Rating: 
Summary: The end of our Civilization - I think
Review: After reading this and studying information about the Olduvai theory on the net I am truly shocked. If I'm not totally naive and gullible and what I've learned is correct then the scenario is this: Oil is the source, the lifeblood, of our Industrial Civilization. Oil production has now peaked everywhere but in the Middle East and it will peak there too sometime between 2006-2008. As a result of this decreasing production of oil along with an ever increasing demand for oil, the Worlds economies have already started to go into recession. This will continue and intensify over the next decade and will probably lead to a 'great depression' similar to that in the 30's that has already started and will last until about 2012, getting increasingly worse with each year. At the same time the powers of the world (USA) will start moving to secure the remaining oil deposits for itself, and that the 'war on terror' is really a front, a smokescreen, for that ulterior motive. If anybody has got any oil they want they can just say they are terrorists and then go to war with them, kill them, and secure their oil. From 2012 onwards the future is bleak indeed. As the worlds oil supplies start running out power blackouts will start occurring throughout the world on an increasingly frequent basis until one by one the lights will go out and they will not come back on. From 2012 - 2030 modern Industrial Civilization will collapse back into an earlier more 'primitive' form. There are no alternative power sources that will provide anything like the level of power required to support a population of 6 billion. The population will have to be culled, either through mass starvation as modern agriculture ceases to function, through plague, or through mass murder, until its back to about 2 billion or less. Even then the survivors will lead medieval lives. living by candlelight, and moving either by walking or by horse-drawn cart or steam power. No cars, planes, trains, ships, computers, internet, mobile phones. Little or no technology at all. The few elite at the top who have hoarded the remaining oil and wealth and guard it jealously will still be able to enjoy a reasonable standard of life but for the rest of humanity the clock will have been put back centuries. This I believe is supposedly the scenario. Sounds too wild to be true but if you scour the internet on this subject you will find many very reputable and scholarly studies that confirm this future scenario....
What I wanna know is: if this is true why haven't the government prepared for this in advance?? Or is this just all garbage and I'm incredibly stupid? If it is true then it is humanity that is stupid and this is the best kept secret in History. It can't be true - can it?
Rating: 
Summary: Right on the mark.
Review: An absolutely outstanding book. It looks like oil production may have peaked right before this book is published. "Oil and gas journal" showed the production in 2000 was 67,003,000 barrels a day and in 2001 was 66,599,000 and in 2002 was 65,946,000. Unless this is a temporary drop the oil production peak WAS reached in 2000. Another event that is happening that few people had predicted is the hunger for oil in China. China is the second largest oil-consuming nation and oil use there is increasing at an annual rate of over 10%. Hopes for large oil finds in China didn't pan out and China is rapidly increasing it's oil imports. So far this year China is importing 30% more oil than same time last year.
Rating:
Summary: Excellent introduction to the Oil Business.
Review: As a scientist (physics/eletrical engineering) with essentially zero knowledge of petroleum or geology I found the book very informative and readable.Other reviewers criticise Deffeyes for not providing all the answers for how this is gonna play out, but I didn't mind that part. I accept that he neither has all the answers or a crystal ball. What he does have, is a lifetime of experience in the oil business and a lot of knowledge about how oil is formed in nature, trapped in rocks, discovered, recovered, and refined. I thought he did a very good job of sharing that knowledge, and convincing me that there is a real problem coming -- probably within the next 10 years -- and that we'd better start paying attention. The book provides a good foundation so the intelligent lay reader can participate in the inevitable public policy debates, and formulate their own opinions about how we can best soften the blow, when gas hits $5 or $10 a gallon. For what it's worth, I really liked his writing style. Short clear sentances about complicated ideas, with just enough annecdotes to keep the book enjoyable. It reads like a fascinating dinner conversation, rather than an accademic lecture.
