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The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Most depressing book I have ever read.
Review: I'm sure that the economists would debate just about every point made by Mr. Heinberg in this (end of the world as we know it) book but the author offers justification and factual evidence for almost every claim made.

Since I was born, the population of the world has grown from two billion to almost seven billion and this population explosion corresponds exactly with our industrialized society's almost total dependence on oil and coal for food production, transportation, heating and cooling our homes, manufacturing products and transporting them to market and just about everything else the US and other advanced nations do.

All of this growth has been happening because we have been discovering more oil than we are currently using. This will end within 5 or 10 years and all the readily available oil on earth will be gone within 30 years. Oil shale (organic marlstone) is not the answer because it takes more energy to get the oil from the stone than the end product plus you wind up with more waste that the raw materials you started with.

If we had started planning for this when OPEC shut down our supply in 1973 and part of 1974 in retaliation for our support of Israel during the Arab-Israei war, much of the coming crisis could have been avoided but we all remember what happened to President Carter when he started talking about conservation. Reagan was elected and no politician since has followed Carter's path. Now it is time to pay.

The author gives us two ways to cope with the upcoming crisis: We can join the international community and try and make the transition from fossil fuels to other sources as smoothly as possible or we can continue to try and maintain our priviledged status even as our civilization falls. The United States currently has 5% of the world's population and the majority of the weapons of war.

Since we are at war right now in Iraq and Iraq is supposed to have the second highest oil resources in the middle east, I believe the choice has already been made.

If my father was a member of "The Greatest Generation", I am ashamed to admit I am a member of the worst generation. I pray that Mr. Heinberg is wrong but I am afraid that my children and grandchildren will hate each and every one of us "baby boomers" who wasted all these resources and left them nothing.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Entertaining. . .
Review: If I were rating this book solely on entertainment value, I'd have given it 4 stars. . . it was a very enjoyable read. That said, I'm not sure I could even give the arguments in the book 2 stars. I found it particularly ironic that while he repeatedly disparages economist, he liberally quote Paul Ehrlich, who was so thoroughly embarrassed in his 1980's bet with the economist Julian Simon.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Last Call for Drinks
Review: Imagine that the world is quickly running out of cheap oil and that within the next few years, global production will peak. Thereafter, even if industrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they will have less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survival of complex societies. We would be entering a new era; a post-oil era, as different from the industrial era as the latter was from medieval times. Unfortunately, humanity probably won't have to imagine this scenario for long.

In The Party's Over, Richard Heinberg attmepts to place the momentous transition in historical context, showing how industrialism arose from the harnessing of fossil fuels, how competition to control access to oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, and how contention for dwindling energy resources in the 21st century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South America. Heinberg describes the likely impacts of oil depletion, goes through the Pros and Cons of the known energy alternatives. He predicts chaos unless the U.S. -- the world's largest oil consumer -- is willing to join with other countries to implement a global program of resource conservation and sharing, he also recommends a "managed collapse" that might make way for a slower-paced, low-energy, sustainable society in the future. This book's subject matter and historical chronology offers added context and understanding to many of the world's current resource conflicts.

I've read critiques of this book and the biggest negatives people listed were that the author is apparently "biased" against some alternative energy sources (nuclear) Vs others, and the author is too pessimistic. The first critique is debatable, but to be honest I'm no fan of nuclear energy myself; the second is almost silly in light of what this book is about. When dealing with subject matter of such monumental importance, depletion of oil, the author has no obligation to be optimistic. Quite frankly, modern industrial society simply does not function without access to cheap, accessible, and plentiful oil - and when it's no longer available, this will NOT be a pleasant situation. Ultimately the question must be asked, has humanity done what is necessary to make the transition bearable? That question remains to be answered but according to Richard Heinberg, it doesn't look good especially in the U.S.. The Party's Over is probably one of the most readable works on the issue of oil depletion. It tackles the history, the current context, and the future and current social implications. It even makes suggestions for personal, community, national, and global action. I highly recommend this work for anyone serious about understanding this increasingly important issue.


Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Another half empty glass
Review: Mr Heinberg gives us another installment of Chicken Little as told through the eyes of an environmentalist. Nothing new here just more of the same old stuff.

