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Summary: This is one of the most relevant researched business books.
Review: I felt that this book not only was well researched but had a lot of credibility as one looks to the year 2000. There are many more things to be excited about than to fear. A great read!
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Summary: Current events may prove Dent too optimistic....
Review: In response to the previous reviewer's contention that Dent has correctly called the current correction in the stock market, one must take into context the assumptions Dent made, many or all of which have proved thoroughly incorrect: Dent assumed the following from the premises of the book and recent newsletters that: (1) Asia would stablize and Hong Kong stocks would be a buy at 14,500 (Hong Kong stocks now 7,000!); (2) small stocks would outperform large cap stocks in 1998 (they are in a bear market); and (3) inflation, economic growth, and corporate profits would accelerate throughout 1998 resulting in a summertime correction in stocks from an overheated economy (the exact opposite is true as GDP growth is slowing, corporate profits are collapsing, and inflation is headed to 0%). Dent has made the classic mistake of extrapolating the recent and now flagging economic boom safely into the future based on data going back only to the post-WW II period. Dent seems to assume that the growth period of the 1950s-1990s is self-contained, having no antecedent. Namely, Dent does not take into account the demographic forces that began in the population boom of the 1870s to the early-1890s, which culminated in the great productivity and consumer boom of the then global economy of the 1920s. The peak in the population boom in 1893 or so gave rise to the boom and subsequent global debt liquidation panic and bust of the Great Depression that peaked some 40 years later. Today, the population boom of the late-1930s to the late-1950s and early-1960s (1961?) and the associated forces of demographic maturation threaten to cut short Dent's anticipated boom ten years earlier than he expects (1958-61 plus 35-40 years brings us to 1993-1998 boom peak and possible global economic decline to bottom somewhere in the first years of the next decade). Given that Dent's currect forecast derives its bases from his previous work "The Great Boom Ahead...", the following previous analysis is instructive: While Dent provides an interesting analysis based on the demographic forces that have driven economic growth, he misses on at least a couple of points. First, he defines the baby boom generation as having begun with Americans born between 1946 and 1964, an arbitrary choice at best. Persons born in the middle- and late-1930s and early-1940s had ostensibly the same life course and spending patterns as individuals born in the next decade or more. That is, these individuals married in their 20s, bought homes, appliances, and autos and had children in similar numbers. A person born in 1938-39 would have entered the workforce in the early 1960s and, had the person gone to college, he or she would have graduated and would have also entered the workforce in the 1960s. Where I find no fault with his argument that individuals born in the 1940s and early- to mid-1950s are baby boomers, I do contend that he extends the generation too far forward. Second, I argue that anyone who cannot remember the death of JFK, did not vote in a presidential election until after 1976, and who entered the workforce during or after the recession/depression of 1980-1982 is NOT a baby boomer by Dent's demographically-based definition. These so called "baby busters" earn significantly lower inflation-adjusted entry- and mid-level wages and salaries; they pay significantly higher payroll taxes than boomers in their career- and household-forming years; and they are subjected to a completely different occupational structure lacking in promotional opportunities and the prospects of a consistently increasing future earnings stream from employment. Furthermore, busters are marrying later and significantly more debt burdened at an earlier age than their generational predecessors, thus unable to spend at the same rate as boomers. If one were to then assume that the boomer generation "actually" began in the late-1930s and the early-1940s, then the oldest members of this cohort have already begun to, or within the next couple of years, begin to take their Social Security checks (age 62 as the vast majority do), begin IRA/401K distributions, or at least reallocate assets to reduce risk. This could account for an additional 8-10 million individuals (4 million households), of which approximately 3-4 million are direct or indirect owners of stock and bond mutual funds, whom Dent has chosen to ignore. Also, based on his analysis, Dent predicted that the Dow would peak at around 8500 in 2007! Little did he realize in 1993 with the Dow at 3300 that his forecast would be off by a mere 10 years, as the Dow closed at 8300 earlier this year (1997). According to one of his recent newsletters (October 1997), he predicts a Dow 21,500 by 2008 (when the first of his boomer cohort born in 1946 turns 62). Talk about revising a forecast! A 250% revision! What changed?! With older boomers cashing out in the next few years (2000-03) and busters lacking the incomes and job security to sustain the boomer-led consumer boom, Dent's accurately anticipated boom of the 1990s and 2000s may be a total bust by 2001-2002.