Rating:
Summary: Read This Book, Then Write to Washington
Review: As always, the U.S. Congress is the last to know. We see Congress fiddling while we burn up the world's dwindling supplies of conventional oil. This easy to read book can increase awareness of this critical issue. Readers of this book can help by speading the word from the grassroots. No one in Washington [or most other capitals]wants to face up to the need for sweeping action, now, before Prof. Deffeyes' "impending crisis" is upon us. How much easier and politically painless to dismiss those who warn us as crackpots or fear-mongers than to face up to the problem. When gasoline rises to $2.00 a gallon, Congress will react by blaming Big Oil for being greedy and collusive -- no matter that a gallon of subsidized milk costs $4.00 -- and offer "solutions" that are too little/too late and mostly wrong-headed as has been proved before. The public will not be fooled for long once it learns that over 600-million prospective acres offshore [fish like oil rigs and producing plaforms, but they don't vote] and huge Federal landholdings in the Rocky Mountain area and elsewhere have been declared off limits or severely restricted. Another problem is the work published by the U.S. Geological Survey of global reserves yet to be discovered which unfortunately provides cover for those choosing to remain in denial. Putting aside various questions about flawed methodology, the way the findings are presented is dangerously misleading. A base case consistent with experience and the ongoing trend is assigned a 95% probability, while a
"pie in the sky" estimate is allowed a 5% chance. Okay, so far. But then they offer a median estimate which results in ultimate recoverable reserves on the order of 50% higher than all but one of 60 some-odd serious studies that have been done. Guess which number is used as the "official" finding of the U.S.G.S.? One final irony: there are proposals to put wind farms offshore Massachusetts and Rhode Island, one of which has been under
"study" for over a decade. It seems the same New England legislators who are advocates of renewable forms of energy elsewhere are opposed to windmills that might be within their range of sight when on holiday at Cape Cod or Narragansett. This is how it will be unless and until the voters demand action from Congress.
Rating:
Summary: The wolf is at the door
Review: Deffeyes hits the nail on the head when he clearly details what petroleum industry insiders already know - it's not "if" global oil production will peak, it's "when." After years of warning about the imminent demise of cheap oil supplies, experts are now splitting hairs about whether or not inexpensive oil production will peak in this decade or the next. The author's easy-going, occasionally humorous prose makes the bad news easier to take, but either way, a serious global oil crisis is looming on the horizon. Deffeyes energizes his readers by sweeping us easily through the denser strata of the complexities and developmental progress that built "Big Oil," but he also warns of relying on technology to save us in the future. Unlike many technological optimists, this life-long veteran of the industry concludes that new innovations like gas hydrates, deep-water drilling, and coal bed methane are unlikely to replace once-abundant petroleum in ease of use, production, and versatility. The Era of Carbon Man is ending. A no-nonsense oilman blessed with a sense of humor, Deffeyes deftly boils his message down to the quick. Easily-produced petroleum is reaching its nadir, and although they are clean and renewable, energy systems like geothermal, wind and solar power won't solve our energy needs overnight. "Hubbert's Peak" represents an important aspect of the energy crisis, but it is only one factor in this multi-faceted problem that includes biosphere degradation, global warming, per-capita energy decline, and a science/industry community intolerant of new approaches to energy technology research and development. An exciting new book by the Alternative Energy Institute, Inc., "Turning the Corner: Energy Solutions for the 21st Century," addresses all of the components associated with the energy dilemma and is also available on Amazon.com. Anyone who is concerned about what world citizens, politicians, and industry in the United States and international community must do to ensure a smooth transition from dependence on dangerous and polluting forms of energy to a more vital and healthier world, needs to read these books. Future generations rely on the decisions we make today.
Rating: 
Summary: Important subject, good angle but weak execution
Review: Deffeyes's book is larded with enough scientific discussion to convince the reader that he has the wisdom and expertise to discuss the world oil situation authoritatively. Unfortunately, he does a poor job of passing that expertise on to the lay reader. He opens with an overview discussing his belief (and not just his) that the world's oil production capacity will soon level off, or peak, and will decline thereafter. In order to provide evidence, he then engages in a long discussion of various facets of oil, trying to answer various questions such as how did oil come to be, where is it stored, how is it located and finally, how is it recovered or "produced"? Having recently read David Goodstein's book "Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil", which references "Hubbert's Peak" and is weak in the very areas in which Deffeyes looked to be strong, I was looking forward to learning the answers to the above questions. By and large, I was disappointed. I found Deffeyes' explanations difficult to grasp unless I exerted strong concentration (you may decide this reflects more on my ability than the author's writing). He often seemed to organize chapters poorly, include details that didn't really shed light on the topic and leave out information about things that an expert might take for granted but a layperson might not know. On occasion reading didn't even seem worth the effort required, in particular a chapter I only half-read called "Rate Plots" which was mostly concerned with Deffeyes mathematical justification for using the statistical methods he did. Such an arcane discussion may be useful to some, but I don't think that it is particularly important to the user who is simply trying to grasp the fundamentals of the problem - the scope and scale of the potential oil shortage and the promise of alternatives. The most interesting and useful chapters discussed just that - the implications of a decline in world oil production and alternatives for meeting energy needs. These chapters were, however, too short, and the information too undeveloped, to allow the reader to really develop a firm conceptual grasp of the problem or draw conclusions about actions that might be taken to prepare for or mitigate the events Deffeyes foretells. For example, nowhere in the book does he present and develop data on past and present worldwide oil usage and projected future usage, information that would be very useful in conceptualizing the problem. All in all, the book seemed rushed, as if, in his haste to finish it, much of the detail that is important to the layman (and difficult for the expert who takes such information for granted) was left out. A few well-constructed analogies or explicit statements of implicit assumptions would have helped tremendously. Still, I did gain some amount of the knowledge that I sought, so the effort wasn't a total waste, leading me to give it three stars.
