Rating: 
Summary: Interesting, but little more
Review: Hubbert's Peak by Deffeyes is an interesting book on petroleum geology and exploration. Unfortunately, the title of the book was on the impending oil shortage. After several chapters on petroleum geology Deffeyes finally discussing the supposed main topic of the book almost as an afterthought. There were numerous factual errors in the book that diminish the author's credibility. For example, hydrocarbon generation can only be explained by decomposition energies in the range of 14kcal/mole. This is nonsensical and reflects literature references from the 1970's that were shortly thereafter proven incorrect. In addition citing an activation energy without the corresponding Arrhenius constant makes the value entirely nonsensical. Please remember that it is a rate equation. Also Shell has a lot of produced hydrocarbons from source rocks with less than 8% TOC, which Deffeyes cites as their supposed minimum organic richness; I imagine the ExxonMobil crowd enjoyed the inaccuracy of these statements since Deffeyes since many of his "facts" were laughable. If this book had been reviewed for publication in a scientific journal, most of the "facts" cited would have not gotten by reviewers and as a paper would have been subjected to a complete rewrite. This book should have been reviewed by someone with technical competence prior to publication. Retitle the book, please, to reflect the actual content. I gave the book to a lay person so they could understand a bit about the oil business (told them to ignore my written comments by many of the "facts").
Rating: 
Summary: Fantastic
Review: I have read many books on this topic, and along with Colin Campbell's book found this one to be one of the best.The author's statistical analysis was a bit complex at times, but nonetheless I was able to understand the basic rationale for his conclusions. I also enjoyed the stories from his years working in the oil fields. Since there is no possibility of being one of his students at Princeton, I found this to be a great substitute. Most enlightening. In a post Enron world, it was refreshing to read the author's views presented in a take it or leave it manner. This was clearly not the work of an "analyst" with an agenda. I loved it.
Rating: 
Summary: Not much explanation of oil depletion
Review: I was rather disappointed with this book. I have been reading a lot about oil depletion lately, and so I was excited when this book came out. The good things about the book: 1- it IS easy reading. 2- it gives a pretty good explanation of where oil comes from, and why it is only found in certain geoloical formations. I found this part (more than 1/2 the book) pretty interesting. 3- It has some cool stories about the oil business that illustrate the technical and personal aspects of getting oil out of the ground. Its also got some great graphs. The things I was disappointed with: 1- Nowhere does the author address the issue of oil reserve numbers, or WHY we will not find new oil fields. Campbell discusses this issue in his book. 2- By far the biggest problem with the book is that his argument for an oil production peak is entirely based on curve-fitting! I must say that this is an extremely weak reasoning (in the absence of supporting arguments) for saying that oil production will soon peak. The author does not give an adequate basis for why mathematical curves have such a great prdictive value here. The author should have analyzed production data for the worlds main fields, and then compiled the data. I was definitely unimpressed with the elaborate curve-fitting Deffeyes used. 3- Explanations in the book were often not commensurate with the complexity of what was discussed. Several pages would be spent explaining something simple, and then a paragraph would be spent explaining something complex.
Rating:
Summary: This Author is Right On
Review: I was reading some of the other reviews in here. I believe that the reason Hubbert's peak was not more bell-shaped for the u.s. production stats was because he only was forcasting for the lower 48 states. If it wasn't for the Alaskan oil the distribution would be much more like would Hubbert originally predicted. I read alot of business and financial material and it sounds to me like Dr. Deffeyes is unfortunately on to something. If anything he is too optimistic. Political events in Nigeria, Venezuela, and Iraq have done long-term damage to their oil fields since they need to constantly pump to maintain their capacity. The exploding population in the OPEC countries combined with massive desalinization projects means that more oil and gas will be needed for their own populations and less will be available for export. China's oil imports have doubled since the mid-90's, India's economy is starting to really take off, and the list goes on. Even if you don't subscribe to this pessimistic view the book makes good reading since almost half is dedicated to the science of the oil business itself. This is one of the few doom and gloom type books that may prove correct.
