Rating: 
Summary: Nothing more than one description " Good Book "
Review: I have been following Mr Marc Fabre's articles and books for more than one years. What I can say is he is giving us views not only for short term but also very very very long term. Although I found what he wrote in this book is just the details of his November newsletter contents, it is still worth spending time to study them once again...
Rating: 
Summary: Excellent in macro, lacking in one area
Review: I have followed macroeconomics and markets for some time, and I try to apply my interest on the floor every day. I have always believed that one of the most promising areas of asset returns, cultural dynamism, and solid underpinnings has been Asia. In particular, China, Singapore, and India all have the necessary ingredients to constitute the next great economic powerhouse. And for all of the reasons Faber says, as well as the soft/anectodal evidence that I have witnessed and he has surely witnessed for decades living there. The Asian economies have robust trade balances that give them outstanding investment capital to deploy where they deem the best opportunity for BOTH investment domestically and abroad. This is what has dominated the market during the USD weakness of 2002-2003. I would like to have lunch with the author and pick his brain about the USD break since he published the book in mid-2002 (even though the decline began roughly about the time he wrote the book, a great call on his part and for those who followed his prognosis.) The Asian economies enjoy these capital surpluses, in spite of overborrowing during the Tiger days of the early and mid-90's, which I believe was a recklessly-driven growing pain of an emerging economy as the US had panics in the 19th century. Lately, they have been buying USD debt with trade surpluses, therefore holding down USD rates and supporting USD, a boon to America and the consumer Faber and I believe to be overborrowed, overconsuming, and saving-short Americans. And why not, the policymakers ask themselves? We can grow our economies through exports of cheaply-produced, and knowledge/capital-intensive products. That's a better asset and superior return on investment through growth than any domestic investment or spending opportunity presents.
This dynamic WILL change at some point, but Asia needs at least one more growing pain: their reliance on currency inflexibility to promote their export-driven economies. And I am not saying this for the obvious reasons. I know many think that speculators distort values of currencies, but the reality is that they generally hasten and facilitate the transmission of different global trends that inevitably come as the world grows and changes. And the bottom line is that the currency is just another lever, tool, and/or method to ease the fluctuations of the business cycle. Asia cannot continue to rely on currency pegs and bands as a growth driver; just as Faber says the US cannot continue to relying on debt, assets, and government spending to drive growth. The US deficit would not be as bad if Asian currencies were allowed to appreciate like the Euro and other currencies have. It's a we'll buy-your-Honda's, we'll-buy-your-bonds growth dynamic that can have some potentially disastrous (or easy) outcomes. This is where I disagree with Faber about the promise of Asia. It is a huge risk to their economies, and the longer they rely on it (like US with debt), the more likely the disaster to their economies and societies. It's served them well as precariously emerging markets, but as they mature it will become increasingly difficult to maintain the status quo. I don't want to sound preachy, but you should probably have your eye on your portfolio when the time comes.
How that plays out, I hope the author explores in the future, since it's obvious he has an insightful view on Asian economies as well as market sophistication. I agree with him, buy Asian bonds, real estate, and some equities to diversify your portfolio. Look at ETF's, well-managed funds, and even hedge fund fund of funds to get in this. The US no doubt has the most dynamic, flexible, and solid economic support; but the US has a lot of debt, a dangerously hot real estate market, and energy addiction...Asia is financing much of this. And this money has to come back at some point to finance social investment, entitlements, and domestic ventures in their own countries. Faber believes a globalized economy and investing are now all about identifying social, economic, and political trends and not relying on the buy-and-hold strategy of the 1982-2000 bullmarket across asset classes. And I agree 100% with him that Asia presents the best opportunity to do this. Diversification across asset markets in a couple of countries will no longer do for a good investor; it will be Faber's trends. Though the US will always be an attractive investment and growing economy (remember the US still has the lead in technology and dynamism), Asia is on the horizon. Tomorrow's Gold encourages you to get in while there's value, along with the secondary benefits like commodities, especially in the next decade. Great book, great read, professional outlook, and worth your time. Enjoy it
Rating:
Summary: a persuasive contrarian view on investment
Review: I read this over the Christmas holiday and came around to Marc Faber's way of thinking. In a nutshell, here is what I took away from the book: the fiscal/monetary authorities control how much money sloshes around the world but cannot control where it ends up. In the 1980's and 1990's, excess liquidity found its way into stock and bond markets, asset classes which began the bull market much out of favor (remember in 1980, oil & gas partnerships and gold bars were hot, stocks were 8x earnings and bonds yielded 14%?). As we sit in early 2003, we still have lots of money sloshing around in global markets but he argues we are in a mirror-image situation to 1981: commodities are very cheap and stocks and bonds are expensive. The recent rally in the CRB, in gold, and possibly in real estate, are the "shots across the bow" for a long-term investor shift back to hard assets and commodities in general. Deflation is the fear du-jour but Faber argues that all three major economic blocks (US, Europe and Asia) are debasing their currencies for stimulative reasons, meaning that all currencies are likely to devalue against hard assets -- ie the price of gold, real estate, etc. will rise. The coming inflation (still maybe a year or more away due to weak economic growth) will be bad new for bonds. He does favor emerging market stocks based on their strong correlation with commodity prices. I found the chapter on Kondratieff to be less-convincing and more muddled. However, Faber backs up his arguments with lots of interesting charts and facts and all-in-all makes a coherent and persuasive argument for an emerging markets/commodities long-term bull market.
