Rating: 
Summary: Pleasant, provacative, and easily read.
Review: There should be only two criteria for the quality of a book: whether it provokes thought, and how easy it is to read. The Art of the Long View is both an easy read, and provocative. It coerces, challenges, and invites you to examine your own perceptual barriers to envisioning the future. It provides a slew of anecdotes, stories, and scenarios that illustrate approaches to future studies, and each person's inherent connection to the field. Finally, it can be thoroughly read in one or two days.
Every human has an innate desire, and skill, at perceiving the future. This pervasive theme is brought up continually, every instance highlighting ways in which the people of the world are often caught unawares of future that, while adjacent to us, we blind ourselves from. Interspersed among Schwartz's easy, conversational style are hard and fast pointers that will probably help even the more detail-oriented readers to figure out what the author is talking about when he talks about the "long view". Additionally, Schwartz discusses ways in which we can increase our capacity to open our perceptions. Some people are born to be brilliant forecasters, but everyone can learn, he contends.
Pragmatic creativity is perhaps the keystone to the long view, with a curiously settling notion that this optimism is central to any successful person, if not forecaster or businessman. The development of this creativity is perhaps one of the other things I found particularly exciting in Long View. When we increase the diversity of our knowledge, we can learn to develop these scenarios that encourage the decisive, robust action that Schwartz seems to genuinely feel will make our world a better place. His notions of optimistic future scenario preparedness, as well as my own enjoyable experience with this book, prompt me to recommend it without reservation.
Rating: 
Summary: E-BookReview
Review: "The Art of the Long View": Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World is a great book. The author, Schwartz embodies the principles in the book that can help people who are seeking a vision to start the long-view planning to clarify the thoughts and to facilitate the scenario-building process.Schwartz describes how scenario is developed and applied and he shares many his experiences by providing concrete examples about his leading scenario-building team and the scenarios that they made such as for the Smith & Hawken and the Royal Dutch / Shell. He explains the process of the "scenario-building" which enables managers to invent and then consider, in depth, various stories of equally plausible future so they can make strategic decisions that will be ready for all plausible futures. He suggests that both external and internal elements need cautious consideration in order to conduct the long-term planning for organizations to face the plausible futures. Under the practical standpoint, Schwartz presents a systematic way of strategic thinking through explicit instances. The very first step is effectively using "what if" stories, and next the great deal research is essentially needed. He exposes many resources for readers that particularly in areas that one might not ordinarily explore. And then he states how to conduct the scenario by recognizing the "driving forces" and composing the "plots". Furthermore, in the annex section, the "user's guide" precisely guides managers how to hold a strategic conversation with their team members or subordinates. Moreover, the appendix consolidates the steps about how to develop a scenario progressively. In my opinion, certainly, this is a nice and useful book for scenario planning and future forecasting.
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Summary: The Art of the Long View: to belive in an alternative furure
Review: ... "Hope for the best. Get ready for the worst!!!"
The author is unknown. In his book " The Art of the Long View" Peter Schwartz very convincingly demonstrates the necessity of future planning. His main point is that "Art" can and must be trained. All his evidence has been gathered from his many years work experience by working as a consultant for Royal Dutch/Shell Company and later as a director for the Global Business Network organization.
The book starts with Schwartz's analyses of the scenario building, for the Smith & Hawken company in the late seventies when the company faced a dilemma of how to plan business: as a retail company or a mail order company. All points he brings out especially interesting for me because at present I am working in retail company myself. The author suggests that the best way to plan for the future is to try to build scenarios - specially constructed stories about the future, where each scenario represents a distinct, plausible world. He analyzes that scenario "often (but not always) seems to fall into three groups: more of the same, but better; worse (decay and depression); and different but better (fundamental changes) (p.19)". Through the book, however, the author continually emphasizes that reality will most likely be the combination of all three scenarios. The "Art" is to make yourself believe in an alternative future and to think about what can be done differently now either to prevent it from happening later or the opposite - to make something happen. In order not to become overwhelmed with different prognoses of the future, I have found Schwartz's example of understanding what optimism is especially important: "having enough challenges to give life meaning" (p.74). In other words, only by learning to overcome difficulties people can become successful and can fulfill their abilities.
Through the book the author analyzes the economic problems in the seventies such as the oil crisis and challenges that Royal Dutch/Shell Company had to face at that time. He stated that the scenario method considerably helped the company with strategy planning. However, the Schwartz argues that the main key to success has been the ability of managers to come to mutual understanding of the problems that the company could face in the future. Schwartz underlines the idea that the success of decision-making process depends on the manager's ability to see the big picture and to apply it to the specific problem. Thus, the main part of the scenario building process is gathering information. He introduces readers to such criteria as driven forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties as the key factors to scenario building. He states that all these elements have an enormous influence on economical, political, technological, environmental situation in the world and on the society as a whole. Therefore, the author states that keeping track of new developments in science and technology should be the focus of the futurist's research.