Rating: 
Summary: timely and informative
Review: In Hubbert's Peak, Kenneth Deffeyes contends that sometime in the very near future, in fact within the next 10 years, world oil production will peak and then steadily decline. In the author's opinion, no amount of exploration or technological advance will change the fact that world oil supplies will rapidly diminish. Thus, a fossil fuel created over millions of years will have been exhausted in little more than century after it was first put to use. The economic and geopolitical consequences of this prediction, if realized, are exceedingly obvious but largely unappreciated by the American public. Deffeyes' analysis would appear to be solidly based: his calculations are derived from the work of geologist H. King Hubbert, who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. King was accurate enough, as the actual peak occur?red in 1970.
Beyond this serious and timely message, the author gives an informative breakdown of the petroleum industry? how oil is formed, discovered, and recovered. In the process, he manages to introduce a number of basic scientific concepts that are handy to all. While the text is kept simple, Deffeyes respects the reader's judgment by including various graphs and plots of raw data, and a notes section supplies equations for anyone wishing to take issue with the mathematics of his argument.
The book is written in a conversational tone, which makes for easy going and gives one the relaxed feeling of sitting in on an informal classroom lecture. Deffeyes has a sense of humor that usually serves to lubricate the reading process, although at times his sideshow commentary tends to distract from an otherwise important message. Another complaint concerns the relatively scant treatment of alternative energy sources: after thoroughly arguing that crisis is imminent, he offered little insight in the way of actually solving the problem.
Criticisms aside, this book is a valuable read. Given recent world events associated with the Middle East, the present economic climate, and the current absence of an acceptable energy replacement, it is high time Americans give the oil issue their undivided attention. Hubbert's Peak provides a worthy starting point.
Rating:
Summary: Staggeringly worthless book.
Review: In one word ... "Malthus" Environmentalists and socialists are endlessly incorrect, just another minor book in that vein. Hubbert was incredibly incorrect in predecting the "oil would run out!" Next year is Deffeyes "year the oil will run out." The production of oil simply obey's Moore's law of technology. In fact, about every ten years, the reserves of oil DOUBLE ... every year there is MORE oil available, not less. (Just as, say, the power of computer chips doubles every couple of years.) A completely valueless book, useful only for footnote histiography. For instance in 50 years someone may write "and there were innumerable other minor Malthus, like say Hubbert or Deffeyes..." If you enjoy facts, read and enjoy Julian Lincoln Simon's _It's Getting Better All The Time_ If you're an environmentalist or socialist, RUSH to buy this Deffeyes book, ie, run as fast as posisble from facts. As an incidental observation the oil science in the book is, as you expect from enviros/socialists, utterly and hopelessly out of date. To make but one example it's now trivial to turn "white oil" or "sand oil" into usable oil. In short - utterly worthless. Since he _wrote_ the book, the world reserves of oil have _quadrupled_ and oil technology has completely outpaced the book. Hubbert ('1970') was utterly wrong. Deffeys says "oh, he weas just out by 30 years, really its 2003!" Deffeys is utterly wrong, some other environmentalist will come along and say "oh, he weas just out by 30 years, really its 2045!" Et cetera.
Rating:
Summary: A timely and intelligent book
Review: In this informative and sometimes witty book, Deffeyes makes a credible case that world oil production will peak sometime in the near future. He's not saying that we are going to "run out of oil", but that this resource will become increasingly difficult to find and extract. The oil geology of our planet is generally well known; it is unlikely that we will find another major pool of cheap oil; and even if there is another such large find, it will only delay the peak by a few years.
Deffeyes' analysis is based on a methodology developed by King Hubbert that accurately predicted the year of peak oil production in the United States. The historical data confirming the accuracy of that prediction can be found on the Web site of the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
This book is highly recommended, and its relevance increases with every passing month.
