Rating: 
Summary: Innumeracy redux
Review: ..... If you think Talbott has proven his thesis with data and numbers, you show yourself as a Class A math and economics dunce. This book will persuade those who already believe, but if you want sound and reasoned analysis you won't find it in this text.
Rating: 
Summary: several good points raised in this book..
Review: ..that are not discussed much elsewhere. The book uses charts a bit too much for my liking, but the description of how Fannie Mae actually does business was worth the books price. I don't think this book would necessarily apply to all areas of the country, but in the overheated housing markets it may certainly have relevance.Either way, the book makes a strong argument that the mortgage business may not be nearly as stable as everyone seems to think and that the seemingly endless supply of cash being made available for mortgages has been the major force to driving up prices. In sum, I would say the jury is still out, but this book makes a compelling argument. Many of the figures discussed are hard to argue with.
Rating:
Summary: So many reviews, so much idiocy
Review: Amazing how 30+ readers can take the same book and come to such differing conclusions. * I have to say that overall the book provided some interesting insight and food for thought. * Book TITLE was overly provacative. Above anything I think the author is simply saying you should run your numbers VERY closely before buying residential real estate. * I laugh at those idiots who, in claiming the book's premise is false, do little more than stating the author is a LOSER and then go on to point out that since prices have continued to rise over the past six months a crash will not happen. That shred of evidence is then invoked to counter all the author's claims. Do these people really READ these books????
Rating:
Summary: As a homeowner/Real Estate Investor
Review: As a home owner in the most expensive housing market (SF bay Area) this book scared me to death. As a Real Estate Investor who would never dream of buying investment property in this state, for a variety of reasons, I'm excited about the opportunites coming my way. This gives me time to get experience and training in buying foreclosures and REO's. If what the author says/predicts comes true there will never be a better time to buy properties at a bigger discount (less than wholesale) and rents should actaully stay the same or go higher because the people that just had their house forclosed upon have to live somewhere, ie rentals. Keep it positive by paying down the mortgage take profits later. Biggest thing I learned was to be smart about your debt and debt leverage. Pay down the mortgage as much as you can. There are very fews bad things that can be said about having too little/no debt.
Rating:
Summary: Thought Provoking
Review: As an investment banker who buys blocks of mortgages around America this is an important subject as to whether the value of my collateral will deteriorate. Talbott does a good job presenting his case that there is a relationship between household income and housing prices. His point is well taken that low interest rates have fueled this boom and that when rates rise, housing prices will have to come down. So, from the perspective of his thesis, I found this to be well written and well documented even if I agree there is a risk but do not believe that it will be significant.
For example, he quotes the very low average household net worth?s of households. Households 45 to 54 have less than $200,000 mean net worth. But when median net worth is taken into account for the same group, the number is closer to $700,000. Doesn't this support current home prices while at the same time highlighting a bigger issue, the widening diversity of haves and have-nots in America? Also, San Diego is presented as the least affordable housing, $379,000 average home vs. $60,000 average income. That's a great fact but does it take into account the large military population that is generally lowly paid but highly transient that may be more renter than buyer in that area? I theorize that these many people are lowering average household income while substantially not trying to purchase homes.
This is a complex issue I have purchased mortgages and real estate around America through the Texas, East Coast and California busts. It is worthwhile to discuss that that risk is higher now than in the past 14 years. But I'm not convinced I see the current catalyst for a bust.
DISCLOSURE: I spoke recently at a banking conference on the likelihood of a home pricing crash. The speech was well received and there are many that worry of this issue. I quoted Talbott and gave him credit for his opinion. He provided great insight and material for a contrarian view on home prices.
Rating: 
Summary: Excellent remarks on US housing market
Review: Before purchasing this book, I read most reviews on this board, and found very polarized ratings about it. This book surely upsets millions of people, who hold strong denials that the housing market is over valued because the facts and scary scenarios presented by the author are against their wishful thinkings that real estate investments nowadays are more tangible and secure than "intangible" investments. I respect Talbott's courage to speak up! Valuations on Real Estate in general are much less developed than valuations on equity, while equity valuations are arguable science themselves. Therefore I think Talbott did a great job in presenting his arguments from as many as possible angles by using ratios and charts. It would be better if he could have used data that dated further back in history, but I doubt there are enough records in this area. Simple based on records starting from 1970's, the fact has been clear: the housing market madness in the past decades has reached an unsustainable level providing business practices of the industry, dark sites of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and evidently general public's mentality on Real Estate. Housing market is extremely local, so I think the author did a decent job in printing a bigger picture since commenting on local markets and predicting timeframe is technically infeasible. It's your job to make judgment and take actions once facts are presented. The author virtually tells us:
1) There are structural problems in US housing market (yes, we do!)
