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Summary: The Long View: Macro and Micro Perspectives
Review: Chairman of the Global Business Network, Schwartz is one of the world's leading futurists. As also indicated in the more recently published The Long Boom, his writing is as clear and crisp as his thinking. Schwartz's comments and suggestions are anchored in extensive real-world experience. His objective is to explain the process of what he calls "scenario-building" which enables managers to "invent and then consider, in depth, several varied stories of equally plausible futures" so that they can make (in his words) "strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it -- and influential in it -- if you have thought seriously about scenarios."Managers of companies (regardless of size or nature) are already aware of constant change within their competitive marketplace. Recent developments, notably use of the Internet to expedite globalization, suggest that change will occur progressively faster and have progressively greater impact, both positive and negative. Meanwhile, for obvious reasons, managers of companies face daily situations and circumstances which require immediate attention and, more often than not, they must quickly make decisions which have profound implications. As a result managers find it very difficult to see "the larger picture", to maintain a "long-term perspective." Schwartz suggests how. Like Drucker, he avoids making predictions. Rather, he helps his reader to formulate the degree of probability of certain events yet to occur...and then to prepare accordingly.
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Summary: A vital tool
Review: Different experimental techniques can be used to gather both known and unknown information as human beings take a long view in a world of uncertainty. Peter Schwartz, President of the Global Business Network , in his book "The Art of the Long View" opens up gateways that are applicable as one attempts to forecast and get prepared to social or technological upheavals that appear suddenly and surprisingly. The content of the book, from the Introduction to the end is a journey from the present to the future where the Author is acting as a Tour Guide. There is so much information but nevertheless, the simplicity is there thus making the reader go on and on until the end. How the Author divide up the contents into different parts on how to build scenarios anywhere and by anybody from all walks of life, is a marvelous job. There are so many interesting things about The Art of the Long View and one of them is how Schwartz, braided together his suggestions with his extensive real-world experience. I like how he brings out the stories to emphasize each and every point he makes and each story has got its own meaning. Throughout the whole book, the Author always refer to his experiences with the Shell oil company which is of course an appropriate example for anyone attempting to paint a picture of the future. No doubt, Schwartz's major goal is to explain in his own words, using his own findings on the process of what he calls "Scenario-Building". The process as we go step by step following his guide, becomes more easier enabling decision makers, future managers and the individual in general to sit back and realize that the future holds equality for everyone who wishes to do so. Talking about how to create scenario building blocks, Schwartz is presenting all the five categories needed to build scenario, namely the Society, Technology, Economic, Politics, and Environment. In real life, many decision makers would try to build scenarios and usually consider only two or three categories. They usually choose two or three and sometimes the first four categories but leave out Environment. The Art of the Long View, Schwartz gives a more complete work and each category adds to the whole puzzle. Leaving out one of these categories would leave the puzzle unsolved which neither the manager nor any decision making body could afford to come across especially in these days where technology and education is at its most highest level. No matter what kind of future one is looking and planning for, Schwartz insists on one of the important key elements of building scenarios when he talks about Information-Hunting And-Gathering. I particularly like what he offers as Targets or what the scenario builder should look for. He is suggesting that scenarios researchers should train themselves to look at the world as horses do because new knowledge develops at the fringes. He is suggesting that in order to get prepared to any future changes and upheavals, one should go out to the outer edge where there are lots and lots of choices. One of the vital elements the Author is suggesting for scenarios building is to ask questions like what the founders of Smith & Hawken tool asked, for example, "Should we open a small business." The answers according to Schwartz are all forces that are helping to drive and build the scenarios bringing out the ability of people to build the future and probably to foresee what will happen. As the saying goes-Hope for the best but prepare for the worst-and so as we journey from the present to the future, we may be able to plan for the future by recognizing and adapt to changing aspects of our present. And to do that according to Schwartz, one has got to be ready for it. After reading "The Art of the Long View," I now come to realize why some foundations of governments or even organizations do break down. Probably Managers, Prime Ministers, and Leaders of these countries, and organizations need to sit down and plan well ahead before drawing up plans. But above all the Author is talking with confidence and confidence is needed when someone is looking for the future and at the same time considering the uncertainties the future holds. Finally I definitely recommend anyone who may be interested in becoming a manager, decision maker, or even everyone to read "The Art of the Long View." This could be the first step to foresee surprising events in order to avoid having dangerous endings when upheavals are on the track.
