Rating: 
Summary: "Successful people are all alike (they're lucky)." Tolstoy
Review: Nassim Nicholas Taleb says he's smarter than we are because he knows that he knows nothing. We, on the other hand, labor under the delusion that we do know something. He invests to profit from the inevitable train wreck somewhere down the tracks (1987, 1998, 2000), while our ignorance will destroy us because we don't see the calamity coming. And we don't see it coming because we mistakenly thought we saw a pattern of clear vistas ahead.
This work is one in a long line that looks out at the world and sees only chaos. Since there are no patterns and no repetitive behavior, there cannot be any predictions based on past events or probable behavior.
He would have us believe that hard work, drive, creativity, etc. all play second fiddle to luck when it comes to life's successes. He bases his philosophy on Karl Popper who postulated that there were only two kinds of theories: those which are known to be wrong and those that have not yet been known to be wrong. Thus, no investment theories can hold water and no one can make sense of our uncertain world. And with this as his starting point, Taleb launches into the argument that no matter how long a trader might experience success, he will eventually "blow up," and that blow-up will be proof that no skill was ever involved - just dumb luck. Perhaps the trader simply happened to ride the right trend for as long as it went. Thus, Taleb's corollary is that since nothing works, why waste time trying to find a "system?" It's all random anyway.
Although I would argue many of his suppositions, he does make excellent observations as to why traders blow up: (1) a tendency to get married to their positions, (2) a tendency to change their story as needed so as to justify their long-term investments, (3) no precise game plan ahead of time as to what to do in the event of losses, (4) an absence of critical thinking - they don't learn from their losses, (5) denial - refusal to stare reality in the face. But his best insight is into the failings of professional money management - "the firehouse effect" where mutual fund managers only converse with others in the industry, thereby accepting as common wisdom what an ordinary outsider would see as sheer bunk.
Taleb's chosen investment strategy appears to be as a hunter of crises with a game plan designed to profit from that rare, "ten-sigma" event (sigma = 1 standard deviation). He gives little insight into his own success, based on randomness, but he does favor buying out-of-the-money options. His passing remark that the Crash of '87 made him as a trader could well mean that he was long puts.
A thorough reading of the book leaves us caught between Fama, Merton, and Malkiel's randomness based on an efficient market being rational, and Taleb's randomness based on the market reflecting human irrationality (based on our ignorance of probability and statistics). Both sides believe that the future, for investment purposes, is unpredictable. And how did we get into this fix of playing against a stacked deck? The mathematician and probability expert in Taleb gives us his most revealing statement near the end of the book: "We (mankind) have not had the incentive to develop an ability to understand probability (to make decisions) because we did not have to do so (because we lived in a deterministic world) - but the more profound reason is that we are not designed to understand things. We are built only to survive and procreate." Ugh! After debunking any and all who make claims on the future, Taleb signs off with his main piece of advice: "Good luck."
So what do we have for this effort? Or in Taleb's words, as he would peruse a bookstore's shelves, "Is this book worth my time?" We get a reminder that life is the taking of chances since nothing can be assured for tomorrow. But don't we already know that? Is that not why we do study patterns and make assumptions on what has and has not worked in the past, and build on what we learn? Is that not the basis of Kuhn's "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions?" Perhaps Taleb's randomness (chaos) is merely the interval between paradigm shifts - the confusing time when one set of patterns is discredited while a new set of patterns is being validated. And what of traders blowing up, supposedly proving Taleb's contention that any previous success was luck? Were they merely unlucky, or were they foolish not to heed obvious increased risk. Abundant evidence exists that there is always sufficient warning for this long-awaited ten-sigma event that does (unlucky) traders in. Greenspan issued his warning of "irrational exuberance" at the end of 1996. And there certainly was enough financial media proclaiming "it's different this time" to remind everybody that there has been a "previous time" that was different. Surely there was enough "preparation" or patterns to warn anyone who wanted to consider risk. Mathematicians may dominate the derivatives trade, but the stock market is as much about investor psychology and real economic progress as it is about probability distribution theory. But yes, the book is worth your time. It makes you question what you believe and gives you an opportunity to confirm what you know (a statement that Taleb would certainly never accept).
Rating: 
Summary: A book with an attitude! Unfortunately, not a good one.
Review: First, an admission, I could only make it about half-way through this book. What I did read was neither particularly original nor particularly well written. The real turn-off for me was the tone of the book which was like a second year college student who's learned a new fact and then damns the foolish masses for not being as intelligence as he. There's been other books published that deal with this subject and which do a better job of presenting the facts without the 'Mr. Know-It-All' attitude.
Rating: 
Summary: If you are a new to trading, this book could save you hide.
