THE EMPTY CRADLE: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity And What to Do About It

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Summary: The Demograhic Destiny of Humankind
Review: Books about the relationship between the well-being of the human condition and population growth have been controversial since Thomas Malthus. More contemporaneously, Ben Wattenberg¡¦s ¡§The Birth Dearth: What Happens When Free Nations Stop Having Babies?¡¨ drew caustic comments with its proposition that fewer babies have adverse as well as beneficial effects on society and its institutions.

I wish that people could do a better job of rising above their personal values to critically examine books like The Empty Cradle ¡V like the reviewer who criticizes the book because it ¡§promotes the idea that women staying home is the solution for falling birthrates.¡¨ The book does no such thing.

Among other valuable contributions to our thinking, The Empty Cradle reveals that 59 nations representing 44% of the world¡¦s population are headed for population contraction and that this is hastening the aging of societies worldwide, many of which have virtually no infrastructure in place to meet the needs of coming vast waves of elderly, and others whose infrastructures are woefully inadequate.

The upshot is, the health and ƒnwell being of the world economy stands to be challenged as never before by the first population contraction in modern times. We would ignore Longman¡¦s work at great peril to social, cultural and economic institutions ¡V and one might argue even the environment, for the shortage of resources to deal with the problems he describes will almost certainly seriously stress an already over stressed environment.



Rating:
Summary: what a wonderful book
Review: so much demographic data, all tied together in a coherent whole.
ties together a lot of seemingly distinct theories.

Rating:
Summary: Faulty premise yields faulty conclusion
Review: The subtitle says it all. Somehow, in a non-peer reviewed, non-academic setting we are supposed to agree with the idea that prosperity can be positively associated with large numbers of people. Yet, no one asks then what is the purpose of capital investment as opposed to human investment. No one asks about productivity gains that undermine the necessity for more people. No one asks the question of why our schools worldwide are producing mindless students who are good at doing what they are told but very weak in asking important questions. Last and most important, the very title itself runs counter to history and to reality. It's a fact that prosperity has been generated by a few independent minds and taken advantage of by hoardes of free riders. Look at Jobs/Woziniak, the IBM paper on relational databases, Newton/Leibniz, Gauss, Plunkett of Teflon fame, Goodyear - Rubber, Goddard -rockets, Mozart, Thoreau, Karamozov, Kilby, von Neuman, Heaviside, Szilard, Shockley, Mandelbrot, Adam Smith..........and so on.

Quantity does NOT equal quality. The author is mistaken.

Rating:
Summary: It keeps divulguing the ideas that allow women to exploit me
Review: This book promotes the idea that women staying home is the solution for falling birthrates, even explaining that "the work done by a woman at home becomes more valuable, as the husband progresses". This is not correct, a little housekeeping can be bought in the market at cheaper rates. What women are really using is their sexuallity to make men their slaves and put their money at her feet, with the only retributtion being access to their vaginas every once in a while.

Rating:
Summary: Our population implosion, and what to do about it
Review: This volume examines the implication of global fertility decline, and offers some solutions to turn things around.

Longman begins by laying out the data. Today global fertility rates are half what they were in 1972.

Europe of course leads the way, with precariously low levels. Italy for example has just 1.2 children per woman. Spain is doing even worse, with 1.15 children. These two nations are experiencing the lowest fertility rates ever seen in recorded history.

All together, 59 nations making up 44 per cent of the world's population, are not producing enough children to avoid population decline.

What are the implications of such a demographic time bomb? Simply stated, we are rapidly becoming an aging society, with ever shrinking pools of young people. This has very real repercussions on many fronts. But a major worry of governments is how we are going to pay for this growing pool of the elderly, with these declining fertility rates.

As but one example, in Europe today there are 35 people of pensionable age for every 100 people of working age. If present trends continue, by 2050 there will be 75 pensioners for every 100 workers.

Longman asks why this demographic trend is unfolding before our eyes. One major factor is that it simply costs a huge amount of money to raise a child today. The increasing number of working women, and women in higher education, is another factor. So too are such reasons as declining male wages, fear of divorce, rising taxes, the absence of grandparents as child carers, contraception use and abortion.

The economic component is certainly a leading cause of childlessness. Human capital in general, and people in particular, are dwindling because the economy demands more of its workers to be well-educated, while it does not provide the time or the money for that education. In the past the best nurturing and education of future workers came from parents themselves. They were best placed to raise well-developed children who in turn would become productive members of the workplace.

But governments today are simply not compensating parents for this vital role. It simply is not economically worthwhile for parents to pour themselves into their children, when governments do not acknowledge and reward this valuable service.

Parents provide quality future members of the workforce, and they curtail an aging population. The returns to society are huge, but the returns to parents continue to shrink. And taxation is a major means by which parents are penalised today.

In the past governments paid men a family wage to adequately account for dependent wives and children, Today we have nearly the opposite situation, with families amongst the most heavily taxed groupings in society. Parents currently face huge tax burdens which most other individuals do not. Thus it just does not pay to have children.

So how do we turn things around? Removing economic disincentives is obviously key. Substantial tax relief for parents is a first vital step. Longman also proposes the encouragement of home-based employment and family business.

Other options are canvassed. While they may not serve as a panacea, the truth is that currents trends are unsustainable. The increasing growth of the number of elderly people, coupled by a decline in our birthrates, is a recipe for disaster. Any volume that alerts us to the dangers and offers some alternatives, as this book does, provides a useful service indeed.