Rating: 
Summary: Very disappointing
Review: Like other first-time buyers, I'm trying to figure out whether I should buy now or wait. But this book gave me virtually no practical advice about how to judge my local market (except to compare average home prices to average incomes--which is a nearly meaningless statistic for projecting price increases or decreases). He defines "crash" as a 10-20% price drop, but offers no real time line. Basically, by focusing on the so-called national housing market, this book becomes little more than mishmash of charts, tables, and statistics (GIGO).Conclusion: disappointing and superficial!
Rating: 
Summary: Appraiser's Prospective
Review: Mr. Talbott is very close to the bull's eye with his book. I am a real estate broker and appraiser who has been appraising residential real estate for nearly ten years. And, from personal experience I can tell you that the vast majority of residential real estate is in fact over valued. In the three markets I have worked in, Richmond,VA; Hampton Roads,VA; and Columbus, GA - Phenix City, AL; most appraisers are pressured by loan officers and brokers to hit the numbers or else their out of business. Please realize that loan officers and brokers need the sale/loan to close before they earn their commissions. Why would they hire an appraiser who does not make "the numbers." This collusion is further exacerbated by the government through subsidies of banks, FannieMae, FreddieMac, and through other mortgage insurances and government garantees. In my view, as long as "lender select," i.e., the lenders are allowed to select appraisers there will be pressure on appraisers to hit the numbers. Now, some may say the appraisers are interpreting the market when making their appraisals, this may be true. But, what if the market their are interpreting is already inflated? Would not their numbers be inflated? Mr. Talbott's section titled "Do Banks and Appraisers Act Rationally?" makes an excellent case. Will the market crash? I don't know, no one knows for sure, but if you leave with anything from "The Coming Crash..." BUY SMART!!! Mr. Talbott's book is a big help.
Rating: 
Summary: Real Estate Investing now is a Greater Fool's game
Review: Mr. Talbott's work is badly needed at a time when honest and unbiased advice is hard to come by. I have been doing quite a bit of research over the Web in the topic of real estate investment. What it all boils down to is this: the advice offer by anyone remotely link to the real estate industry, mortgage finances etc, is always, without a doubt, BUY, BUY, BUY. Or now is the best time to buy, etc, or interest is all time low, you are throwing money away by renting, etc, What these so call real estate professionals not telling you is that, it's the PRINCIPAL amount you pay for the house that ultimately counts. Do I need to say more? Well, consider this:1). When was the last time you get a raise from your employer? And was your raise 10% a year every year from 1995 to 2003 or was your raise less than 3% 2). the average salary in US and in Canada is not very high; suffice to say that it's well below $50K/year. Mr. Talbott mentioned in the introduction to his book that his friend, Frank's cash flow of $23K/year seem to epitomize the average income earner in US and in Canada. Thus, the average American would have a difficult time saving $500,000 in his whole working life! Never mind spending it all in the house. 3). Every Tom, Dick and Harry can qualify a mortgage nowadays should tell you something. 4). When you are at home, at the office, or at a dinner party, what is the single topic people talk about nowadays? People now not only buy real estate, our nations have become OBSESS with the house. 5). What about immigrate? Well, I'm an immigrate myself, and let me tell you that most immigrant don't make a whole lot of money, thus, we are what Mr. Talbott refers to as the "high risk" group. So how do we immigrate buy houses? By combining multiple families together (multi-dwelling) and buy a single detach house, then stuck with each other whether we can get along or not just to "keep up with the Jones". Now, imagine if one of us lost our dish-washing jobs or factory jobs. The bricks could collapse! So why buy real estate? 1). Well, so we can rent it out, even though now is the best TENANT market ever. 2). God doesn't make anymore land, even though politicians can make more land at a stoke of a fountain pen. 3). because rent is money down the drain, while mortgage interest, condo fees, and property taxes is NOT. 4). As long as you rent, you will never own. Well, personally, I increase my bank account every month by $2000 via paying cheap rents while the average principal portion of the average mortgage payment is much less. I guess I'm a lucky immigrant after all. 5). It's OK to be fool and pay top dollars for a house, so long as we can find a greater fool in the future who willing to pay us even more dollars, we will be making a profit. 6). What the heck is happening in America? I think I should start to teach my kids that life is a gamble and ways to minimize risk. Seriously folks, how stupid can we be?
Rating:
Summary: I have mixed feelings about this book
Review: Of course, housing values can decline for various reasons. They could be going up in one area while plummeting in another. I live in the Los Angeles area and I have made over $150,000 in the last few years by selling two condos. I am now thinking about buying a house. My view is if the value goes down I have a place to live, use as a tax deduction and build equity in. However, if I rent I have a place to live but no tax deduction or equity. With rising populations, immigration, land shortages, and the exodus from small towns and rural areas to cities, my home will eventually be worth more than what I paid. The author compares the predicted housing crash to the crash in technology stocks. There is one big problem with this comparison. People don't need to own stock. They do need to live somewhere. They must rent or they must buy. Real estate is a necessity, stock ownership is not. If someone has to make the choice between buying a home with a $2000 mortgage and a 27% tax break on the interest or paying $1500 to rent, many will choose to buy. The author mentions that low interest rates have created excessive demand and are driving property values to an unsustainable level. This may be true but again if you are buying for the long term you may be better off getting in at a lower rate. A $300,000 home with 10% down will come out to a $1,533 mortgage with a rate of 5.5%. A $250,000 home with 10% down will come out to a $1,573 mortgage with a rate of 7.5%. So waiting for prices to go down could end up costing more. However, the short term buyer should be concerned about future interest rate increases. A factor to consider: many people have made so much money from selling previous homes that they will be able to make huge downpayments, which means lower mortgages, on future homes even if interest rates rise. So a downturn could take several years even when rates go up. Before buying a home I recommend that you look at rents in your area. If they are very high that means that demand is greater than supply. If they are low that means supply is greater than demand. If you plan to live in the house for the rest of your life then go ahead and buy. However, if your employment situation is not stable you might find renting a better choice. This is better than selling your house at a loss in an emergency. Also, look at how much land is available in the area. A lot of open land means potential overbuilding. I came away from this book feeling that the author made too many simplistic assumptions. Many people may choose to stay out of the housing market as a result of reading this book and potentially lose thousands or tens of thousands in capital gains, equity and tax deductions. Unfortunately, since the premise of the book is that a major crash is inevitable he overlooked many factors that could keep housing prices high for a longtime.
