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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $17.61
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Very very interesting - and very good about randomness
Review: I nearly did not buy this book because of some of the very negative reviews on these Amazon pages. But I'm glad I did. At the time of writing, the average review of this book is a mediocre review, but at the time of writing this review there are no actual mediocre reviews. The explanation is that the variance of the reviews is very high, either very good or very bad - which averages to mediocre. I find that when there is a high variance in surveys completed by people, the subject matter of that which is surveyed is often more interesting than the subject matter of surveys which yield more or less unanimously good or unanimously bad reviews. (Bimodal rather than unimodal distibutions in other words). This is the case here.

If any of the above makes sense to you, then you will understand where Taleb is coming from, to coin a phrase. To take some of the criticisms made in other reviews: is Taleb a boasting egomaniac? No - quite the opposite, he tells stories against himself and states that he suffers most of all from the faults that he identifies in others; does Taleb fail to deal with major issues in statistics? No - but I suspect that to some people who lack a solid grounding in the principles of statistics, it may seem that he does, because he is primarily concerned with dealing with issues beyond those treated by our current statistical methodology, for example the propblem of induction and falsification (as in Hume, Popper and Nelson Goodman).

There will be little new theoretical material in this book for those who have a background in mathematics, quantitative finance, quantitative economics or philosophy (in the analytical rather than the continental tradition), but the value of Taleb's book is in two things. First, he applies the theoretical to practical trading problems, or more specifically he shows the reader how to apply the gaps in the theory to trading, and also to life in general. Secondly, Taleb is interested in how life should be led, and makes the connexion between this ancient but ever-important question and the problems in statistics. He mentions Hume and Kant, I can't remember if he mentions Aristotle, but he does not mention Epictetus - however, in respect of how we should live, Taleb's book is in certain senses a follow-up to some of these authors, though as Taleb would be the first to assert, not in any way pretending to be on their level.

Taleb has a good writing style. In this sort of subject it is very easy to drop names and quote quotes, but Taleb keeps such academic strutting to a minimum and writes entertainingly. I found it a very good read.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Better to be lucky than smart
Review: This is an extremely insightful and entertaining book. And wise. My mother always told me it was far better to be lucky than smart--as a matter of fact, whenever I got good grades, she'd always say, Lots of luck! And good traders make money, period. A bit arrogant, but so is harsh love, this book being one of the intellectual variety. Nassim Taleb will always inform, expose, ridicule, and above all, enlighten. This is a must read for thoughtful traders and trading room managers--and their wives.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Fooled
Review: If you want to know how clever, intelligent and generally great the author is, buy this book. If you want to know about "The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life", forget it. There is not much here except lots about Mr. Taleb. The book is a huge disappointment. But, as in many other things in life, one takes a chance when one buys a book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Original and Genius
Review: The book is original and the writing style is genius. I strongly recommend this book to anyone interested in the randomness of life (traders, medical doctors, your grandmother). However I am not sure if it was serendipity rather than genius that lead Nassim to come to this book. Only a second volume will prove his real genius. I am looking forward to it.

The only minus with the book itself is the complete lack of option formulas. But on the other hand this is good as even a fool can get the brilliant points from this book. So I predict the book in no time will reach 100 thousand copies sold.

Espen G. Haug
(The Option formula Collector)

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A Light of Reality on Wall Street and its Heroes
Review: Taleb applies his wit and intellectual rigor to debunk the myths concerning "superstar" traders, "normal" market dynamics, as well as our perception of our own successes and failures. The book succeeds in rendering to the reader a vision of current events unfolding as but one manifest outcome from a manifold of potential probabilities -- from market events to one's own career path -- as if he sat upon Taleb's probabalistic mountain-top.

The book is highly readable and will provide a great deal of enjoyment to those who have spent any time on wall street with their critical faculties intact.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A new way to think about mathematics and probability
Review: In this entertaining book, the autohr showed us mathematics is not only calculus but a way to look at our daily life.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: The web site is good too .......
Review: I thought the review "Critical review from a trader" was right on. Rather than repeat a lot of what was articulated above, I thought it useful to point out to others that Mr. Taleb's web site is chock full of interesting stuff . Of special note is Mr. Taleb's positive review of Mark Rubenstien's "Picture Book" , which I have since purchased and thought was AWESOME. In fact Rubenstiein goes beyond a good read to make learning about derivatives actually fun-SERIOUSLY !!!! . It is a particularly good read after "Fooled by Randomness" as it details some powerful ideas to manage a portfolio in a sea of randomness. Conclusion, read Fooled by Randomness and then the Picture Book; in that order and you will think about/analyze investments in a far more comprehensive way. Taleb scares you (a good thing) and Rubenstein points you in a direction (a really good thing).

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Do read this book !!!
Review: After carefully reading this book for 3 times, I could say that every single page of this book contains more knowledge than the results of 50 hours of trading, risking, seeking, testing and researching... I would pay my half capital to get this book, just to learn about the well-hidden specific dangers in which the rest half capital would be exposed to. This book is not perfect just as my aspect of view isn't too. However do read this book... I am sure that you will either hate or Love it, but whatever your case will be, there aren't many books that could make you think so much after reading them...

Furthermore, this book will probably give you a tremendous quantity of enjoyment and laugh. I wish I hadn't read it yet!

Ektoras. (AI researcher, statistician, derivatives market maker, Trading Systems developer)

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Fooled by a Title
Review: Fooled by Randomness actually fools the customer into thinking that the book is about randomness. The prologue contains the meat of the book. The rest is fluff. The author has some good ideas but he never delivers any substance to the reader. If you are looking for a technical book on randomness and the role of chance in the markets and in life, this isn't it.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Sequel worse than original
Review: This book contains a number of brilliant observations that can be quite thought provoking and that are definitely applicable to other areas. In addition, his rendition of the blow-up of a trading desk he observed personally is both colorful and, in all likelihood, accurate. However, it takes a Herculean effort to get to these nuggets of gold (most of which can be found in his first book anyway) - his oversized ego and need to validate his theory and himself personally get in the way.


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