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Summary: Long View long on ideas
Review: New to the areas of forecasting and scenario building, I had fuzzy grasp of those concepts; not so after the first 28 pages of Peter Schwartz's, The Art of the Long View. Mr. Schwartz writes in an engaging and understandable fashion, and describes the application of long-term planning primarily in the context of for-profit enterprise, something to which I can relate and in which I am interested. Schwartz also conveys a sense of his authority in this arena, via tales of his 20-plus years of forecasting and scenario building.But just what is scenario building? To oversimplify, scenario building is the act of considering possible futures: Will the market grow, shrink or stay the same? What might happen to my/my organization in given circumstances? Will a new technology cause changes significant to my plans? What are the possible "ripple" effects of all of the previous? According to Schwartz, scenario building is more of an art than a science. While the need to investigate and account for previous trends and data are fundamental to the scenario building processes, the ability to be imaginative and creative and define reasonable and possible outcomes based on current and future events is also essential. Further, one who is developing quality scenarios needs to be aware of his/her political context: will your scenario grab the attention of management, or will it be tossed aside as too "far-out" or unpleasant to face? The chapter entitled "The World in 2005: Three Scenarios" looks only fourteen years in the future, based on the 1991 publication date. With this in mind, I have to ask: how far in advance can one reasonably forecast? A five-year forecast isn't really forecasting, it's more like interpreting. A ten-year forecast starts to get more interesting, but I feel it's little more than an extension of the five-year forecast. Looking further ahead, say 15, 20, 25, or 30 years, how accurately can one reliably forecast? In this book, I was looking for more discussion of longer-term planning, so I was slightly disappointed in this aspect. 30 years ago, few could have forecast the penetration and acceptance rates of the Internet, but it has "made all the difference" (so to speak) in the way first-world citizens (Americans especially) gather information, communicate, and perhaps most importantly, spend. With technological changes occurring so rapidly, I truly believe that forecasting longer than ten years in the future may be a futile activity. Though technology is only one so-called "scenario building block" of planning (others are environmental, political, social, and economic), no one can deny that it effects a disproportionate influence on the other building blocks; technology firms drive much of the economic prosperity on the mainland. Consequently, this technology-driven prosperity has had (and continues to have) an obvious and profound impact on the political and social realms. Political shifts are more likely to be minor in times of prosperity. Likewise, social problems such as homelessness and poverty are more likely to be attenuated. As we look ahead to a new century, are long-term plans and forecasts worth the paper they are printed on? Maybe, but maybe not. At first glance, the chapter entitled "Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager" appears only to analyze what effect the soon-to-be world masses of teenagers may have on the scenario building blocks. Though the chapter does do that, it more fundamentally explores the approach a planner may want to take when accounting for any new forces in change- identify the status quo, follow the logical extension, and consider the consequences. In the case of teenagers, Schwartz, in 1987, took notice of the huge worldwide group of preteens. The logical extension of this is that these children will grow older, and in short order. The consequence: a new force that will dramatically impact politics, society, technology, economics, and the environment. Now, think about the logical extension of this new group of teenagers: a new group of adults in a few years. These new adults will have children of their own, work for many years, then grow old and die. Keep in mind, however, that some forces may extend in ways that are not logical. This is where artistry and imagination become involved. Of particular value to the reader who will be forecasting and build scenarios is the appendix: "Steps to Developing Scenarios". This section includes an eight-step process for developing scenarios. I found this helpful, but trite. An entire chapter could be easily be devoted to each step. However, this is an introductory text, so trite coverage of topics that are actually deep and complex is acceptable. Contrary to my instincts (though he is right), Schwartz stresses that it is important to remember that the goal of long-term forecasting and planning is not necessarily accuracy. More precisely, the goal should be to identify broad future trends and to account for them. Likewise, the TV weatherman might not be able to accurately forecast that it will drizzle in Honolulu tonight, but he should be able to see the hurricane looming offshore. Also, I find it difficult to develop more than one scenario. It is my natural inclination to feel that there is one future- mine, the way I see it. If I am forecasting good times ahead, it feels excruciating to consider alternative futures. I would have appreciated a thorough discussion on overcoming this kind mental block. Overall, I enjoyed this book. Schwartz describes complex ideas in an enjoyable, relatable way using layman's terms. However, I strongly feel this book is due for a revision- much has changed since the 1991 copyright date. I'll be sure to read the next edition. Christopher Jacoby Skylark888@hotmail.com
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Summary: A great primer for future thinking and crisis management
Review: Overall this book lays a great foundation for people who are interested in learning the art of strategic planning, but I also felt it was an excellent review for myself. The real life stories helped make Peter's methodology believable. Although you don't hear about the errors in future planning (which didn't matter in understanding the point), it would have helped to have seen how he learned from his mistakes (which we all do). A key area the book helps cover is crisis planning and management. I can only imagine how this could have helped the executive teams at Ford and Firestone avoid the marketing disaster they're experiencing right now. I would recommend every crisis management and public relations team own and read this book.