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Summary: A good book for future planning
Review: E- Book review
The art of long view
Peter Schwartz, a futurist, predicts what will happen in 2005 by developing future scenarios. As the consultant of the Shell Group of companies in London, Peter Schwartz developed future strategies for them and successfully reduced the uncertainties of their problems during oil crises. In this book, he tries to cover the possible factors that influence future scenarios. These factors include energy, political factors, technology explosions, global pragmatism, demographic problems, environmental concerns, and global information economy. The author discusses the why and how those factors above will influence future development.
The most interesting point to me is technology as a driving force of future development. This is because Peter Schwartz sounds like a technology determinist. Many scholars agree that technology or information technology is a crucial element in both economic and social aspects. Accordingly, Peter Schwartz suggests that technological change might alone be strong enough to guarantee global prosperity. Moreover, Peter Schwartz also addresses the interaction of technology and other factors such as economic factors. For example, he argues that the uncertainty of investments in technology will hamper the technological infrastructure and lead to a "change with process" scenario.
Both Peter Schwartz and Alvin Toffler share the same point of view about the importance of China in the future. Peter Schwartz foresees that the population is a crucial driving force, and the advantage of China is its rapid growth of population, which will push up energy demand. I agree with his idea and I think the political situation will be changed because of the prosperity of China. This leads to another factor, the military uncertainty that Peter Schwartz mentions. Since economic power is correlated to military power, it is realizable that Peter Schwartz predicts the military factor will be an important element, which is another uncertain factor nowadays.
Drawing on his rich practical experience, Peter Schwartz explains his ideas of future scenarios thoroughly. By looking at the factors that he points out, I find that the development of the future scenario is a reasoning logic process that uses clues to predict possible future outcomes. This book also provides a list of scenario development steps, which is very useful to students start their first future planning.
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Summary: Question your strategic assumptions.
Review: Every manager should be used to questioning the assumptions that underlie his current business-- it's an essential skill both in order to avoid disaster and to take advantage of emerging opportunities. Schwartz's book provides an excellent method for formalizing that process within the organization. The case studies largely support his point and make for interesting reading. The appendix with the scenario planning steps and the selected bibliography are also particularly useful.
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Summary: The Art of the Long View -Fear Less, Anticipate More
Review: For those worried about the future, empowerment replaces any fears by book's end of The Art of the Long View. Author Peter Schwartz provides basic principles the average person, entrepreneur or Fortune 500 CEO can use to plan for the future both personally and professionally. He presents the scenario concept, the art of creating different themes of the future to help individuals better prepare and anticipate as it happens. Many would agree it's an idea whose time has come in a world constantly in change by political, social, economic and technological elements. Through his case studies of Royal/Dutch Shell and Smith & Hawkin, the author takes us through the scenario planning stages, the actual outcomes and the company results. Surveys, research, and evaluations of possible forecasts prepared the companies to deal with the future head on. Profitability and security were the results. In The Art of the Long View, Schwartz outlines step-by-step, how individuals can develop their own forecasting techniques as they journey in what he calls an uncertain world. Schwartz acknowledges that an uncertain future becomes no less certain but allows for more anticipated events and fewer surprises. By developing three scenarios: status quo, worse and different, a broader view of how the future may look is presented and the elements of dealing with that future are written out. Many of the issues brought up in this book, even forecasts have occurred or are happening. Schwartz forecasts industrialized countries would become increasingly upset with their trading partners. "Campaigns for buy American, French or Korean raise the level of friction and anger"(p. 173). Currently we see this in autoworkers and clothing manufacturers. Media coverage of the issues like Nike's child-slave labor conditions in Thailand, the Kathie Lee Gifford clothing line fiasco to the Korea's kim chee war with Japan come to mind. Another reflection Schwartz makes about the economy is also happening. His comment about the fashion industry's lack of foresight into planning and forecasting resulting in "New shopping malls have provided an oversupply of look alike stores" (p. 225). In addition, the nature of the market has changed in recent decades where women's busy schedules mean less time and income for clothes shopping, he says. Today, this is exactly what's been reflected on the stock market, as members like the GAP, Banana Republic and Tommy Hilfiger shares have dropped considerably. Wet Seal, the women's clothing retailer valued as high as $49 a share, has dropped under $12. One forecast difficult to absorb was the global teenage scenario. It's scary to think that the driving force behind the world will be the teenage population. Harder to swallow is worldwide this will be the dominant population. It's hard to imagine teenagers but reality soon sets in as the marketplace caters to such a strong teenage population. Everything from fastfood to malls and music target the teenager as its market. There is not much in this book to be critical of except for the epilogue dedicated to his son. It was tactless in some respects---out of place for the depth and organization of the book. Nothing was wrong with the content minus the letter format to Ben. It was not appropriate and seemed out of character. Overall, The Art of the Long View is an intriguing book that opens a reader's eyes to forecasting and futures planning. Schwartz' scenario techniques recommended in his guide are simple and easy for anyone to implement. Likewise, he has proven through his work experience with companies and own forecasting that the technique really works. The idea of planning and preparing for the oddities of the future makes sense. Having some sense of anticipation, some sense of security. Would that be ideal?