Don't waste you time and money on this one.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: The reality of the challenges in the coming decades
Review: Of four excellent book on the topic "Oil", The Party's Over is my favorite. It is well written, easy to read, logical, rational and documented with extensive facts. Richard Heinberg compares his position on various issues with those of other authors who disagree, and provides a good defense for his position. His last chapter, Managing the Collapse:
Strategies and Recommendations, offers realistic options and solutions, and understandably indicates that the lifestyle as we know it can not be maintainable. He describes the reality of the coming changes in great detail, and paints a picture that many people will be reluctant to accept.

This book is essential reading for those concerned about the environment and the future of mankind, and are willing to face the challenges ahead.

PS. The other three excellent books are: The Oil Factor by Stephen Leeb, Out of Gas by David Goodstein, and Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Best of the Peak Oil Books
Review: Of the five "Peak Oil" genre books I've read so far, this one is the best. The author considers various consequences and scenarios for the post "Peak Oil" world, and does a thoughtful and sobering job of it. He flirts a bit with the "die-off" school of thought, which suggests that the world's population is going to be drastically reduced after peak oil has hit. (Let's pray that it isn't.) Whether or not you agree with Mr. Heinberg, this book will help you think through the implications of the down-side of Hubbert's curve, and make you ponder dozens of actions you might take to prepare for it. By the way, there's a really fantastic, hard to get, DVD called, the "End of Suburbia" that some Canadians put together that has some spine-tingling interviews with numerous "Peak Oil" authors (including this one) that you should buy if you're interested in the subject.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: urgent memo to lemmings
Review: Once upon a time there was an oil crisis. That was the 1970s. Then oil prices went down, availability seemed assured, and so it was thought the crisis was solved. But of course oil is non-renewable, so this was just wishful thinking -- whistling in the dark. Now 9/11 has woken some of us back up to the reality of our situation -- metaphorically hurtling toward a cliff at an accelerating velocity.

The guts of Heinberg's presentation is a summary of the projections of the oil geologists. Following Hubbert, they use the best information on reserves to estimate the global peak for oil some time in the next few years, probably by 2010. Some see this as alarmist (see my review of Vaitheeswaran's "Power to the People"), but the mainstream estimate is only a decade further off, at 2020. The world is going to become an uglier place than it already is after Hubbert's Peak -- prices will go up, and wars for control of oil and gas (ie, Afghanistan, Iraq) will certainly intensify as the demand is still increasing exponentially both in the rich countries and the industrializing countries such as China and India.

So what do we do? Heinberg does not flinch from a hard-headed examination of the limited options. He applies a physics analysis of EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) to such possibilities as solar, wind, geothermal, hydrogen, nuclear and others. His conclusion is that there is currently nothing that is likely to make energy available at nearly the same EROEI as oil and gas once they run out. A tragic "what might have been" is his observation that if we had taken concerted action beginning in the 1970s, we might have had time to use the remaining fossul fuels to fuel the building of a renewable solar/hydrogen infrastructure that would have made possible in principle a long, prosperous, ecologically sustainable, civilized planet. It may well be too late.

This is no reason not to try, though. In the best-case scenario, there's no collapse and we minimize global warming by shifting to renewable energy. And better than the worst-case crash scenario is to urgently develop renewable energy, thus providing some cushioning for the crash that will come as we run out of oil. Reducing the size of a huge neomalthusian catastrophe (measured in millions or hundreds of millions of people dead, and ecostems and species lost) may not seem like much of a choice, but it may be all we've got. Carpe diem!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: An Industrial Strength Critique of Energy Usage
Review: Part history and part prophesy, this book is an outstanding summary of many major issues facing Western industrial society. Author Richard Heinberg provides a scholarly critique of modern industrialism, focusing on its current use of energy, and a sobering forecast based on predictable trends.

The key point of the book is that the Earth's crust can provide mankind with an essentially finite amount of fossil fuel energy, with primary reference to oil. Drawing on the relatively unknown, and oft-misunderstood, concept of "peak oil," the book addresses the imminent shortfall of petroleum that will not be available on world markets. That day of reckoning is far closer than most people think. "Peak oil" is a global application of Geologist M. King Hubbert's (1903-1989) studies of oil production in "mature" exploration districts. That is, exploration for oil in sedimentary basins at first yields substantial discoveries, which are then produced. Additional exploration yields less and less "new" oil discovered, and that level of discovery coming at greater and greater effort. Eventually, absent additional significant discovery, production "peaks" and then commences an irreversible decline. This has already occurred in the U.S. in the 1970's, and is in the process of occurring in oil-producing nations such as Mexico, Britain, Egypt, Indonesia and Malaysia. Ominously, "peak" production can be forecast in the next few years in such significant producing nations as Saudi Arabia and Iraq (in addition to all of the other problems in those unfortunate nations.)