Review: Deep down, every disciplined scientific mind already agrees with the contents of this book. But Taleb provides a unique and refreshing crystallization of the universal human tendencies towards cause/effect misjudgment, vanity, pecking for rank, and other traits damaging to long-term profitable trading. Every beginning trader should read this and use it as a warning against self-exterminating behavior. Well written, easy to read, by a smart guy with extensive trading experience. There are numerous anecdotes of failure by those who misunderstood randomness (not that its difficult to understand, but the average person is clueless). Unfortunately, there are no examples of the author's trading successes, with explanation of his risk calculations. Ironically, this book will be of the least help to those who could benefit the most - the insecure, pompous puffballs who can't ever afford to admit their luck.
Rating:
Summary: interesting, but somewhat basic
Review: This book will be very interesting for the layman. The author clearly elucidates on a number of counter intuitive topics such as statistical inference, common human biases and so on. The author also does a good job in demonstrating his varied influences and voracious reading habits to the reader. While the reader is (literally) kept hooked to the pages of the book, one is left with the feeling that the author probably had a lot more to say, but was cut off to a sub-200 page book by the publisher. The reader is also left with the feeling that a lot of arguments have been simplified in order to reach a broader audience. One often finds that chapters are too short, and that there is something left hanging, without being treated.
If nothing else, read it for some perspective (especially if you trade/speculate/invest, and definitely if you have found yourself aligned to one particular school of investment thought- be it fundamental or technical).
I have the author's other book on Dynamic Hedging, and it serves as a good complement to this title.
Rating: 
Summary: Chasing Coin Flippers
Review: you fill a room with 10,000 people and give each a coin to toss,
you instruct everyone that tosses "tails" to leave the room. the odds are obvious 50/50 after round one you have approximately 5,000 people left in the room, round two 2,500; after approximately 13 rounds of this.... you have one person remaining.....one person that has pulled off the increadible feat of flipping heads 13 times in a row does this person posses skill at coin flipping....do they have some power over random events...... consider this the next time you are chasing a hot mutual fund manager or style.....if the numbers are large enough, someone will appear to defy all odds
Rating:
Summary: Thought provoking read on the probability of extreme events
Review: I thoroughly enjoyed reading this book. It served to remind me of the meaning of the saying "I'd rather be lucky than smart." The author offers a number of descriptive examples of highly unlikely events that have occurred--contradicting consenus opinion.
Rating: 
Summary: Style and Substance Comments
Review: First I'll present a comment about style, then a comment about substance. The writing style isn't concise, and several sentences have a verb after a long subject. Beginning writers often make this mistake when trying to sound grand. The writing is peppered with presuppositions. This makes the ideas easier to agree with, but if one doesn't agree, it is merely annoying to be led in this fashion.
The substance itself is mildly entertaining, but the book doesn't live up to its packaging. The cover is lovely. The book lacks sufficient content. The statistics are rudimentary. The philosophy is selective. I didn't find this book satisfying.
Rating:
Summary: funny, entertaining and, alas, true
Review: i read this book twice and i have to say that is was even more entertaining the second time than it was the first. true taleb sometimes gets into some bombast but he does not seem to take himself as seriously as other egomaniacs and he comes across as an entertaining fellow at the same time completely absorbed into his mapping of a world stripped of cognitive illusions. there are so many things in this book one takes for granted that it questions then one realizes "hey I've been telling myself these things" but it is surprising how one forgets them (genetics of humans not made to introspect I guess is part of the message). taleb's point is that we are not made to understand probability yet have to live in a world with which we have a genetic mismatch.
one part of the entertainment is the following people taleb seems to take pleasure trouncing:
1- rich traders who think that they are smart but in fact were lucky --the category extends to the rich businessmen who find causes to their success
2- journalists like george will (why so much dumping on george will?) who think they see a cause when there is none
3- people who read the press and think that they understand the world simply from seeing connections between things that may or may not have a connection
4- scientists who are not popperian -i.e. without self-doubt
5- taleb- taleb v/s taleb engaging in a war brain-genes. taleb trounces taleb though not as convincingly
now i happen to know the author and all i have to say is that he is just like the book ...
Rating:
Summary: rare events
Review: The idea here is not so much that we are fooled by randomness but that we do not know how to handle unobservables. Of these unobservables the rare events is the major problem: we do not know its probability and do not even know where to start. Humility and saying "I don't know" is a course of action very few have to ability to do.
200 comments is a lot ---and few get the point.
Rating:
Summary: Anecdotes not Facts
Review: Taleb's writing is repetitive and anecdotal instead of researched. The theory of luck claimed as skill is not new, but would be worthy of a read again if it were supported by facts.
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