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Summary: Take your instinct to a higher level!
Review: I belief that I possess a strong and reliable gut-feel or instinct. I also have a good knack for organising and quantifying information to help me in the process of decision making. Together these factors which have helped me through many decisions, from moderately difficult to life changing decisions, such as immigration. But Peter Schwartz's book takes planning for the future to a much higher level. Subtitled "Planning for the future in an uncertain world", in "The art of the long view" Schwartz illustrates his own successful recipe for practical futurism. He outlines a "scenario" approach for developing a strategic vision. This approach involves developing 2 - 4 varying scenarios. The approach is based upon a series of steps for developing each scenario, preparing for the likelihood each scenario, and recognising early on which one (or more than one) scenario is actually eventuating, so that appropriate steps can be taken. Although the proposed scenarios are to be presented in a narrative form (which may make some people uncomfortable), the "Long View" approach is quite methodical (though it could perhaps have been presented in a more organised fashion). Apart from that, the approach holds much advantage. I expected a full-on business book glorifying globalisation, knowing that Schwartz had been involved with several multi-nationals like the Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company. I was therefore pleasantly surprised with Schwartz's environmental leanings and his inclusion of the ecological impacts of decisions in scenarios. Taking into account the success rate of teams in which Schwartz has been involved with in the past, the scenario developing strategy definitely seems to me to have much merit. (It would be interesting to see how his predictions for 2005 turns out - in 3 years time). Now if we could only get politicians to read this book and look past their re-election windows. Highly recommended.
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Summary: Dull
Review: I was expecting insight, instead I got rambling ideas about how one person went about looking at the future.
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Summary: Benefits from Future Uncertainties
Review: If you liked Arie de Geus' book, The Living Company, or The Fifth Discipline by Peter Senge, you will find The Art of the Long View a related, helpful exploration of how to go beyond "forecasting" the future to "preparing" for it. This book is about using future scenarios to make better current decisions. As Peter Schwartz alerts us, "Scenarios are not predictions." They represent instead, possible alternative dimensions of the future that reflect the driving forces of that future. This is particularly valuable now because unpredictability is growing. "Unpredictability in every field is the result of the conquest of the whole of the present world by scientific power." You are encouraged to use these scenarios as simulations to help you think more concretely and accurately about what might come next. Then you choose decisions and actions that leave you better off than the alternatives, regardless of the future scenario that occurs. Such scenarios are like projected script plots for a movie, and help us develop "memories of the future" (as David Ingvar noted) that make thinking about the future more practical for us. Generally one scenario will be better than the current direction, one worse, and one different. Perhaps the greatest benefit of these practices is that "scenarios are . . . the most powerful vehicles . . . for challenging our 'mental models' about the world and lifting the 'blinders' that limit our creativity and resourcefulness." So you can think of scenarios as a stallbusting technique for overcoming the miscommunication, misconception, and disbelief stalls, as well. One of the book's great strengths is that it takes you through the process by which the author discovered these qualities about how to use scenarios. He begins with his exposure to the kind of scenarios that Herman Kahn was using for government policy development in the 1970s. You then meet Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch/Shell who used scenarios to help the company successfully prepare for the big price increases in oil during the Arab Oil Embargo. Mr. Schwartz later replace Mr. Wack in that job and describes his experiences with later scenarios. One example that I found particularly interesting was thinking about putting in a new natural gas field offshore from Norway. Whether it made sense or not depended on whether the U.S.S.R. would continue to be an enemy of Western Europe and not ship its own low-cost natural gas to that market. That work led to understanding that the U.S.S.R. probably would fall many years before that occurred. Another powerful section was on the global culture of teenagers as a precursor to other changes. You will get plenty of concepts in the book to use to create your own scenarios and to make better decisions. You can get ideas from looking at themes like revolution, cycles, winners and losers, challenge and response, infinite possibilities, and the perspective of your own generation. He has three scenarios for the year 2005 to