Rating:
Summary: Important subject, good angle but weak execution
Review: Deffeyes's book is larded with enough scientific discussion to convince the reader that he has the wisdom and expertise to discuss the world oil situation authoritatively. Unfortunately, he does a poor job of passing that expertise on to the lay reader. He opens with an overview discussing his belief (and not just his) that the world's oil production capacity will soon level off, or peak, and will decline thereafter. In order to provide evidence, he then engages in a long discussion of various facets of oil, trying to answer various questions such as how did oil come to be, where is it stored, how is it located and finally, how is it recovered or "produced"? Having recently read David Goodstein's book "Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil", which references "Hubbert's Peak" and is weak in the very areas in which Deffeyes looked to be strong, I was looking forward to learning the answers to the above questions. By and large, I was disappointed. I found Deffeyes' explanations difficult to grasp unless I exerted strong concentration (you may decide this reflects more on my ability than the author's writing). He often seemed to organize chapters poorly, include details that didn't really shed light on the topic and leave out information about things that an expert might take for granted but a layperson might not know. On occasion reading didn't even seem worth the effort required, in particular a chapter I only half-read called "Rate Plots" which was mostly concerned with Deffeyes mathematical justification for using the statistical methods he did. Such an arcane discussion may be useful to some, but I don't think that it is particularly important to the user who is simply trying to grasp the fundamentals of the problem - the scope and scale of the potential oil shortage and the promise of alternatives. The most interesting and useful chapters discussed just that - the implications of a decline in world oil production and alternatives for meeting energy needs. These chapters were, however, too short, and the information too undeveloped, to allow the reader to really develop a firm conceptual grasp of the problem or draw conclusions about actions that might be taken to prepare for or mitigate the events Deffeyes foretells. For example, nowhere in the book does he present and develop data on past and present worldwide oil usage and projected future usage, information that would be very useful in conceptualizing the problem. All in all, the book seemed rushed, as if, in his haste to finish it, much of the detail that is important to the layman (and difficult for the expert who takes such information for granted) was left out. A few well-constructed analogies or explicit statements of implicit assumptions would have helped tremendously. Still, I did gain some amount of the knowledge that I sought, so the effort wasn't a total waste, leading me to give it three stars.
Rating: 
Summary: A layperson's guide to petroleum geology
Review: Depite its title, this book is really about how to find an oil field. It was mostly a layperson's guide to petroleum geology. About a third the way thru' the book diverged from its premise - that we are running out of oil - and didn't return to it until the last few pages. The author is trying emulate the feat of his mentor - Hubbert - who in the 1950s managed to predict US oil production would peak in 1970 when others said it would last forever. The really interesting information, what we are all going to do after 2004 when the oil supply peaks - was missing. The projections of shortage were based on statistical extrapolation of existing oil fields. Of the emerging oil fields in Siberia, the author says "there is no oil in Siberia - only gas". This could be a weakness that might considerably affect the conclusion.
Rating:
Summary: Hubbert's Peak '' Just the facts, Ma'am, just the facts
Review: Easy reading - hard subject. You know that the world's oil reserves cannot last forever. It seems that everyone has their own estimate of reserves. Deffeyes shows that most people who estimate the reserves have a financial interest in coming up with the wrong answer. Hubbert's Peak doesn't just give a number, it tells you WHY that number is what it is. Although the book is fun to read, the message it gives is anything but fun. Knowledge is power. At least people who read this book can start to prepare. Don't buy a gas guzzler for your next car. Don't buy a condo in Hawaii based on current cheap airline fares. This is a really worthwhile book to read. Forget oil's future and start thinking about your own future.
Rating:
Summary: More a sloping plateau than a peak.
