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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $17.61
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Critical review from a trader
Review: I picked up this book because I read Mr. Taleb's quantitative derivatives book, Dynamic Hedging. Dynamic Hedging was an extremely insightful and intuitive foray into vanilla and exotic options. It was enhanced by Mr. Taleb's occasional commentary on life in the markets. I imagined that an entire book containing Mr. Taleb's viewpoints on probability would be compelling.

It was indeed compelling. But I did not wholly agree with him. I suppose that is my right.

At risk of great oversimplification, Taleb argues quite articulately that extreme occurrences in a distribution happen a lot more frequently than humans are prone to believe. Ergo, in derivatives trading, it makes no sense for one to be "frontspread" (short gamma/vega). Ever.

My experience is in equity derivatives. Mr. Taleb's is presumably in fixed income and FX. Without knowing much about the world of FX options, I can assert that in the equity listed options markets, downdrafts in volatility can be almost as deadly as explosions in volatility. The vol crush of the summer of 2000 wiped out as many traders as the Russian debt default of 1998. Out of the money options are never cheap; lots of people buy them for the protection that Taleb seeks. Sometimes even they are too expensive to own.

Going further, I found Mr. Taleb's insights on the role of luck in human performance to be EXTREMELY unsettling. He talks at length about the rich idiot trader and the vastly more competent but underpaid trader (presumably himself). He goes on to ascribe most of those who are wildly successful in life to LUCK, and that individuals ascribe way too much of their own success to their own ability and hard work (which he scorns).

I find this to be frightening. I'm sure Mr. Taleb would find this reaction entirely predictable. The implications are most frightening, from a political standpoint: if most wealth is undeserved, then therefore it can be rightfully taxed (expropriated) and redistributed to those are not so lucky. Furthermore, most individuals who despise hard work do so not because they are brilliant, but because they are lazy. Evaluation of a particular person's work ethic is an imperfect but reasonably good indicator of performance.

Many of the MBAs he derides as being shallow thinkers and pluggers, while may not be (ahem) the intellectual giant that Taleb is, are no slouches themselves. They do not represent the legions of clueless option sellers that Mr. Taleb has somehow encountered throughout his career. Most young associates do have the luxury of telling their boss they did not read the Wall Street Journal in the morning because it represents nothing but random noise.

As you can tell from this review, I enjoyed the book. Otherwise I wouldn't be so critical of it. I couldn't put it down. You probably won't agree with all of it, but it will cause you to think about things in a very different way for a long time.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Fascinating and Informative
Review: A highly unusual book, and an excellent read. Nassim Taleb takes us through hilarious anecdotes and scathing attacks on conventional approaches to business, thought, and trading. He covers Greek philosophers up to current journalists in a flowing, amused, and somewhat detached, analysis of success and failure. The reader emerges from this inspired amalgam of lessons on risk and return both enlightened and satisfied.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Investing prowess and Lady Luck
Review: Now that was an entertaining read. Mr. Taleb is clearly one sharp cookie - what I found pleasantly surprising was his display of a razor-sharp wit to boot. How refreshing it was to finally read a book from a trader who can understand the difference between good decisions and good outcomes in the investment decision making process. I would highly recommend this book - particularly to any investors who were fortunate enough to have made money during the Internet craze and who are dazzled by their own investment prowess.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Something to read again
Review: Obviously Mr. Talleb is much more than just a mathematician. His unconventional way of sharing a usually dry financial story, gives us an entirely new way of looking at ourselves and those around us. I found the book stimulating and eloquent...all readers, no matter how little or how much they already know about randomness, will learn a great deal about themselves and those who make their money. He dares us to ask questions that most of us never would, about our life and money. I'll read it again. I wonder, is he a philosopher, trader or mathematician? We know he's a great story teller!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Fun
Review: This is a very playful and amusing book. I couldn't put it down. Anxiously awaiting the sequel.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Will become a classic of Popperians, probabilists, dentists,
Review: The best Popper read to come around since Popper, who himself couldn't explain the problem of induction and its implications with such intuitive understanding.

Taleb takes us on an entertaining sojourn through the philosophy of randomness, a winding path that will leave you in anticipation at each perilous bend. It will undoubtedly be shunned by many who cling to their naive empirical supremacy.

No matter your background, "Fooled by Randomness" will help to better perceive what unfolds before your eyes -- our one measly sample path.

More relevant and important now than ever.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: a must read!! Taleb is brilliant and very entertaining
Review: Insightful, educational, and sometimes even hilarious. Taleb has a rare ability to weave probability theory, ancient history and philosophy into entertaining and easy to read prose...Taleb has a style all his own... and now he has moved beyond
books for derivative geeks and written one for everyone...

buy this book.. read this book... you won't be disappointed

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A reality check for all investors
Review: This book is a must read for all investors however sophisticated they think they might be. In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Taleb sheds light on an aspect of investing that very few players are ready to acknowledge for fear it would deal a massive blow to their egos: Lady Fortuna, the role that pure luck plays in any investment performance. It is an essential reality check for those who are so obsessed with return that they forget about its inescapable companion, risk. Taleb is a master at illustrating complex mathematical concepts with very simple images that anybody can understand. Take the powerful image of the Russian Roulette: You don't need a PhD to immediately grasp the concept of alternative histories and realise that you have to judge a performance by the cost of the alternative rather than just the most favorable outcome. In addition to being very informative, this book makes for very entertaining reading. I recommend it wholeheartedly.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Too much ego in the way of some great thoughts
Review: In my opinion, the book has some very important, useful and subtle points to make about the role of randomness in the markets. Unfortunately, and ironically, these gems are scattered randomly throughout the book, and you must fight through the author's need to constantly tell you how smart he is to get to them. IF you are willing to wade through tons of nonsense, you will learn something from this book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Spellbound!!!
Review: I read this book in almost a single sitting. The author draws you into a world of his own where you start becoming critical of shallow thinkers arond you. I personally have no patience for pretentious shallow thinkers and somehow I feel that Taleb is vindicating me. Some parts are immensely entertaining.
The end may be a little too short. I wish the author went more into the biological reasons for our probability biases. I also think that he was a little harsh on George Will, as there are plenty of worse journalists around.


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