Rating:
Summary: Excellent! Finally someone to answer the nagging questions.
Review: One of the most interesting aspects of the book was that it answered many of my nagging questions that I had about home buying and mortgages. This includes issues that I see every day with my family and co-workers. I consistently wondered how a person could make $30,000 per year could qualify for a mortgage of $175,000. Many receive mortgages with little or no money down. How can they have a mortgage payment of $1200.00 per month and cope? How did a mortgage banker determine that they were credit-worthy? How could so many single people afford a home? Every single woman and man in my office (20 people or so) is currently buying his or her own home. Even married couples seen to spend an ever-increasing amount of their salaries to support a mortgage. How does anyone in this day and age determine future employment or employability? Globalization and the quest for lower labor costs have put pressure on nearly all jobs, even in the field of education, where I work. If people are spending 40- 50% of their salary on housing, how will they fund other needs, such as saving for retirement and education for their children? Both my parents and in-laws live on a fixed income with social security and small work pensions. I know that there is no way that they could afford to carry a mortgage after retirement. Property taxes, insurance and maintenance take an increasing share of their fixed income. Now, I know that they are all pretty much broke, they just don't know if yet.
Rating:
Summary: YOUR HOUSES VALUE CAN TUMBLE????
Review: Over 69% of the USA now own houses, interest rate are unnaturally low, personal bankruptcies are at a record high, on average, every American has $16,000 in credit card debt...This book pinpoints one of the yet-to-pop bubbles in the housing market. While home values increase at 7% a year, property taxes increase 3%, it's a matter of time before the weight of affording a home exceeds most families ability to pay for it. This book is definitely an eye opener when it comes to what is happening. The book's message is not "dont buy a house" but one of understanding the current situation and make smart decisions while making an investment in a home. An Excellent Enlightening Read! - Mason Johnson, President, www.tomorrowsgold.com
Rating: 
Summary: No one can predict the future
Review: Read much of the book one day a few months ago. Many on here have already pointed out the main themes I came away with, so I'll not be redundant. Given that, it is important to note that real estate markets are local and not national. Yeah, yeah we've all heard that before, and other factors, such as changes in interest rates, are national, not local, trends. But like everything in life, it's neither black or white but shades of gray that matter. I almost chuckle at those who are worried about prices having risen 50% in 3 or 4 years. Friend, that's nothing to worry about. An excellent return, perhaps a bit out of the ordinary, but nothing to lose sleep over. Here's what I lose sleep over. Paid $340 in March 1998 in Orange County. Same house now on market down the street for $950!! That's closing in on a a 3-bagger, in the parlance of Peter Lynch, in 6 years. Moreover, I read yesterday that while the mix of fixed to variable rate loans nationally is roughly 70-30 (assumption being that fixed rate loans provide some protection against a downturn), here in California it's the reverse! - 70% of all loans are variable or worse yet "interest only". What will happen here when the chickens come home to roost? We're getting back to where we were in '89......
Rating:
Summary: Horrible Title, Plenty of Good Points however.
Review: Read much of the book one day a few months ago. Many on here have already pointed out the main themes I came away with, so I'll not be redundant. Given that, it is important to note that real estate markets are local and not national. Yeah, yeah we've all heard that before, and other factors, such as changes in interest rates, are national, not local, trends. But like everything in life, it's neither black or white but shades of gray that matter. I almost chuckle at those who are worried about prices having risen 50% in 3 or 4 years. Friend, that's nothing to worry about. An excellent return, perhaps a bit out of the ordinary, but nothing to lose sleep over. Here's what I lose sleep over. Paid $340 in March 1998 in Orange County. Same house now on market down the street for $950!! That's closing in on a a 3-bagger, in the parlance of Peter Lynch, in 6 years. Moreover, I read yesterday that while the mix of fixed to variable rate loans nationally is roughly 70-30 (assumption being that fixed rate loans provide some protection against a downturn), here in California it's the reverse! - 70% of all loans are variable or worse yet "interest only". What will happen here when the chickens come home to roost? We're getting back to where we were in '89......
Rating: 
Summary: non sense
Review: since the book was published, 20% price increased.
Rating:
Summary: A track record of incorrect "predictions"
Review: Talbott is yet another loser who sat on his hands waiting for the market to fall before buying. Now he's just another academic who missed the boat and can't afford to live where he "teaches" (I use the term loosely). Follow his predictions and you'll find one piece of bad advice after another. His only alternative is to write a "sky is falling" book, push it by writing editorials in the local press, and hope the sales are enough to get himself into a 600 sq ft condo in South Central. Here we have another example of why the UC system is in trouble academically: Liberalism at its worst.
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