Much of the rise of industrial society was tied to increasing availability of high energy-density fuel, particularly oil. Western society, and its imitators in non-Western lands, is based upon access to large amounts of energy-dense fuel, and that fuel is oil. With respect to the U.S., the domestic decline in oil production has been made up, over the past thirty years, by increasing imports from other locales, with concomitant political risk. When the world production "peaks" in the next few years, the competition for energy sources will become more fierce than it already is. This book addresses issues related to what are commonly thought of as "substitutes" for oil, such as coal, natural gas and natural gas liquids, and shatters many myths. The author also delves deeply into energy sources such as "tar sand," "oil shale," nuclear and renewable sources. And thankfully, the author offers a number of proposals to address the looming problem (although these proposals are probably not what an awful lot of people want to hear.)

A book like this one could easily descend into a tawdry level of "chicken-little" squawks and utter tendentiousness. But thankfully it does not do so. This is a mature, well-reasoned and carefully footnoted effort. I could take issue with some of the author's points about "big business" and how decisions are made at high political levels, but not in this review. Instead I will simply congratulate Mr. Heinberg for writing an important contribution to social discourse. I hope that a lot of people read this book and start to look at and think about the world differently.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Time Will Tell
Review: Prognostication is a tricky business, just ask Cassandra. Like the sybil from Troy Richard Heinberg alludes to in his book learned, they can shoot the messenger or just ignore the messenger but they can't avoid the future. A book predicting the fall of the Roman Empire was never published so Nero fiddled along. To quote the eminently quotable Elvis Costello "The truth can't hurt , it's just like the dark/ At first it scares you witless but in time you see things clear & stark." Time will tell if the author The Party's Over is a soothsayer or simply the next Jim Chanos, the Enron stock analyst who dug deep and sold short.
Like Kenneth Lay parking billions of dollars in debt in off shore shell companies while assuring his fold to park their cash in Enron stock, the gang holding up at 1600 Pennsylvania avenue don't want you to know the truth about energy resources. Richard Heinberg is telling us about fossil fuels what Arthur Anderson never told us about Enron, the end of abundant cheap oil is near. Far from being a doom sayer of apocalyptic proportions, he analyzes the fine print and finds the devil in the details. First prices will rise dramatically, then world wide debt will swell to unserviceable levels and finally the century long party thrown by the bones of the dinosaurs will wind down. Most politicians will deny it, of course. No politician will be willing to do a Jimmy Carter until the sun comes up. I'm going home early to prepare because Rome didn't fall in a day. Richard Heinberg may not be a hero but he surely will not play second fiddle to today's Nero's. Read this book, share this book. Read this book twice.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Time Will Tell
Review: Prognostication is a tricky business, just ask Cassandra. Like the sybil from Troy Richard Heinberg aludes to in his book learned, they can shoot the messenger or just ignore the messenger but they can't avoid the future. A book predicting the fall of the Roman Empire was never published so Nero fiddled alone. To quote the eminently quotable Elvis Costello "The truth can't hurt , it's just like the dark/ At first it blinds you but in time you see things clear & stark." Time will tell if the author is a soothsayer or simply the next Jim Chanos, the Enron stock anylist who dug deep and sold short
Like Kenneth Lay parking billions of dollars in debt in off shore shell companies while assuring his fold to park their cash in Enron stock, the gang holding up at 1600 Pennsylvania avenue don't want you to know the truth about energy resources. Richard Heinberg is telling us about fossil fuels what Arthur Anderson never told us about Enron, the end of abundant cheap oil is near. Far from being a doomsayer of apocalyptic proportions, he analyses the fine print and finds the devil in the details. First prices will rise dramaticly, then debt will swell to unservicable proportions and finally the century long party thrown by the bones of the dinasours will wind down. Many will deny it. I'm going home early to prepare because Rome didn't fall in a day. Richard Heinberg may not be a hero but he surely will not play second fiddle to Nero. Read this book, share this book. Read this book twice.


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