Rating:
Summary: good stuff
Review: I would recommend this to anyone who isn't so myopic as to realize the world is a big place, and history always repeats itself.
Rating:
Summary: Provocative Analysis of Wealth Flows
Review: I'm a very successful capital markets professional with more than 12 years of experience. I very much enjoyed this book and the attempt to predict where the next wealth enhancing value item might be. The emerging market debt analysis was particularly interesting, but ignored the leverage that synthetics can bring to this market. Credit derivatives (synthetics) allow investors to participate in emerging markets with no money upfront. Credit Derivatives were a nothing market 6 years ago, and grew to $2 trillion in 2002 just in credit default swaps. In a paradigm shift, it has become a very important product in a very short time, and the market in these products is inefficient. For finance professionals, I highly recommend Tavakoli's book: "Credit Derivatives" Second Edition.
Rating:
Summary: a must read
Review: marc is a great student of history, economic history, and markets. he presents a clear, concise, persuasive argument that the best investment opportunities over the next decade are not in north america. it is a must read for investors in a country with excessive levels of debt, low relative competitive advantage, no industrial production growth, and a still highly valued stock market. sadly, most of the country is in denial.
Rating: 
Summary: Waste of time & money.
Review: Muddled reasoning. Pop economics with no statistical basis. Instead of writing an entire book, could have simply summed up his thought as "Deflation, yes; however I still think you should invest in a basket of commodities because of the expected burgeoning demand from China."
Rating:
Summary: Tomarrow's Gold
Review: One of the most thoughtful works on economic history and current world financial trends to appear. Not only is his thesis well documented but also very original compared to the current wisdom of the Wall Street strategist community.
Rating: 
Summary: Long-term story obvious but what about the in-betweens?
Review: Personally, I'm a little tired hearing about the long-term Asia bull story as we don't need to buy a book to realize it. What would be more important to me is if Asia and its governments have the ability ride out the peaks and troughs should the US economy collapse (afterall writers of the emerging "tigers" in the early nineties made similar long-term bull cases only to see their dreams shattered in 1997). As for those long-term sustainable issues, I would liked to have read more on whether or not political stability, democracy and less corruption are all achievable. I am also not convinced that China's economy is strong enough to take up the unwanted commodities if the US really does crash. It is true that many Asian economies gain from rising commodity prices but I would have thought that prices of rubber or palm oil, or any of the other agricultural products at the top of the list are likely to fall if serious problems came to bear at the world's largest economy in the foreseeable future.
Rating:
Summary: A delightfully contrarian account on business cycles
Review: The simple truth about business cycles and economic history conveyed in delightfully contrarian manner:- In a time and age where economists consider business cycle theory unfashionable, why read a book about bubbles and cycles? Because, as Faber says, they exist everywhere all the time. The dot.com prosperity of the 90's made investors arrogantly hedonistic about market cycles; after all, they thought, oil crises, peso crisis, Japanese bank failure were all a thing of the past - happy times are here forever. This book will teach you to be wary of irrational exuberance and the 'error of optimism'. The author is an enthusiastic collector of early 20th century texts on business cycle theory and it obvious he has an excellent command of the field. He quotes widely from classic texts, adding a lot of credibility to his point of view. However, these quotes are sometimes lengthy, boring and feel arcane. Faber makes a wonderfully simple, yet compelling case for any investor to hold a basket of commodities such as gold, coffee, sugar, cotton and grains. The simplicity of argument in this book reminds me of my old professor John Eatwell's "Global Finance At Risk". Discussion on the uncelebrated Kondrateiff Cycle and Batras Social Cycle theory give the argument a nice Contrarian twist. Again, the chapter on The Economics of Inflation presents an interesting Contrarian idea that Hyperinflation, in some cases can depress stock prices Some parts of this book are over stuffed with statistical and geographic examples making the impatient reader yell in exasperation "make your point already!!!." The geographic and country examples probably stem from the authors obvious interest in economic geography. If you don't have the patience for empirical data, you might find the charts and numbers tedious. My only gripe with this book: A distorted perspective of time and an irrelevant contextualizing of history. Faber seems obsessed with the "very long term". He constantly strives throughout the book to prove that in the very long term all investment is worthless. The ancient city of Carthage (what is now Tunisia) 2000 years ago was a major center of wealth, today it is an economic ruin. Investment in Carthage therefore is worthless now says Faber. Why even consider the very long term is my point, why even look at 2000 year business cycles ? Should Faber not be more concerned with business cycles within a human life time ? As Keynes said, "in the long run" after all, "we are all dead." Some data in this book go all the way back to 3100 BC and seem to be too ancient to be relevant in the present. The chapter on the rise and fall of centers of prosperity reads like a history book with detailed references to the rise and fall of cities like Babylon, Rome, Alexandria, Genoa and Goa. The author obviously is indulging in his favorite topic, but perhaps a pet topic will be better placed in a separate book dedicated to itself? Don't get me wrong, the authors views on ancient history is indeed fascinating, but in a book on Investment Opportunities in Asia, it presents itself rather like a sore thumb. Faber seems to go far back in history to project far into the future, all but forgetting that we live in the present! Never the less, this book contains valuable insight and proves to be an excellent read.
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