2) Being over stretched in debt financing normally ends in crash (Isn't this true!)
3) What goes up comes down (Law of nature, isn't it?)
4) When everyone is eager to get into something, be watchful (Have we heard of "herd mentality"? How did it end?) It's a great book to understand some dynamics of US housing market. Highly recommended!
Rating:
Summary: Well researched and informative.
Review: Despite the blatant fear mongering title, this book actually uses sound reasoning, statistics and facts to prove a point that houses are overvalued. Talbott gets into the increasing housing costs for individuals, especially the recent spike that economically doesn't make sense. He goes through the range of reasons, from the low interest rates, the stock market abandonment, to the increasing amounts of leverage. He then explains how those prices are out of range historically. The most impressive and eye opening part was the thorough and precise explanation of the inefficiency of the housing market. He goes through the irrationality of the current home owners, mortgage insurance companies, the bankruptcy system, and tells how the structure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encourages increasingly risky and extended loans while shutting out healthy competition. The only disappointment was the fact that I was not convinced of a crash. He did an excellent job of showing the overpriced market, but gave no reason why a correction would be sudden or dramatic, as opposed to a gradual leveling off in a few years. All in all, it's an informative and worthwhile read.
Rating:
Summary: Well researched and informative.
Review: Despite the blatant fear mongering title, this book actually uses sound reasoning, statistics and facts to prove a point that houses are overvalued. Talbott gets into the increasing housing costs for individuals, especially the recent spike that economically doesn't make sense. He goes through the range of reasons, from the low interest rates, the stock market abandonment, to the increasing amounts of leverage. He then explains how those prices are out of range historically. The most impressive and eye opening part was the thorough and precise explanation of the inefficiency of the housing market. He goes through the irrationality of the current home owners, mortgage insurance companies, the bankruptcy system, and tells how the structure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encourages increasingly risky and extended loans while shutting out healthy competition. The only disappointment was the fact that I was not convinced of a crash. He did an excellent job of showing the overpriced market, but gave no reason why a correction would be sudden or dramatic, as opposed to a gradual leveling off in a few years. All in all, it's an informative and worthwhile read.
Rating:
Summary: Nothing wrong with a little hedge against your home...
Review: Even if you don't agree with the conclusions, you have to agree that this book does a great job describing where we are right now. The sections on derivatives, Freddy and Fanny, and the unregulated spinning of mortgages on Wall Street really start to 'hit home' when taken in the context of the recent corporate scandals. In my minds eye I can see the CEO's of the major mortgage players in front of Elliot Spitzer trying not to look like crooks. The idea that as a culture we have been conditioned to 'do the deal at any cost' will come back to get us in many ways, and maybe a housing crash will be the least of our worries. Regardless, if you are a capitalist, and you want to keep your homes, but hedge against a crash there are great strategies, including currency plays, precious metals, options and bear funds, that can be pulled together using the information provided in this book. I am a capitalist, and I own four properties. I read it in one day. I couldn't put it down. My gut was telling me to go on. To those, reviewers or not, that foresee house prices rising ad infinitum, I say that any book that makes you think is a good book. This is a Great Book.
Rating: 
Summary: Here We Are Sept, 2004
Review: Housing Market is still going up. My own "views" is us seeing the houseing market slowing down and homes in higher cost areas to come down, one cause is because of intrest rates going up this putting most people out of the higher cost housing market. Lower and med price homes will stable off. And someone I read on this form said, her grandfolks wanted to buy a home to live in and stay and not do flips with the home. The stock market has return to pre 2001 if you only held and not pick up cisco and the yahoo ect kept a index fund your doing fine today, even better if you kept buying in the down turn. If your buying to hold a good house to live in maybe even buying a extra home for a rental just keep in mind wise words, just live within your belt and take it in one knoch. Ride the waves and if homes do come down in a crash or just a few rungs go buy some more, the market will return and start going up. Remember the housing crash in the 80's those same homes today are the same ones selling today for huge profits. Also Remember more people move to the USA every year, and this USA growth is not stoping. If there is a crash keep some money on the side and BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY. If there is a crash use it to get your retirement years in order buy and hold and when the market returns sell some and live on the rents of the others.
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