to be plundered, and that nuclear plants are certain to sprout across the landscape like, well, like mushrooms. If Deffeyes is on or near target, nothing can prevent those developments. Greens today should be using ANWAR and an expanded nuclear industry as bargaining chips, to be traded for strict CAFE standards, investment in renewable technologies, non-industry oversight of nuclear safety, and (since the near term alternative will be coal) investment in natural gas pipeline infrastructure.
Rating:
Summary: Only one more oil crisis, but it'll be a doozy
Review: While millions of environmentally concerned Americans are ready to vilify on reflex what Molly Ivins flippantly dubs "the oil bidness," Kenneth Deffeyes thinks of the petroleum fields as a place of high spirits and high romance. But, having spent half his life working for Shell, and half of it training later generations of fossil fuel hunters, he is here to break the bad news to us gently. And the news is, the party's over. The days of derring-do among the derricks are just about done. Thirty years ago, U.S. oil production peaked, and has been declining ever since. Shortly, world oil production will hit the same peak, and begin to decline. That doesn't mean there will be no oil left; thirty years after hitting its own peak, the U.S. is still the second largest oil producer in the world. But it does mean that demand will outstrip supply, and that means the economic dislocations of the late 70s - the spiking prices, the long gas lines, the deep recession - will become permanent. Eventually, other sources of energy, both renewables and plentiful fossil fuels like natural gas, will fill in the breach. But it will be a long and painful process, requiring a ton of capital investments in research and in infrastructure that a suddenly poorer first world will be ill able to afford. "Shortly", Deffeyes argues, means in one to six years, and probably in the early part of that range. One can quibble with some of his arguments for that timing. With luck, he acknowledges, there may be one significant set of oil fields yet to be discovered, in the South China Sea (unexplored so far because the competing jurisdictions of the several nearby island nations have made contracts hard to nail down.) And I don't think he's given sufficient weight to the fact that all the oil recovery in the Middle East is still "primary", using old-fashioned pumping technology. But if all the quibbles are granted, it only affords the world economy another five or ten years of grace. So, if Deffeyes is wrong, the time to start making those massive investments and changes is today. If he is right, the time to start making them is ten years ago, and all we can accomplish by swift action is to make the period of intense pain a decade or two shorter. Though Professor Deffeyes isn't political enough or impolite enough to say so, Clinton (for all his green talk) failed to provide any leadership to reduce our dependence on petroleum. And his successor, of course, is providing energetic leadership, but all of it is geared to marching us all double-time into still more rapid consumption of what little oil is left. History will remember neither President Slick, nor President Oil Slick, any more kindly than it now remembers Herbert Hoover for fiddling while the fuse that would set off the Great Depression burned. The book is an easy read, short and set in a conversational style that permits the reader to glide through the more technical portions if so inclined. The technical details and the mathematical arguments could be tighter, and the folksiness, which would be delightful in a lecture room, is occasionally a bit much on the written page. For those reasons, it would be easy to give the book only four stars. But those faults are inseparable from the book's virtues. They're compromises Deffeyes chose to make in order to be accessible to a wide audience, and his book deserves to reach one. If environmentalists take Deffeyes' message seriously,they'll realize that we will soon be so starved for oil that ANWAR is certain to be plundered, and that nuclear plants are certain to sprout across the landscape like, well, like mushrooms. If Deffeyes is on or near target, nothing can prevent those developments. Greens today should be using ANWAR and an expanded nuclear industry as bargaining chips, to be traded for strict CAFE standards, investment in renewable technologies, non-industry oversight of nuclear safety, and (since the near term alternative will be coal) investment in natural gas pipeline infrastructure.
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