Rating: Summary: Probably the most effective book an analyst can own Review: Regardless of whether you specialize in a particular business skill, work in IT, are a consultant, or someone who wants to make a critical personal decision, this book will give you the necessary tools for decision making.It has three parts: (1) 50 pages on the basics of problem solving and decision making, (2) a collection of the fourteen tools that will make you an effective problem solver or decision maker, and (3) Next steps for refining your problem solving. Part 1 prepares you by getting you to think about thinking and providing insights to problem solving - sort of like a warm up before you engage in strenuous exercise. This is appropriate because as you work through the exercises associated with each tool you will be getting a strenuous mental workout - the author makes you think hard throughout the book. The tools given in this book are the foundation of any problem solving process. Although the author presents them in their most basic form, there are endless variations of them (and you will recognize many as you read through this book). Each tool is presented by giving some background, situations in which the particular tool is most effective, step-by-step procedures for using the tool and exercises. Answers to each exercise, including worked examples, are provided in the back of the book. The tools themselves are: (1) Problem restatement, (2) PROs-CONs-FIXes, (3) Divergent Thinking, (4) Sorting, Chronologies and Timelines, (5) Causal Flow Diagramming, (6) Matrices, (7) Decision/Event Trees, (8) Weighted Ranking, (9) Hypothesis Testing, (10) Devil's Advocacy, (11) Probability Tree, (12) Utility Tree, (13) Utility Matrix and (14) Advanced Utility Analysis. I cannot point to any one thing I like more than another in this excellent book. I've used virtually every tool listed at one time or another before reading this book. However, after going through the [not-so-easy] exercises provided I can assure you that the next time I have occasion to use any of the 14 tools I will do so with a great deal more skill and efficiency. Since I'm an IT consultant who is constantly involved in analysis and problem solving I keep this book nearby as a ready reference. It has proven it's value time after time and earns it my highest recommendation.
Rating: Summary: A worthwhile read Review: Some of the material reminds me of operations research techniques. Gives you something hang your hat on as you think about a problem.
Rating: Summary: A worthwhile read Review: Some of the material reminds me of operations research techniques. Gives you something hang your hat on as you think about a problem.
Rating: Summary: Mildly interesting. Horrible writing. Review: The books begins with a series of interesting stories on the psychology of decision-making. Once it gets into the Powerful Techniques it becomes trite, boring and difficult to read. Poorly explained ideas, and poorly worded exercise questions make the book unbearable. For example, throughout the book the author provides different stories describing different problems (say, that a bakery's bread is coming out of the oven inexplicably burned) and then it asks you to state the problem. The problem is that the bread is burned! But what the author actually *means* to ask (which is clear only upon reading the sample answers he provides) is "What are the potential causes of the problem?" These are two very different questions, both of which are important. Problem solving is an exercise in symbolic logic. A book that has its roots firmly planted in symbolic logic cannot afford to suffer from poor editing and word choice. Anyone that is reasonably adept in a technical field (engineering, software, et cetera) will find it interesting at first, but it quickly becomes boring and of questionable value. I give it one star - despite the fact that it may be valuable to some people - because I believe that authors who write poorly should not publish books on technical subjects.
Rating: Summary: I think the book is invaluable for decision makers. Review: The early part of this book explores the way people think and discusses the types of thinking errors made by decision makers and others. This discussion is excellent background for understanding your own thinking errors and provides a firm rationale for the fourteen techniques that follow (and make up the bulk of this book). I am a university professor and regularily recommend this book to my students.
Rating: Summary: I see it when I believe it Review: The human mind is a fascinating thing. It creates a sense of self; it makes fast decisions; it interprets the past; it imagines the future; and yet it is a deceiver of the smartest kind. Let's face it: seeing is not believing. It is the other way around. People usually see only the things they believe in. According to Morgan D. Jones, once we believe something, our favorite mode of operation is to jump to conclusions: "Failure to consider alternatives fully is the most common cause of flawed or incomplete analysis. In other words, we must learn how to keep an open mind - one of the most difficult things we human beings can do." Morgan D. Jones's book has two parts: (1) a short introduction into the way we habitually think, and the strengths and weaknesses of this process, (2) fourteen "tools" how to address the weaknesses and improve the process of thinking. It is a practical primer on decision-making, a hands-on manual how to structure one's analysis and keep an open mind for alternatives. In short, it tries to teach how to get away from a purely instinctual analysis of a problem to a structured analysis that will, hopefully, yield better results. Bottom-line: lots of value for your money, in particular if you are convinced that you are the most rational decision-maker in town (you'll buy an eye-opener).
Rating: Summary: A nice reference book...a cookbook for decision making Review: This book is a nice reference that captures the majority of problem solving techniques: a cookbook for decision making. The analytical techniques range from problem restatement to constructing an advanced utility matrix. It's useful in both daily life, business, and science. Thinker's Toolkit also contains very useful examples and exercises. They immediately demonstrate to the reader where common decision making falls short. On the down side, the book is a 'dry' read at times.
Rating: Summary: Disappointing Review: This is a disappointing book that does not live up to the expectations that the author lays out. It's humdrum, drab, and dull.
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