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Summary: Finally, an economist that knows what drives the economy.
Review: Mr. Dent offers a logical format for making long term, macro-forecasts. The main basis of his research centers around population waves that occur every 40 years through out history. He maintains that these population waves drive not only consumption, but new inventions that in turn lead to higher productivity. There are a host of other events tied to the fundamental premise of population waves. Mr. Dent uses this premise to explain why we have long term market fluctuations, inflation, deflation and rising and falling interest rates during these market cycles. He makes his case using facts and figures that are very understandable to the layman. In fact, he maintains that the concept is deceptively simple, which makes forecasting over the very long term quite easy. This is a must read for any investor managing his or her own portfolio.
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Summary: Dent nails the current Dow pullback
Review: Dent predicts in his book in midsummer 98 a pullback in the dow to 7500-7800 - I would suggest that perhaps although a month late? he's right on target, accumulate your cash and be ready to reenter the market aggressively as we progress to somewhere around 21500-35000 on the Dow over the next 8 years...
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Summary: A fascinating forecast of the economy's coming decade
Review: Harry Dent has one of the most intriguing outlooks for the economy that one can find. His predictions will help anyone trying to figure out how to plan their own investments, figure out the best place to live and what industries to keep their eye on. A great read and a book that can make you money!
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Summary: Great explaination of what's happening with the economy
Review: Harry Dent's update on The Great Boom Ahead. As before, he predicts the boom will last to 2008, but he now forecasts a Dow as high as 35,000. Dent advises selling real estate and stocks in 2006 and putting the money into US Treasury bonds. Great advice if his predictions of deflation and a 15 year recession starting in 2008 are correct. The last chapter of the book "Seven Principles of Successful Investing" breaks down on one important point. Principle Six - find an objective financial advisor and pay him a fee of 1% of assets to tell you how to invest. At least 85% of advisors under perform the market so most investors would do better buying an index fund and saving the 1% advisory fee. Mr. Dent should be excused for this lapse since he discloses on page 304 that he runs a thriving business conducting seminars for financial advisors and institutional investors. We can't expect him to suggest his readers avoid doing business with his clients.
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Summary: A good follow up from his best book "The Great Boom Ahead"
Review: Once again Dent does a good job of explaining the working factors of basic economics in layman's terms. His view of the next 10 years is reasonable and well supported. Although I beleive that "The Great Boom Ahead" was much more specific and provided the data to support his assumptions, this book takes that information to the next level. I would recommend reading that book prior to this one. Once you've read it, you will surely order "Roaring 2000's"!
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Summary: Dent actually understands the Internet
Review: I have been a technology investor for over a decade, and done very well because I acutally understand technology and investing. I am glad to find an economist (I'm coming from the scientific side of this equation) who actually understands "gets it" from the economic side. Read this book, understands its fundamental concepts, and put it to work! I feel you will profit greatly(I know I am - heading for early retirement with a very nice income). I am giving this book to several of my friends.
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Summary: Well balanced, informative and a great read
Review: "Sex Drives the Economy" - bottom line of demographic analysis and should-have-been title of this entertaining book. Book is broken up into three sections - justification of the boom of next ten years, technology of the future and impacts, and real estate migration pattern predictions. Great Stuff - thoughtful and well written.
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Summary: Triple whammy circa 2010
Review: Dent anticipates the spending habits of the boomers to cause economy to boom to about 2009, then to decline for the subsequent 15 years, until the echo boomers revive it. Besides demography, there are two other dark clouds around that time frame: 1) The world's oil production peaks around 2008. There could be an energy price stress just like in the US in the early 1970s. 2) Moore's law of doubling computer capabilities may hit physical limitations around then (0.1 micron circuit lines). Computers will stop getting cheaper.
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