Rating: 
Summary: A Worthwhile Reminder about Luck
Review: This sometimes self-conscious book-length essay on luck in life and trading provides enjoyable reading. The author's quick wit provides, in some sections, for a very efficiently written text that forces the reader to stop to figure out what point the author is seeking to make. But, after a few moments reflection, the author's points usually become clear. A number of examples emphasize how elementary probability thinking can illuminate situations in life. I especially enjoyed examples that showed how large sample sizes can be used to scam the public. These are good reminders of how easily we can be misled by our gullibility. For me, the two weakest moments in the book came when the author attributed motives to Warren Buffet and took pride in not making money during the upside price movement of the great bull market of the last 10-20 years. In Buffet's case, the author presumes that Buffet is interested per se in accumulating billions. Unless Taleb knows Buffet personally, and there is no evidence of this, it is arrogant in the extreme to attribute motives to Buffet. Taleb ignores the obvious, that Buffet like the rest of us, is a man with a craft who simply exercises that craft to make a living. Taking pride in not exploiting the upside of the great bull market seems like a peculiar deviation from one of the underlying themes of the book, i.e., that the financial markets are populated by occasional rare events and that these events can be exploited for financial gain. The great bull market surely classifies as an extraordinarily rare event. Perhaps the author is so preoccupied with turns of luck that happen over a period of a few minutes to a few days and how to exploit them, that he is blinded to turns of luck that happen over periods of years and is professionally incapable of exploiting them. This should be a warning to anyone who might try to absorb the lessons of this book uncritically. All in all, this is a refreshing addition to the literature on markets and even to the literature on the vast subjects of human behavior and life. The number of reviews for this book on Amazon.com itself is a recommendation to read the book. Nearly 200 people taking the time to comment probably means that the book is stimulating and provocative. For me, it was certainly stimulating. Provocative? No, I was not provoked.
Rating: 
Summary: Rare, useful advice
Review: This is a book about probability and the way we misunderstand it. Author Taleb introduces the concept of the 'lucky fool', and reflects on how we (wrongly) ascribe positive characteristics to the schmuck who succeeds purely as the result of luck. Taleb's domain (and that of the book) is the world of finance. He is quite rightfully scornful of financial journalism, which attempts to fit rationales to the most insignificant movements in asset prices. According to Taleb, most of this price activity is purely random, pointless to predict and futile to explain. The flip side is the tendency of markets (and natural phenomena) to exhibit extreme, unusual behaviour that confounds conventional theory. The occurrence of this skewed behaviour (referred to as the 'Black Swan' problem) has plenty of precedents in financial markets and has bankrupted numerous traders and former experts. As a general rule, practical advice on financial speculation is almost always useless. If Taleb has a core belief, it is that 'I may be a fool, but my edge is that I know I am'. This recognition is not an exercise in humility; it is a prerequisite for success in a world where we are continually fooled by uncertainty and causation. Taleb's book is a convincing, entertaining lecture on probability and human nature. His written style is little difficult to digest, possibly because of his classical influences. His insights are fantastic, though. Anyone who trades or invests should read this book, and reread it until the message sinks in.
Rating: 
Summary: Musings from a Smart and Interesting Guy
Review: Taleb hammers home two or maybe three key ideas, padding them with an eclectic blend of autobiographical references and philosophical/literary yarns. When I put it down, I felt a little bit like I had just shared a brandy with a really smart guy who wanted to spend the evening talking about himself. Fortunately, it works because you get an unfettered (and not heavily filtered or re-edited) peek into a brilliant and well-read intellect. The best thing about Taleb, however in my opinion, is that he possesses that rare quality: he is an independent thinker. In fact, I view the book as having two underlying themes. One, it is a sort of a corny love letter to the massively underutilized science of statistics. I mean, the statistics discussed in the book are surprisingly basic but he reminds us that our everyday common sense doesn't really make sense. Two, it is an inspiring update of an ancient, heroic idea: that there is value to a thoughtful-even stoic-detachment in a world filled with noise and distraction. The big ideas are simple. The usefulness of the book is that he shows you how we generally do not behave as if the simple ideas are true. The biggest idea is survivorship bias. It explains why my book reviews tend to be positive. I generally do not post a review unless I've read the entire book, and I tend to quit books that I don't like. So, my reviews are based on a sample that is infected by survivorship bias. I won't go into the other ideas (i.e., the problem of induction and "our genetic unfitness in the world") except to say that (i) the induction issue is arguably an extension of survivorship bias, so you may feel déjà vu here and (ii) the last section on the "human aspect of uncertainty" is the weakest section. This section really needs an editor to impose an organizing principle, and except for the touching, instructive conclusion, I thought is was one digression after another. Don't expect any math or real depth in the statistics (an endorsing professor on the back cover says the book is "mathematically sound and...renders mathematics exciting for non-specialists." Deceptive endorsements are grating. There isn't any math in this book, to speak of!). However, the idea of survivorship is important enough to warrant a sincere recommendation of this book. How many books give you even a single idea that you can use forever? And, again, Taleb is very entertaining. I almost fell off my chair laughing when he recalls one the weekly meetings at an investment house, with economic strategists making all sorts of announcements and the rhetoric flying. He is so put off that he resorts to speaking a lot in hopes that he won't be invited back. Someone asks if he is bullish or bearish on the market, and he responds that he doesn't understand these words "outside of the their purely zoological consideration."
