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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Second Edition

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $17.61
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A brilliant iconoclastic view on just about everything
Review: I read a lot of books in non-fiction, books related to finance, economics, popular science, history. I have no doubt in saying that this is one of the best books I read in my life!

Taleb's iconoclastic views are not just about financial markets, a field he is well-versed with, but question perhaps the whole of current social order. In a world of uncertianty where much depends on chance events, success often is not about survival-of-the-fittest, but survival-of-the-luckiest. All of us understand pay- offs, in so far as they are more visible and can be measured easily, much better than risk. Besides we all love simple explanations for a complex phenomena. Poor understanding of risk coupled with penchant for over-simplification results in a culture that celebrates all success and victories, of whatever variety, in equal measure.

Taleb's writing style has intensity and depth, and his unconventional, but theoritically sound, views make this yet another book on the over-written field of financial markets a gem. Anybody who makes a living in hyper-competitive walk of life, specifically financial markets, will either love or hate Taleb, but won't ignore him.

Taleb doesn't spare anybody who don't follow what they preach, be it celebrity fund managers or nobel laureates! It seems that a lot of efficient-market-hypothesis enthusiats are wannabe active money managers who couldn't make it!

I don't expect this book to top any popularity charts, but then in a Talebian world what is too popular must also be mediocre too!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Please read this book, before you hurt yourself investing
Review: This may be the best book I've ever read on the importance of intellectual competence, rigor and honesty in devising trading and investment strategies. The author makes clear that as opposed to other disciplines such as medicine and science, the effects of low-probability scenarios (so-called "random events", not random at all) must be incorporated into investment programs. By the end of the book, it is impossible not to share his respect for probability.

The author's points regarding the risks of ignoring randomness are, by the end of the book, irrefutable; his presentation, in which his deeply intellectual mind shows through, is fascinating and entertaining.

This is an 'investment book' only in that investment scenarios can sometimes offer clear examples of the dangers of misunderstanding probability and randomness. Unlike many 'investment books', this author doesn't insult readers by offering trading strategies that are sure to be arbitraged away by the time they are read. Instead, he offers his unique perspective, in order for us to improve our discipline and processes in developing trades.

I encourage you to buy this book, read it, then take a long walk and think about it. Whether or not you extend the author's points to your portfolio and trading, I think that he has illuminated a pathway to improved critical reasoning ability.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: A different perspective
Review: This is a great book that offers a different perspective on the world of finance than your average subpar books written about the markets, trading etc.

It enables the reader to question their understanding of 'cause and effect' and look deeply into the role chance plays in our everyday lives too. The reader will probably think twice about using phrases such as 'being at the right place at the right time' after reading this.

Some may consider Taleb to be opinionated, arrogant and pedantic, but one must separate the man from his message and enjoy the book for what it's worth.

I highly recommend this book. It will enable the reader to understand the way humans are programmed to think.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A Masterpiece in handling randomness
Review: If you are thinking of buying this book so you can beat the market, you would most likely be disappointed.But this is a great book about how to handle risk and randomness in real life. Although most of what is covered in this book is not new to me, as I have spent the last 2 years reading about evolutionary psychology and behavioral finance, this book still helps me a lot. It integrates what I have learned so far in a good perspective and his funny brand of idiosycracies should help me at times to enjoy randomness. Of course, I must admit that I am lucky so far and with Taleb help I should avoid some unluckiness in the future.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Not so fooled by randomness
Review: We all want to believe that it can be figured out. The author reminds us that we cannot impose order by our wishes.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Absolutely charming
Review: Taleb's first book, _Dynamic Hedging_, is the options trader's trading book. Easily the finest book on the subject, it has just enough math for rigor, and plenty of intuition and application. So I picked up _Fooled By Randomness_ to see what the man would have to say with many more words and many fewer equations. This is a wonderful book, full of humor and subtlety. Don't expect it to impart the secrets of success in the financial markets -- it's more a collection of anecdotes and thoughts from a successful career. But it sheds light on the kind of thinking necessary to ensure longevity in trading.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Same Strength and Weaknesses
Review: The book's weaknesses lies in the fact that 1) it is not a textbook, 2) it is not linear (more of a meditation than a treatise), 3) it is personal. Its strength also lie in that. It is entertaining and personal, and certainly not dry at all for it. Veryb unusual for such a topic usually treated by nerdy electrical engineers .
It can rub some people the wrong way (the author trashes those he believes take themselves seriously but this includes himself!).
At any rate Nassim says that he writes principally to entertain himself. He certainly entertained me.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Low on usefulness -- high in egocentricity
Review: This book is like a carton full of plastic peanuts. You search through the peanuts to find something of value and are ultimately disappointed. If you are not interested in an author-centered, name dropping. personal history , don't buy this book.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Fooled by Taleb
Review: "A taxi cab driver told me laughing that the best parts of this book are the hard cover and the beautifully coloured jacket. But more on its virtues later. Let me close this paragraph by repeating what I said in the beginning...Finally, it is worth noting that Plato, Kafka and Popper clearly predicted that I am the greatest."

This is of course not a true quote from the book but shows how it sounded to me while I compelled myself to reading it from cover to cover in order to dis-cover something interesting and clearly presented. Alas...no success!

Here is just one rather typical true quote from the book showing style and consistency: Under the heading "Computing instead of thinking" we read on page 188 "One Harry Markowitz received something called the Nobel Memorial Prize (which in fact is not even a Nobel Prize...An immediate result of Dr. Markowitz's theory was the near collapse of the financial system in the summer of 1998 (as we saw in Chapters 1 and 5)...Drs. Merton and Scholes...caused the birth of your humble crisis-hunter's [the author's] firm, Empirica - as capital started flowing to people who did the exact opposite of what they did for a living." What an achievement over the criticized approach, to do exactly the opposite! Notice also the abandonment of any randomness in this strategy!

Summarizing: it is the reader who is fooled - by the author. Two stars (one for the contents, upgraded to two because, as I said before, the book looks beautiful on my bookshelf).

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Solid assessment - poor presentation
Review: This is an tough book to review. I give it 3 stars because the points he makes are valid and should be more widely understood. Unfortunately you must wade through much rambling to find them. He seems more interested in proving that he's as arrogant as people expect him to be than in discussing the key points at any length. With a fairly strong background in probablility assessment and risk evaluation I was able to follow his arguments reasonably well but I suspect anyone who does not already understand probabilities and Monte Carlo modeling will not understand the points he is trying to make. This is because the explanatory points are almost always one sentence buried in a rambling paragraph. Our society would be better off if every citizen understood his points but I don't think this book will enlighten many people. On a side note - I don't know what book several of the other reviewers read but it wasn't this one. Nowhere does this book discuss specific trading strategies or approaches or taxes. Several reviewers also clearly didn't follow the discussion. The point of survivorship bias is not that it proves LUCK is responsible for a given individuals success in any of the many areas where it holds. The point is that you don't KNOW the source (luck or skill) and you can't PREDICT future results.


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