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Summary: A good book for policy planning
Review: Peter Schwartz, a futurist, predicts what will happen in 2005 by developing future scenarios. As the consultant of the Shell Group of companies in London, Peter Schwartz developed future strategies for them and successfully reduced the uncertainties of their problems during oil crises. In this book, he tries to cover the possible factors that influence future scenarios. These factors include energy, political factors, technology explosions, global pragmatism, demographic problems, environmental concerns, and global information economy. The author discusses the why and how those factors above will influence future development.
The most interesting point to me is technology as a driving force of future development. This is because Peter Schwartz sounds like a technology determinist. Many scholars, including Peter Schwartz, agree that technology or information technology is a crucial element in both economic and social aspects. Accordingly, Peter Schwartz suggests that technological change might alone be strong enough to guarantee global prosperity. Moreover, Peter Schwartz also addresses the interaction of technology and other factors such as economic factors. For example, he argues that the uncertainty of investments in technology will hamper the technological infrastructure and lead to a ¡§change with process¡¨ scenario.
Both Peter Schwartz and Alvin Toffler share the same point of view about the importance of China in the future. Peter Schwartz foresees that the population is a crucial driving force, and the advantage of China is its rapid growth of population, which will push up energy demand. I agree with his idea and I think the political situation will be changed because of the prosperity of China. This leads to another factor, the military uncertainty that Peter Schwartz mentions. Since economic power is correlated to military power, it is realizable that Peter Schwartz predicts the military factor will be an important element, which is another uncertain factor nowadays.
Drawing on his rich practical experience, Peter Schwartz explains his ideas of future scenarios thoroughly. By looking at the factors that he points out, I find that the development of the future scenario is a reasonable logical process that uses clues to predict possible future outcomes. This book also provides a list of scenario development steps, which is very useful to students start their first future planning.