give you a sense of what scenarios can look like. These focus about a market-driven world, a world without progress, and new geographical political alignments. There is a user's guide with eight requirements for holding strategic conversations built around these scenarios. That is followed by an appendix with an 8 step process for developing the scenarios to use. I thought that his section on "Information-Hunting and -Gathering" was especially good in helping you to spot the early sources of new future directions. These can come from technology trends, music, fringe areas, perceptions shaping events, remarkable people, sources of existing surprises, filters (such as magazines), and new networks. Although I have never seen anyone conduct scenario planning exercises, I felt confident that I could do so after reading this book. I think you can, too. Mr. Schwartz is an open, likeable person, and you will enjoy his writing style. He knows how to tell a good story that will stimulate your imagination. After you have finished understanding the book and applying it to your business, I suggest that you take a look at your personal life in the same way. What are you assuming about your family, your health, and your future work-related circumstances? What are an appropriate range of alternative scenarios? What decisions do you have to make that are affected by these scenarios? Which decisions leave you much better off? Asking and answering these questions will provide the greatest possible benefit from developing your new skills in this area. Be more thoughtful and purposeful using scenarios . . . and more happy endings will follow in reality!
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Summary: Liberate your insights!
Review: In "The Art of the Long View," Peter Schwartz, one of the world leading futurists introduces the concepts of scenario planning. He argues that scenario thinking is an art not a science, and people in general has an innate ability to build scenarios, and to foresee the future. From the book, the readers can learn how to build their own future scenarios. They are neither predictions nor mere extrapolations of the present trends. They help us to know the shape of unfolding future reality. A good scenario must have surprised elements with power to break the stereotypes. The general principles of scenario planning are neatly summarized in the appendix, "Steps to Developing Scenarios." They compose of: Step One: identify the focal issue or decision; Step Two: list the key Micro-Factors relevant to that issue or decision; Step Three: list the key Macro-Driving Forces; Step Four: cross-rank Factors and Forces in terms of importance and uncertainty; Step Five: select Scenario Logic; Step Six: flesh out Scenarios; Step Seven: identify Probable Implications; and Step Eight: select Leading Indicators and Signposts. However, the order of the steps may be muddled in some cases. For me, as a former employee of Shell in Cambodia, it is an eye-opening reading. I wish I had read this book before I started to develop the promotion plan for Shell Cambodia. The great pleasure of adopting a constant futurist's perspective on things is that it forces you to think of different possible ways things may happen and have at hand the answers to the "what if...?" questions either plausible or implausible. Then comes a mindshift that leads to the change in behavior in managing organization, let it be global corporation like Royal Dutch Shell or AT&T and small family businesses. It is an excellent read if you want to liberate your insights from your existing "mental map".
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Summary: How Can You Successfully See a Future Through Scenario?
Review: In The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz, a president of Global Business Network, prospect the scenario that illustrates assumptions as real-life plans in the future. He also shows how the scenario has to thoroughly be thought for managers and business readers, and also for individuals. Schwartz is giving you an example of Royal Dutch/Shell company survived in energy crisis after the war in the Middle East in 1973 since they had prepared for the change by setting up scenarios about the future. In order to create a future scenario successfully, planners have to see through a world with many possible filters from both inside and outside of the society. It is because your aspects now may be overlapped and recombined in unexpected ways in a future, and you have to be flexible to deal with the agendas in this situation. Schwartz shows the indispensable key components in scenario- driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties- for the exploration in a future. Interestingly, in the process of exploring, you must find yourself moving through the following steps from refining a decision, performing more research, seeking out more key elements, trying on new plots, and to rehearsing the implications. As a conclusion, the author believes that people in the world have to be capable to perceive alternative future environments. Because of the fact that creating scenarios can help them to take a view in an uncertain world of a future, or it will also guide individuals to make a better decisions in their own lives.
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