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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $17.61
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Great!! (if you have a head to UNDERSTAND its points)
Review: Taleb is explaining how we get fooled. We all get fooled, so much fooled that most people do not realize how much of their life is a reult of luck etc.

Bear in mind! those people that claim not to understand what the book has to say, have not got the point. That's all.

It is also wonderful that he is mixing it with interesting and good written stories and anectods.

A must read, for everyone that knows how we people tend to have mistakes. If you are sure that you are smart enough, do not wast your time. You are probably "smart" already.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: No need for another book like this
Review: The book could have been better written if there had been a topic. The title is attractive enough for me to open the cover, but the contents are loosely connected with repetition. Lack of detailed rigorous proof is also the weakness although the author claims to be otherwise. If you are sitting on the beach in Bali, you might want to pick this up. For me, I rather spend my time with something more worthwhile.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Intiguing but ultimately unsatisfying
Review: I bought FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS after reading the Malcolm Gladwell profile on Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the April issue of the New Yorker. Like others who have reviewed this book, I found that Gladwell captured the most important details of Taleb's thoughts in a shorter, more entertaining way. However, I thought that this book can be a worthwhile read for those with a passion for this type of book.

FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS is an introduction to the difficulties human beings have at reasoning around probability. Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events. Taleb discusses the results of this embedded flaw in human reasoning in three areas.

In part 1, Taleb discusses impacts of 'rare events' on both financial markets and on human history. Taleb argues we should beware seemingly successful strategies if they are not proven by the test of history. In particular, we should examine human history in the long term for general trends and treat skeptically claims that humanity has reached 'the end of history' or 'a new economic model' where the old, proven rules do not apply.

In part 2, Taleb discusses the 'survivor effect', or mistaking success based on luck for success based on skill. In particular, Taleb warns against judging a strategy by its actual results. Instead, we should judge strategies based upon a sum of all possible outcomes.

In part 3, Taleb briefly discusses 'tricks' he has developed to try and derail his flawed, ingrained, statistical reasoning and live a rational and, to a great degree, classical life based upon a good understanding of the effect of randomness on our lives.

The book is peppered with classical references to ancient philosophers and literature, as well as humorous anecdotes to Taleb's own experience in the world of Wall Street. Unfortunately, interesting nuggets and provocative thoughts throughout the book are rarely fully explored. While I was entertained and intrigued, when I got to an end of a chapter or section, I often felt dissatisfied, as if I was trying to wrap my arms around some meaty ideas and came away with empty air.

Unlike other reviewers, however, I did not find Taleb particularly pretentious. In fact, I often felt that Taleb was more than open with his own particular foibles and failings. His only source of pride seemed to be in realizing that he had these failings. Ironically, Taleb attributes this understanding to the experiences suffered in his own personal, contingent history.

Overall, I found the book to be like a good Chinese dinner: entertaining at the time of reading, but left hungry an hour later.

Dav's Rating System:
5 stars - Loved it, and kept it on my bookshelf.
4 stars - Liked it, and gave it to a friend.
3 stars - OK, finished it and gave it to the library.
2 stars - Not good, finished it, but felt guilty and/or cheated by it.
1 star - I want my hour back! Didn't finish the book

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Bludgeoning a point
Review: Nassim's point on how luck is claimed as skill would be great if supported by facts. His writing style is very anecdotal, repetitive, and hard to read. This book reads like one of those business presentations that you listen to and then wonder what you've heard after it's over.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: TIME WELL SPENT
Review: I found this book informative. It does a very good job of illustrating the difficulty of dealing with quantitaitve financial decisions and our own reactive emotions.

The insights provided made the reading of this book time well spent.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Reading time is precious
Review: I read this book several months ago. Half is a haphazard memoir and half is a preface to statistical and behavioral science.
I read Malcolm Gladwell's article, "Blowing Up: Wall Street's heretic counts on disaster" this morning. (The New Yorker, April 22/29 double issue, 2002, pp. 162-167.) This article features the book's author (Taleb) as well as related facts and issues.
The NYer article is more informative, better written, and takes much less time to read.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Good thought piece
Review: I first heard Nassim speak at a TradingMarkets event and was totally floored. I immediately picked up his book and became completely immersed in what he had to say. Coming from a background in technical analysis, I really had issues with what he had to say but slowly I began to consider his more interesting ideas. I'm not saying that I agree with everything he believes but I am now more than willing to consider his ideas about how and why things happen. The hard part is figuring out how that integrates into the best trading strategy for me. If anyone figures that out, let me know.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Randomness Awakening
Review: ... I got this book last week and read it in one sitting. I simply could not put it down. My dormant OR background, combined with my recent experience in financial risk management, with this book working as a catalyst, really stirred my brain up. It was difficult to explain the experience that I felt after reading the book, perhaps I can call it a randomness awakening experience.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Excellent book
Review: I loved this book. It reminded me a lot of Education of a Speculator. It makes you think but it is fun to read. It also teaches you to look at worst case scenario instead of ignoring it. I highly recommend this book

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Worthwhile thought-provoking read
Review: I recommend reading this book. The greatest value of this book is in its frank, unconventional and wise discussion of success in life. I find the book a little "rough" in its informal organization and very judgmental tone, but this need not deter or detract the reader from the book's main value. Reading the negative reviews on this book I can't help but wonder whether those readers felt emotionally attacked by one of the author's judgmental rants. Although these rants have a tone I personally would not take, I recommend a reader being a good sport, be entertained by the rants and not let it get in the way of the more meaningful points of the book.


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