Review: Estimating unknown resources, particularly in sensitive political climates and in other cultures, is a very precarious exercise. There are several main weaknesses in the contention by oil expert Mr Deffeyes that world oil production will peak around 2005, and decline somewhat quickly thereafter. 'Hubbert's Peak' refers to a prediction made by a Mr M.K Hubbert in 1956 that peak US oil production would occur in the early 1970s, which turned out to be correct, supposedly dismissed at the time by both government and industry (his historical analysis may be a little rose-coloured here). He has then applied this experience to estimate the timing of peak world oil production. However, the rest of the world is not the US, and the correlation may not be as simplistic as he suggests. For example, the US is the most drilled oil-producing country in the world, increasing both the chance of discovery and recovery of oil, and also both the maturity and reliability of resource figures. Both the timing and level of exploration is significant here, there were few cultural and environmental restrictions on oil exploration in the US in the first half of the 20 century, and alternative sources were not being investigated. (Some countries simply weren't looking for it). This is one reason I think he has under-estimated ultimately recoverable world oil reserves. It might seem a simple mistake for one quite experienced in the field, but I think such a mistake may be easier to see from one looking at the US experience from the outside. Most importantly, this book candidly admits to ignoring nearly all large increases in official estimates of oil reserves from OPEC countries announced in the 1980s (p157), assuming they are politically motivated and therefore entirely spurious (eg Iraq's official reserves have sat at a constant 100 billion barrels since the the 1980s, although production has remained high). He dismisses the increases mostly on the basis that there has been little or no exploration to justify them. He doesn't seem to note of course that they were probably well under-estimated in the first place. One could also argue, that since there has been so little exploration, there is much more also to be found. Again, I think his mistake here is essentially cultural-he assumes too many parallels with the US experience.
He also dismisses USGS figures (ie US government estimates) on ultimate recoverable world oil, far too quickly. USGS ultimate recoverable world oil resources are about 1.5 times higher than his figures (p157). Why the discrepancy? One reason is technologically-improved recovery from known oil fields, which he doesn't seem to even mention. Secondly, I personally think that he allows too much personal prejudice of the USGS to colour his thinking. I have done resource analysis for government, (although not in oil, but in metals) and I have repeatedly been surprised at how quickly and easily some people dismiss government estimates, even when I know I had better access to resource figures than they did. Some people occasionally become selective in pointing out past government errors, whilst at the same failing to acknowledge industry errors. He also has made virtually no concession at all on oil shale, or tar sands, based solely on 20th century experience. He states that oil shale is simply not competitive with the conventional oil price of $US25 barrel (p170), and that seems to be his entire argument. What he fails to even discuss is that with reduced competition from conventional oil, the economics of oil shales changes substantially. Oil shales contain far more oil than all the oil that has so far been produced (one estimate is 242 times conventional oil resources), although not nearly as economically recoverable, true, but his failure to address or properly discuss these resources is telling, especially as regards a potential slow decline after peak oil production. Although I think there are a number of errors and also some cultural bias in his argument, at the end of the day world oil production WILL peak. In defence of the book, there are some quite interesting side-stories and anecdotes of the oil industry, making it easy to read, with plenty of geological discussion (eg how oil forms, how oil companies explore, major discoveries etc). However, in the light of the above and other similar weaknesses, I would push the peak of oil production out a bit further than his 2004-2008 (say, 2015 or later, but really this is still a guess), based largely on the unknown size of Middle East resources, which he has too easily dismissed. And, as pointed out by other reviewers, for various reasons (eg political, oil shales, undiscovered resources, social, cultural) the subsequent decline is not necessarily going to be as rapid as the rise in production during the 20th century, as even his crudest figures might suggest (eg his Figure on page 136 on coal production in Philadelphia- which shows a haphazard decline due to social reasons). One final point, I think the book is mistitled- "Hubbert's peak, the impending world oil shortage". I prefer to think positively-"Hubbert's peak, an era of new opportunity for humankind". Bicycles, conservative use of both oil and cars, renewable energies- I'm personally looking forward to it. But I doubt, on even my crude analysis of his figures, that a major decline in world oil production will start to happen for a few decades or more yet. Of course there may well be some social instability in the interim, but this may also be reduced in various ways, *especially if the decline after peak world oil production is gradual*, as many people think. (eg Lomborg's very good book 'the Skeptical Environmentalist' provides a summary of the optimistic viewpoint, although I think he tends to over-estimate world oil reserves). At any rate, people will adapt, they always have.
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