Schwartz made an important contribution by suggesting and discussing new driven forces of the future as what he calls " The Global Teenager". Schwartz indicates that at the present time there are about two billion teenagers in the world, most of which live in third world countries. These countries do not have many business opportunities, whereas in industrial countries the population of teens is dropping. In order to survive, teens will have to immigrate all over the world. At the same time industrial countries will not accept them unless they are educated enough. Therefore, the whole future relies on education. As computers will become more affordable, more teens will communicate with other teens around the world and will want to travel and learn more. However, the author noticed that how countries will handle immigration remains a critical uncertainty. But it is inevitable that management in all industrial countries will have to deal with even more cultural diversity and will have to face a great deal of learning to come to mutual understanding.
This book made me think about something I have never thought before. I think the author made a strong point in showing that a good scenario leads to many new questions and it is an ongoing learning process. Thus, the book will be especially interesting managers, decision makers and to all people who study business planning and communication, but I would also recommend it for general reading. Indeed, I believed that the book teaches important principals of critical thinking that is in great demand in our high competitive reality. My reading of the book suggests that Schwartz's verified with many examples that future cannot be predetermined and that the main point of scenario building is to train yourself to look for details that can lead to unexpected changes. However, you have to plan in advance if you want to have enough time to prepare yourself for any uncertainty in the future. After reading this book I feel like I finally grow up. Importance of the subject makes me change my perceptions of view on certain thinks I did not want to consider before in my personal life.
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Summary: Liberate your insights!
Review:
In "The Art of the Long View," Peter Schwartz, one of the world leading futurists introduces the concepts of scenario planning. He argues that scenario thinking is an art not a science, and people in general has an innate ability to build scenarios, and to foresee the future. From the book, the readers can learn how to build their own future scenarios. They are neither predictions nor mere extrapolations of the present trends. They help us to know the shape of unfolding future reality. A good scenario must have surprised elements with power to break the stereotypes. The general principles of scenario planning are neatly summarized in the appendix, "Steps to Developing Scenarios." They compose of: Step One: identify the focal issue or decision; Step Two: list the key Micro-Factors relevant to that issue or decision; Step Three: list the key Macro-Driving Forces; Step Four: cross-rank Factors and Forces in terms of importance and uncertainty; Step Five: select Scenario Logic; Step Six: flesh out Scenarios; Step Seven: identify Probable Implications; and Step Eight: select Leading Indicators and Signposts. However, the order of the steps may be muddled in some cases. For me, as a former employee of Shell in Cambodia, it is an eye-opening reading. I wish I had read this book before I started to develop the promotion plan for Shell Cambodia. The great pleasure of adopting a constant futurist's perspective on things is that it forces you to think of different possible ways things may happen and have at hand the answers to the "what if...?" questions either plausible or implausible. Then comes a shift in the mindset that leads to the change in behavior in managing organization, let it be global corporation like Royal Dutch Shell or AT&T and small family businesses. It is an excellent read if you want to liberate your insights from your existing "mental map".
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Summary: Denial is the first step
Review: A very good friend of mine recommended this book to me, as Schwartz's technique on scenario planning became the backbone of his research topic in urban planning. I was very eager to see what Schwartz had to say about his livelihood.
There are complaints about his examples being outdated. I think they serve the point of illustration. The three thing that are critical, as Schwartz pointed out, are
1) Denial - which drives even the biggest companies to the ground,
2) Strategic conversation - think of it as those "business" meetings that in Godfather (with less blood), and
3) Technological trends - this one is self-explanatory.
The deatils for each area, I will let you find out.
Incidentally, I read Schwartz's "Inevitasble Surprises" before reading this book, so this is contrary to the chronlogical order of publication. Nevertheless, they complement each other, and should be read concurrently.
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Summary: Helps you figure out where this chaotic world could go
Review: Are you confused by the chaos in the world? Where is all this leading us? Peter does a very good job at allowing the reader to take seemingly disparate threads of information (he tells you HIS sources of information) to weave different scenarios for what the future *COULD* look like. The information is presented such that you can apply these techniques to your personal life as well as your business. He stresses the difference between Forecasting and Scenarios. A very good book to read if you are trying to figure out where you/your business could be in 5, 10, 20 years, and where the world could be in 5, 10, 20 years
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Summary: Scenario for personal life
Review: As an international student who stays in Hawaii for a while, Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View inspired me to make planning for my future whether in Hawaii or other places. His explanations about scenario building may be adapted to my personal life as well as in business to plan my better life in future. Moreover, as a human being, we have an innate ability to build scenarios and to forecast the future. He said that scenarios are apparatuses for helping us to acquire a long view in a great uncertainty rather than simply predicting the future. Therefore, it is possible to prepare for our future. In real time, the eight steps of developing scenarios which he suggested in his book are used in many fields. Most websites about forecasting adopt his idea as a basic foundation to prepare alternative future with social, economic, political, and technological points of views. Although he said scenario building as "art" not "science", it may not reduce the important of scenario building to identify alternative dimensions of future by recognizing the driving forces and composing the plots. I recommend for a beginner in particularly non-native English speaker in forecasting or in future planning reading this book as a guide. His guide is easy and simple to apply for everyone to anticipate unexpected changes.