Rating:
Summary: A must read for any serious energy analyst
Review: Ken Deffeyes, a colleague of M. King Hubbert, has written a critical book which tells the reader that global oil production will peak in the next decade. Hubbert, a geophysicist employed at Shell, first predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak around 1970. This has come to pass. Using the same basic analytical methods for global oil production, Deffeyes makes a strong case as to why global oil production will peak in 2004-2009 timeframe. Certain variables can delay the peak in oil production but the peak is inevitable. All of this is neatly laid out in Chapter 1 and presented in detail in Chapter 7 & 8. The remainder of the book is a background in oil exploration and production and some discussion about alternative sources of energy. Far from being an environmentalist or policy wonk, Deffeyes, as an oil professional and academic, has clearly outlined the implications of Hubbert's peak for our hydrocarbon-based society. Unfortunately, the short-sighted politicians and policymakers in Wasghington will not want to seriously debate this issue. Instead policies to support America's insatiable hunger for SUV's (and other waste) will continue until an energy supply crisis hits home.
Rating:
Summary: Engaging but technically thin
Review: Kenneth Deffeyes deserves great credit for writing a readable book about petroleum geology. It can only be good if his lively style draws more people to understand the source of our gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. He does everyone a great service with his colorful explanation of topics such as anticlines, discovery depth, and petroleum source rock.
In contrast to often-humorless polemics about oil reserves, groups such as oil company PR departments and the Greens could better spread their messages by applying his folksy approach. However, this strength of Deffeyes' book leads to its weakness.
When discussing total world oil reserves, trying to finesse the lack of data about, for example, the size of Iraqi or Russian oil deposits is not acceptable. Deffeyes' current-day counterparts in the oil industry or USGS would describe a range of remaining reserves using a Monte Carlo or other probability-weighted approach. Point estimates lead to notorious debacles. Think Enron and mark-to-market accounting.
I also agree with reviewer Ryan that the Deffeyes' use of a symmetrical production curve is misleading. My several years of work in oil and gas demonstrated that production curves are fat-tailed: more than half the production comes after the peak due to secondary or tertiary recovery. Initial reserve estimates are almost always revised in only one direction-up.
Finally, the book suffers a lack of economic perspective, as evidenced by the alarmist subtitle and the apocalyptic last few pages. Deffeyes does well when he points out oil took millions of years to form, we've used a lot in the last hundred years, and let's think about what comes next. And certainly problems occur when we don't get clear price signals such as during 1970s oil price controls or now with the indirect, high cost of military patrol in the Middle East.
But Deffeyes doesn't distinguish adequately between the short term and the long term. Sure, a perceived shortage caused by war, for example, gives us $50/barrel oil for an hour or a day. But markets, and people's behavior, change immediately to compensate. We're not doomed just because we don't already have enough solar infrastructure. Solar's been "almost there" for over twenty years. It will be "there" when it's the economical alternative.
Rating:
Summary: Top Level Analysis by an Oil Man and High Level Academic
Review: Kenneth Deffeyes has an engaging entertaining syle and is a gifted teacher. A professor emeritus of geology at Princeton, he was born to an oil family in Oklahoma and worked at Shell during the glory days of M. King Hubbert. This is an oil man, and a top level academic thinker. I earnestly recommend that you read this book if you are interested in energy issues. If you complete the book and understand the details (no small task in some of the chapters), you will have a high level of understanding of the salient details of oil and natural gas exploration, recovery and refining. You will know why major deep ocean oil deposits are extremely unlikely. You will know what a source rock is, and how it must be positioned at the appropriate depth range in the earth to make oil; drilling deeper is not going to help us. In short, you will feel like you have completed a postgraduate course in petroleum geology. For $12 for the paperback version, it's quite a deal. The book deals in hard facts; it has no discernable ideological bent. But is does makes a compelling case that global oil production will peak sometime between 2003 and 2009, and that society will be in for a resulting shock. If you are a doubter, take my challenge and read this book.
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