Rating: 
Summary: Must Know Info for the Investor
Review: Most small investors have never heard of ECRI but understanding the message of this small book will greatly improve your knowledge of markets and your investment returns. ECRI is of more value to me about the direction of the economy than any financial newsletter or the WSJ. It's certainly better than all the experts giving opinions about the economy on financial tv shows.
Rating: 
Summary: One Big Advertisement
Review: The authors of 'Beating the Business Cycles' have achieved a great feat. They have written an advertisement for their ECRI products and make the readers pay for it - 'excellent'! (as Mr. Burns would say). No really, if you are looking for a discussion of business cylcle research methodology etc. this book is one big disappointment. All it does is tell you is how great the ECRI is, and if you read the 5-star reviews below these readers seem to review ECRI not this book.
Rating:
Summary: More style than substance
Review: The title of "Beating the Business Cycle" is misleading in the sense that it does not explain in any real depth the methodologies and techniques used in analytical forecasting to determine turning points in the economy.
The first ninety pages of the book (about half it's total content) provide a historical backdrop to the literature of business cycles and emphasize the fact that ECRI correctly predicted the recession in 2001. In the first half of the book, the authors make only 2 points that have some significance namely,(1) The US economy is more affected by the business cycle movements in other countries than previously thought and (2) ECRI uses a composite index to estimate business cycles. (A composite index is simply an index that uses more variables in estimating an economic indicator). For people who have studied economics at a higher level these 2 points are pretty self evident.
The second half the book has about 30 pages of "meat" where the authors explain the importance attached to 3 key indicators; the WLI (weekly leading index), The FIG (future inflation gauge) and the ECRI cube. Other economist use similar measures to predict the direction of business cycles, but ECRI claims greater success in it's prognostications. Again, the treatment here is simplistic and lacking in detail. We really do not know how FIG and WLI were constructed, why they provide better results than measures used by other economists and what are the deficiencies inherent in these indexes. We are given examples of how ECRI got it right and how others got it wrong, but neither indicator is deconstructed and analyzed to explain why this is the case.
The rest of the book provides examples of how good ECRI are in forecasting business cycles and provides little explanation as to how their research can really help smaller business owners and individuals alike.
On reading the book, one gets the impression that the primary purpose of writing the book is to sell ECRI. The authors cite the fact that they correctly predicted the 2001 recession whereas other economists failed to do so. ECRI followed a contrarian view to prevailing economic thought and were proven successful. However the truth about economics as a science is the fact that economists no matter how good they are may sometimes arrive at a conclusion that is not outcome determinative based on their findings. To put it in another way, if ECRI next time around are wrong in their predictions and some one else is right, it would not make ECRI's research less valuable.
A final thought about business cycles. It is important to remember that business cycle forecasting is limited due to 4 important factors of which 3 are still relevant today.
1. Monetary policy, though often anticipated, cannot be predicted with any degreee of certainty and has a profound effect on how the economy operates.
2. Fiscal policy, that is closely aligned with the political process is also difficult to predict. A recent case in point is the re-election of George Bush. A year ago, many people would have predicted that there would be a democrat in the White House which would have meant significant changes in fiscal policy.
3. Exogenous shocks (outside) shocks can and do affect the economy which are difficult to forecast. A rise in oil prices, or more importantly 9/11 are outside shocks to the economy that cannot be forecasted with any degree of accuracy.
The above 3 points does not make the study of business cycles redundant, but does suggest that business cycle forecasting is a far less "precise " science than others would have you believe. I think it is a difficult job to assertively claim that business cycle forecasters know which way an industry is heading. (I think that job is best left to analysts covering that industry). I think ECRI and other forecasters are more useful in explaining matters such as economic growth and inflation and ECRI has a good track record in these areas.
On the whole, "Beating the Business Cycle", thought written in an interesting manner does little to impart any wisdom the authors have had in their work as business cycle forecasters. The book, promises much but delivers little and is therefore a disappointment.
Rating: 
Summary: Beating the competition
Review: This book helped me see through a lot of the cobwebs most economists spin every day. For once I can look at just one index or maybe 2 and get an idea where things are headed. I hope they bring out another book. Very easy reading. I recommend to anyone with some money at stake in the stock market.
Rating:
Summary: Disappointing
Review: This book was huge disappointment. There was no theory, no math, no real explanation of business cycles, only stories of past successes. The final section on how to use the Weekly Leading Indicators and the Future Inflation Growth indicators was so simplistic and anecdotal as to make astrological columns more useful. Forget this one.
Rating:
Summary: beating the business cycle
Review: well...i pre ordered this book and was happy to get it. i have to say first off that i've listened to mr. achuthan and mr. banerji on bloomberg radio several times, that's why i bought this. they have a very good way of explaining things which for me means in a non buisness speak. i work in real estate so im interested in the economy but not economics, if you know what i mean. that said, this book (which i have not yet read through) does several things well in the two chapters i have read. chapter one: it give an historical overview to the theroy that the two authors espouse. i like that since i don't have the business background. chapter eight: i really like the idea of the "economic dashboard" (this is what was discussed on the radio and in this chapter). in a nutshell it provides a way for me to understand the economic indicators and apply them to my business and also assist my clients by being able to determine pricing AND stay ahead of the curve. i'm looking forward to reading the rest of the book, and reccomend it to anyone interested in better understanding how to assess what you see and hear in all the business reports out there.
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