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Summary: Book Review: THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW by Peter Schwartz
Review: Reading this book couldn't be more timely at this point in my life. Like most everyone else in Hawaii, it is a struggle to live in a place that most people consider paradise, where the cost of living is much higher than the average income earned by most people who live here. Not only is it important to look at where you've been and where you are and where you want to be, but it also equally important to consider the consequences of possible futures as a means of making better, more educated decisions about the future. Peter Schwartz's THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW illustrates this process of perception and scenarios in the business context. But I connected with this book on a personal level. Where Schwartz's primary motivation for writing this book was to provide tools for developing a strategic vision with your business, my understanding of his book was that it offers a promising option in developing the same kind of vision with my own life! Just as THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW helped me to see how I could apply the techniques used in futures forecasting and scenario-building to my personal life, it also moved me outside of my personal microcosm to extend to a more global perspective. In his examples, Schwartz references historical events as points to be taken into consideration, thereby offering a broader world view of the consequences of implementing these useful techniques. Some of the practical suggestions Schwartz uses in identifying areas to pay attention to are as simple as: 1. Looking at trends in science and technology as one of the most important drivers of future events. 2. Seeing television as a source about what people believe is happening as it suggests what people are perceiving, and; looking for signs in television programs that indicate that change is forthcoming. 3. Listening to music as it shows what people are feeling; that it is a window onto freedom in the future. 4. Considering the fringes or areas not yet legitimized but not utterly rejected by the "center" of acceptance. Looking at the fringes raises questions about the ethics and values in a world that may come into being. Schwartz also recommends useful tactics in collecting information. Among those include sources such as conventional thinkers and the emphasis on personal relationships with people who can nudge you to look at something in a new way; sources of surprise which offer new perceptions that can eventually become your own. He offers an assortment of filters in the form of publications including regular sources for mainstream and fringe illumination, and he also considers traveling as the best way to immerse yourself in unfamiliarity. Through out his book Schwartz emphasizes the need to break through our own preconceptions without opening ourselves up completely to new (unrealistic) ideas. With technology as one of the major driving force of change, I was also particularly intrigued by Schwartz's analysis of the "global teenager." As a mother of two young sons, I am particularly concerned about the effect of the media and other electronic forms of entertainment. Through Paul Hawken, Schwartz points out the economic fears and hopes surrounding their generation, as they are "thrust into a world of tremendous uncertainty." Since Hawken tends to see a more pessimistic future for our youth, Schwartz sees his view as an opportunity to look at what we can do to prevent such a horrible fate for our youth. As a parent of these global teenagers (to be) I would have to vehemently disagree with Hawken's concerns that our children have such a bleak fate ahead of them. He said that may be either one of two extremes, either uneducated, unemployed, and are destined to become "hopeless, street criminals" or the fear of such a fate might possibly motivate our youth to become more ambitious and prosperous. Counter to Hawken, Schwartz offers optimism stating that the "accelerating power of education via the new technology" may possibly be the solution to getting past this potential problem. He also offers suggestions for business opportunities that target our global teen and a glimpse of their possible political outlook as it impacts society and even the global economy. It wasn't until the end of the book that I can understand the probable motivation in Schwartz's more optimistic take regarding the future of our youngsters, as he too, is a new father. In addition to his user's guide on How to Hold a Strategic Conversation and 8 Steps to Developing Scenarios (which can find practical application in most contexts, including business and personal scenario-building), I also found his analysis of three possible future scenarios quite enlightening. Each represents three of the four models in futures forecasting that were discussed in class (conserver, continued growth, and transformational models.) Schwartz is able to illustrate these future scenarios, each one of them capable of becoming reality, because he presents them in realistic, tangible, concepts and events. THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW is a highly recommended read for those who aren't afraid (and helps to dispel fears)of the uncertainty and unpredictability the future holds. Rather than be held back by the fear of the unknown, one can see and appreciate the usefulness in scenarios as a process by which possibilities can be planned and prepared for, with an eye for the opportunities or surprises that present themselves along the paths we tread in life.
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Summary: The review of "The Art of the Long View".
Review: Review of gThe Art of Long Viewh
This book, gThe Art of Long Viewh, is a very powerful but easy to understand book that helps people who are learning about future forecasting and scenario writing not just to learn about it but also to be confident of the significance of the future forecasting. I am sure this book helps people a lot from beginners to professors, especially beginners like me who has hardly think about this matter before and have little knowledge or information about it.
This book made the meaning of the future forecasting and scenario writing tangible and significant which was intangible and insignificant before I read it. It tells the importance of seeing the future in a long view, making alternatives in the future, and therefore enables us to be aware of the uncertainties we have in reality and think about what we can do, deal with it, and to envision our own future by making alternatives and making decisions for future that best fit your vision of the future realistically.
This book familiarize you with the processes of future forecasting, scenario writing, and the significance of them step by step by giving authorfs own experiences written in a very logical and persuasive way, which gives reality and reliability to it. This book helps people reducing uncertainty and giving hopes instead in the future.