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Summary: Projecting Alternative Futures from the Present
Review: As the present comes from the past, our future can be projected from the present. We can prepare for the uncertain future based on the current social, political, economical, technological, environmental clues. Peter Schwartz, president of Global Business Network, shows this point well through his cases and experiences in The Art of the Long View.
Our history is full of various changes. The world in the present is different from the past and will have another shape in the future. Uncertainties in the future can be risks or opportunities for individuals and organizations depending on the degree of our preparedness.
This book encourages us to identify predetermined driving forces and make alternative scenarios with your imaginative power according to critical uncertainties. It is very cogent based on plenty of experiential cases of Schwartz such as Shell and Smith & Hawken.
Epistemological freedom seems to plays crucial role in Schwartz' works. He recommends as the first step of scenario building that we should liberate our mind from existing stereotypes of the future. That may be why teamwork in scenario building is recommend. While there will be definitely one real future, several futures are possible in the present tense.
This epistemological advice is what is needed to the process of scientific theory building because any theory is not complete and there may be blindspot. But, scenario building is different from theory building in that it is telling alternative stories about the future, not the present. This process requires our both research on the present and our imagination about the future. So, Schwartz calls scenario building as "art" not "science".
Be future artists!!
Rating:
Summary: A good way to view your future
Review: Book Review: The Art of the Long View ¡®The Art of the Long View¡¯ by Peter Schwartz is a book about planning our future. Different to the past, which we already knew, and the present, which is going on, it is impossible to tell what the future will be. However, people, companies, cities, and states, as well as the world like to know about their future. Thus, we could plan the future with a forecasting skill, scenario writing. Schwartz suggests a long view for the future planning. He argues that scenarios are tools for helping us to take a long view in a great uncertainty rather than simply predicting the future. Admitting the uncertainty of scenario, the author insists that it is possible for us to prepare for the future. The purpose of this book is giving a guideline to build scenarios. The author explains uncovering decisions, information hunting and gathering, creating scenario building blocks, composing plots, and writing scenarios. Moreover, he suggests the eight steps of developing scenarios (Step 1. Identify focal issue or decision, 2. Key forces in the local environment, 3. Driving forces, 4. Rank by importance and uncertainty, 5. Selecting scenario logics, 6. Fleshing out the scenarios, 7. Implications, 8. Selection of leading indicators and signposts) which are helpful for scenario writers. I agree with the author in terms of that scenarios are tools for long view. Although scenarios have much of uncertainty, they are needed for planning. It is better to have plans for people and organizations even the results are different to plans. With social, economic, political, and technological points of views, scenarios could be sufficient alternative future.
Rating:
Summary: A good way to view your future
Review: Book Review: The Art of the Long View ¡®The Art of the Long View¡¯ by Peter Schwartz is a book about planning our future. Different to the past, which we already knew, and the present, which is going on, it is impossible to tell what the future will be. However, people, companies, cities, and states, as well as the world like to know about their future. Thus, we could plan the future with a forecasting skill, scenario writing. Schwartz suggests a long view for the future planning. He argues that scenarios are tools for helping us to take a long view in a great uncertainty rather than simply predicting the future. Admitting the uncertainty of scenario, the author insists that it is possible for us to prepare for the future. The purpose of this book is giving a guideline to build scenarios. The author explains uncovering decisions, information hunting and gathering, creating scenario building blocks, composing plots, and writing scenarios. Moreover, he suggests the eight steps of developing scenarios (Step 1. Identify focal issue or decision, 2. Key forces in the local environment, 3. Driving forces, 4. Rank by importance and uncertainty, 5. Selecting scenario logics, 6. Fleshing out the scenarios, 7. Implications, 8. Selection of leading indicators and signposts) which are helpful for scenario writers. I agree with the author in terms of that scenarios are tools for long view. Although scenarios have much of uncertainty, they are needed for planning. It is better to have plans for people and organizations even the results are different to plans. With social, economic, political, and technological points of views, scenarios could be sufficient alternative future.
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