Rating:
Summary: clear thinking trader with brilliant viewpoint
Review: nassim nicholas taleb has a brilliant viewpoint and brings distant information into clear focus... a necessary read for traders, investors and everyone else (is there anyone else?). one of my favorites.
Rating:
Summary: Survivorship bias
Review: The book it seems to be correponds to intellectual treatment of variations around the survivorship bias (the fact that in a highly random environment one sees only winner and makes flawed generalizations about the properties of the system). Taleb should have perhaps mentioned something about the anthropic principle (it falls right into the argument) --but perhaps his constituents might not want to be overloaded with so many side points. Nevertheless the Anthropic principle deserves a discussion should the author continue the book. Since he seems to be rewriting chap 11 he should add the anthropic principle somewhere.
Taleb has chosen more biology than physics alas --there are some strenths in the biological discussions as he goes into himself --but going into oneself is not sufficient. Intospection is the beginning of science but not science. It is good for a personal essay but science is not built on personal essays.
Still 5 stars because he goes deep into arguments and into himself but there are some things missing nevertheless
Rating: 
Summary: Good Subject Spotty Execution
Review: Very good subject, its sort of an applied probability book with discussions on financial trading. Also some disussion of the psychology of competition. That's good stuff, but the author keeps throwing his own persona into it, and he's kind of obnoxious, to put it politely. Its like a Saturday Night Live character giving an economics class or something. But not quite as funny. If you can get past that though, it's a decent book. I'd like to read more about the subject, but by someone else.
Rating:
Summary: Did Homer turn into a monkey?
Review: The premise of this book is that we tend to trust winners more than they should be trusted: many of them could have "won" (however you want to define the term) by pure luck. Nassim uses the investment traders as an example... say that there are 100,000 investors. 50% of them make 25% on their investments in the first year, and 50% lose 25% in their first year. 10 years later, through pure chance alone some lucky guy might have made 25% each year, becoming filthy rich, just by luck. Next year, he might lose it all (50% chance). And this scenario takes place often enough for Nassim to think that something very close to this is happening in the real world (outside of hypothetical examples such as this one). Another example you've probably heard of... given enough monkeys and enough typewriters, a monkey is bound to write the Iliad. But does that necessarily mean that you should sign him up to write the sequel, The Odyssey? The key to making intelligent guesses about who succeeds based on pure luck and who has actual skill is to examine the initial size of the pool from which the winners were picked. Usually, the losers are invisible... you don't see all the companies that failed with equally valid business models when you look at the Fortune 500. In a world with 6 billion people, it is no surprise that some people happen to be filthy rich... it doesn't necessarily mean you should trust their advice on "how to be successful" however. On the other hand, if the Iliad came out of a scenario where there were only 10 monkeys, chances are higher that Homer's been turned into a monkey. I thoroughly enjoyed this book... it was very enlightening for a non-expert of probability, investment strategies, and randomness like myself. Expert opinions may differ, though, which even he admits. He has a revised version of chapter 11 out on the internet that is really good too (http://home.netcom.com/~ntaleb/chaptereleven.htm).
Rating:
Summary: committment to skepticism
Review: As a quick review I have to say that it is on the intuitive/literary side, with the following components:
1) a high committment to skepticism as a way of life (not just trading or statistical inference)
2) a high acceptance of one's wiring as a director of one's actions.
3) insulation from the opinion of otherss
Rating:
Summary: A little different
Review: Taleb seems to be confused as to whether he is a NOVELIST, a MATHEMATICIAN, an ESSAYIST, a TRADER, an ECONOMIST, a STATISTICIAN, and seems to have settled to be a NOVELIST --though almost a short story writer.
Certainly a different type of book. Should not be found in the investment section but somewhere else. One thing: it is certainly not an investment how-to-do manual which is why it is fun. This is why those who bought it searching for rules to make money in the markets seem to be a bit disapointed.
Rating:
Summary: Fabulous Synthesis:
Review: Taleb brilliantly weaves together ideas from many disciplines. A must read for anyone seeking a perspective on the topic.
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