However, one point that I would like to address as a critique is that the stories or facts which were introduced in the book were mostly successful ones not ones which ended up in failure, which I can consider as one-sided. And I also think it would be good if it includes unsuccessful models not just successful ones to compare with.
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Summary: Master the secrets of successful planning
Review: Schwartz's book is the best title I've come across to help illuminate the power of strategic planning
and its role in shaping corporate direction, web development, small business and personal planning. The book outlines a set of principles, or an attitude, one can adopt for making sense out of our information environment, and improving decisionmaking.
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Summary: it's a pretty good book
Review: The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz is an excellent book that looks into the creation of scenarios in planning for the future. He describes how scenarios become strategies. This extends from the use of knowledge and intuition of the external business environment as well as the internal vision, culture, and competencies of the organization itself. Schwartz describes for a future developer to communicate, debate, and update all scenarios and the organization so that they coevolve. His examples from one of his scenarios (Smith & Hawken Story) proved that there are only two types of factors involved: the ones that you can count on and the ones that are more uncertain. He describes how one must be flexible in perspective and how to understand that there are other possibilities, even if one is certain of what may or may not happen in the future. He gives reasons into examining five categories of driving forces of the future, which include society, technology, economics, politics, and the natural environment. He is a genius to examine the "global teen" for they will be a part of every scenario planning process that futurists are preparing for. He gives way to understanding that technology and information will be the forefront of many of the scenarios being created. He recalls that scenarios do not predict the future, "[scenario planning] allow us to think that any one of them [scenarios] might take place"(p.195). When planning scenarios one must take into account whether or not "New Empires, a Market World, [and/or] Change without Progress" are involved. He concludes the book with explaining that scenario planning is an ongoing process and that it is knowledgeable that a person returns to the beginning only to better understand the past and future. I recommend this book to anyone who wants to examine their own planning process and future; whether it be for business, economic growth, social growth, or personal need Schwartz's plan is the perfect user's guide to highlight development in any area.
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Summary: An Art, Not a Science
Review: The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz This book is a constant reminder of the timeliness of perceptions and how even the best futurists can miss key, what Schwartz calls, "critical uncertainties," things that have large impacts but can not be known. Written in 1991, the view is easy to second guess now and missing things such as the crash in Japan and the Asian flu, makes Schwartz look like he was victim of what he calls "mind-sets", and describes as "the attitudes about every situation in our lives." Schwartz has the courage to put his forecasts in the form of "scenarios " in print so that we can all judge them over time. He wraps himself and his profession in a protective coating by admitting and insisting that scenarios are just possibilities and should be created in threes so that most eventualities can be prepared for. The book culminates with 3 scenarios for 2005. The only relatively positive one, the "Market World" has valid generalities but falls seriously short on specifics. It is by far the closest to what is actually happening. If it caused you to bet on Japan in 1991, you may have some major problems with Peter Schwartz. Sometimes even the best might leave out large "critical uncertainties" or mistake them for "predetermined events." Schwartz warns about mind-sets coloring perceptions and his mind-set apparently prevented him from asking what would happen if the US could get its debt under control and even, what if the debt was not as important as we thought it was. Changing the deficit did not involve "drastic cuts in defense spending and Social Security." The deficit is practically never mentioned anymore. It was not a "predetermined element," something that can not change. As it appears now, his scenario of the US demise and Asia's, particularly Japan's, ascension was at least premature if not completely off. Points must be deducted for not one of his scenes having the US retain and even enlarge its position in the world as has happened. He claims to have predicted the end of the Cold War but his projections for what that would create have also been quite off. Maybe his preconceptions prevented him from speculation on what a lessening of strategic responsibilities and resurgence of American leadership, as happened at the end of the previous two major wars, would allow. He touts the "challenge and response" plot as Japan's way of rising to economic predominance but fails to see that the Japanese used this internally but for their external dealings they played more the zero sum "winners and losers" plot with the US which their propped up financial systems could not support for the "infinite possibilities" scenario they were in. Another miss, "By the next century, the rest of the industrialized world will have a superpowered telephone system; compared with them, the American system will feel as antiquated as the telegraph is today." He missed the Internet and America's leadership of it. So now, the world is quite different from what he was looking at just 9 years ago. Failures aside, the Art is an art and is defined only by a set of disciplines on which Schwartz has a strong grip. Training yourself to see the view requires a commitment to a way of thought that will change you basically as a person. The introspection necessary to "determine your outlook" will inevitably lead to a wider view and his encouragement to accept other outlooks, even the "fringes" can only help one to expand. "New knowledge develops at the fringes...The structure, the power, and the institutional inertia all tend to inhibit innovative thinkers and drive them to the fringes." Schwartz has moved in the highest circles of power. He name drops, in this diary of anecdotal stories, with the best of them and often exhibits conservative bents such as his references to Dutch Royal Shell and the Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan saureses but, despite his connections to the power structure he is quite mystic-newagey in many other references. One of his partners is Stewart Brand, originator of The Whole Earth Catalogue and its progeny, which he sites frequently. He also mentions things like Gaia, the Esalen Center, the Land Institute, the Biosphere experiment in Tucson, the effects of music including the Beatles and Peter Gabriel, and his friend Jon McIntire, the manager of the Grateful Dead. His "Change without Progress" scenario for 2005 is right out of Neuromancer by William Gibson whom he credits with influencing his thinking. He wraps all this ethereal messaging around a sound framework of concrete methods for building a scenario. Start with figuring out what you want out of your product. Do the research. This includes consulting the fringes and filtering overwhelming amounts of information. Determine key factors such as predetermined elements, things like demographics, things you know, and driving forces, what make things move, politics, economics, technology, etc. Read the book for this structure and enjoy the stories for their entertainment value. It is fun to see the best make mistakes. We all love catching the referee blowing a call when it doesn't wreck the game. His mistake did not prevent America from moving into its greatest prosperity and some of them may have helped create our successes. Forecasts with gloomy futures can be a great way of warning and preventing those times from coming. Maybe they are driving forces.
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Summary: The Art of the Long View Review
Review: The Art of the Long View provides scenario planning information and implication. The author, Peter Schwartz, is a builder and user of scenarios. He draws from his experiences at SRI International, Royal Dutch/Shell, Smith & Hawken, and Global Business Network. He intertwines his observations and lessons with the actual process of scenario planning. He tackles general ideals and concepts with specific examples in an effort to illustrate both the process and mindset needed for effective scenario planning. The clarity and organization of this book allow the reader to easily grasp the concepts of scenario planning. He highlights the consequential role that scenario planning plays in the business environment. It is a user-friendly book which provides steps, questions to ask, arenas to explore, and various forms of obtaining and interpreting information. I highly recommend this book to those beginning in the forecasting/ scenario planning field, for it ties the meaningfulness of the process to various fields. It also serves as a reliable resource for professional planners by providing perspectives that may be overlooked in the scenario process. It begins with the simple sentence; "This book is about freedom." That statement held true throughout the book. In providing steps to developing scenarios, looking at company's situations, looking at the world in 2005, a solid index and endnotes, and even an epilogue to his newborn son, Schwartz provides a framework for exploration of the infinite possibilities of the future. He incorporates creativity and methodology, with the structure of real life stories and the tools to make the connection.
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Summary: I discovered an exceptional man
Review: The book is an interesting introduction to the art of anticipating the future. I liked the way he emphasizes the contribution of Pierre Wack in his thinking and the stories that he used to illustrate his arguments. The book ended too early without going through practical issues facing those who have to anticipate the future.Peter becomes a real poet each time he writes to his son.I rate the book 3 stars although I discovered an excellent man. Pierre Achard
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