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Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

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Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 3 stars
Summary: The Masses Will Never Hear About It Until It's Too Late!!!!
Review: I was introduced to the concept of a major financial collapse and ensuing depression by Robert Kiyosaki in his latest book "Prophecy". Prechter has a similar doom and glooom approach but considers the'ark' or financial safe haven to hold your wealth in to be different. These men also differ in the timing of the crash - Kiyosaki conveniently gives you just the right amount of time to prepare. If deflationary depression is on the agenda for us then I believe his warnings should very well be heeded and at least some action be taken if you can be convinced of this radical and controversial opinion concerning the future world economic collapse.

If Prechter wants to educate the masses this is not the way to go about it. His book is full of complex economic deliberations that sound more like a geniuses drivel than good sense.

If deflationary depression is around the corner not to many people will hear about it or understand it largely due to people like Prechter who lack passion, marketing sense and presentation skills.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A Must Read Book
Review: If you expect to have any level of prosperity at all in the coming years, you need to read this book. It's a must read.

For a more in depth review and more helpful resources, visit ProsperityDoctor.com

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: A tremendous education in finance most Phd,s dont have!
Review: If you read the 1st paragraph of the October 23rd review, I would agree 100% with what he said about this book. I am so impressed with Bob Prechters knowledge, that I put him as an affiliate on my site:momsonlinestocks.com That said, Bobs, forecasts have not quite come true of yet and many reviewers bash him for it. However, when you see how convincing his arguements are for a worldwide financial collapse and if you just take 2 of the many arguments he presents, you will start to shiver. #1-He says that stocks traded at only 6x earnings after the 29 crash. (THEY ARE AROUND 36X THAT NOW ON THE S&P AND OFTEN 50X THAT ON THE NAZ!) #2-He offers a trememndous argument for our US dollar which "used" to be backed by gold, as now worth practically nothing, and only derivitives, leverage and pyramid type schemes by the treasury and most banks keep this secret hidden. But for how long!? Because of this book alone, I have become an absolute Elliot Wave fanatic and as a pro trader hope to polish my skills enough to offer my services to private investors and possibly institutions and mutual funds. Thank you Bob for the new hobby! I can't stop talking about Elliot Wave analysis.It is addicting. Read his other book ELLIOT WAVE PRINCIPLE to find out about the other half of this books reasonings. I would be delighted to hear from anyone here to get feedback and also to possibly form a club on elliot Wave Theory or the info in this book. My only knock on the book is that it may scare people into thinking they will need to run away from civilization and go live in the woods if his predictions finally come true. Worth a read, true or not. This book will give you more slants on the economy than any CNN reporter you listen to.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: SOME USEFUL INFO, BUT NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING
Review: If you take anything at all from this book, it should be that the only way to stay afloat in the financial world is to spend wisely, save at least 10-15% of your income each year, and diversify your investment portfolio with alternative asset classes like gold & commodities. When I say diversify, I mean that a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio won't do it anymore. I have read similar views from Harry Browne's "Fail-Safe Investing" and from fund managers such as David Tice of the Prudent Bear Funds. They all have been successful for years, and stress that with the falling dollar, one needs exposure to non-dollar-denominated securities and hard assets. I'm not convinced that the U.S., the engine of growth in the world is going into depression. That would have to be brought on by foreign sellers of U.S. bonds, and what would the alternative safe-haven be? EURO, Gold, a basket of currencies? Don't bet on it if you really think that our trading partners would stick a knife in us, the largest consumer market in the world. Besides, don't believe everything that the author says. We all know that trying to predict the future is an exercise in futlity and is akin to gambling....then again, so is playing the markets. Just be smart about it and do your research first before making investment decisions.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Financial food for thought...and action!
Review: If you're close to retirement age and can't stand to take another financial beating like the dot.com fiasco with your portfolio, you really ought to read this book and then take the author's recommendations for making your investments deflation/depression-proof. If you don't believe what he says and he turns out to be right, don't say you weren't warned!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Shows you how to profit from the coming depression.
Review: In his new book, Robert Prechter makes a convincing case that we are heading for a deflationary depression, similar to the environment the U.S. saw in the early 1930's, and Japan has experienced for the last 12 years. Readers are shown how to prepare, and even prosper as this deflationary scenario unfolds. While most will be crushed by the weight of their own mortgage and credit card debt, readers of this book can take advantage of a once in a lifetime investment opportunity.

Prechter's understanding of technical, contrary, and economic analysis is exceptional. According to conventional wisdom of investors, traders, and the so-called "experts" on Wall Street, external events and fundamentals cause psychology and social mood to change. Flying in the face of this conventional wisdom, Prechter maintains that in reality the opposite is true; psychology and social mood cause underlying economic and market conditions to change. Once you view events from this perspective you can successfully anticipate conditions and properly adjust your investment techniques for maximum wealth appreciation and preservation.

Prechter identifies the many ways for readers to profit off the continuing stock market decline. Whether you trade stocks, bonds, commodities, or options you will find valuable advice in this book. It will have a permanent spot on my own bookshelf next to Prechter's earlier classic "At the Crest Of the Tidal Wave". Prechter's advice will surely be used in my own trading.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A MUST READ FOR EVERYONE
Review: Just read this book yesterday after 6 months of deciding whether to liquidate my investment accts (IRAs, etc) to pay off my mortgage. Well afer reading this and Crash Profits, it was clear what I needed to do. I liquidated today and will pay off the house as soon as I get my hands on MY money. No more playing with the slick wall streeters and no more IOU from any banks, gov'ts, etc. So, do I recommend this book? You bet, very easy and quick read. Cuts right to the chase and backs it up with solid information.

I have to give credence to what Mr Prechter says even though he doesn't mention what I consider to have the most impact on world economies and politics over the next 2-3 decades; that is the depletion of the worlds energy supply and the fact that growing economies depend on a ready supply of cheap energy. If you're interested in this fascinating subject, do a search on "Peak Oil", or Dr Colin Campbell, and you'll see where I'm coming from.

I may miss out on some future investment returns, but I believe I'll sleep better knowing I own my property outright and am in a true sense making 5.875% on my money. It's the right choice for me and doesn't seem too drastic a measure in these uncertain times.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A MUST READ FOR EVERYONE
Review: Just read this book yesterday after 6 months of deciding whether to liquidate my investment accts (IRAs, etc) to pay off my mortgage. Well after reading this and Crash Profits, it was clear what I needed to do. I liquidated today and will pay off the house as soon as I get my hands on MY money. No more playing with the slick wall streeters and no more IOU from any banks, gov'ts, etc. So, do I recommend this book? You bet, very easy and quick read. Cuts right to the chase and backs it up with solid information.

I have to give credence to what Mr Prechter says even though he doesn't mention what I consider to have the most impact on world economies and politics over the next 2-3 decades; that is the depletion of the worlds energy supply and the fact that growing economies depend on a ready supply of cheap energy. If you're interested in this fascinating subject, do a search on "Peak Oil", or Dr Colin Campbell, and you'll see where I'm coming from.

I may miss out on some future investment returns, but I believe I'll sleep better knowing I own my property outright and am in a true sense making 5.875% on my money. It's the right choice for me and doesn't seem too drastic a measure in these uncertain times.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: A poorly argued case, even for market bears.
Review: Mr. Prechter is best known as a popular advocate for the Elliot Wave principle. He continues this school of thought in this book.

The book is divided into two parts. The first part attempts to persuade the reader that the US economy is headed for a deflationary depression. The second part recommends actions to prepare and prosper during a deflationary depression. This specific edition of the book also includes an update written in 2004. (The original book was written in 2002.)

First of all, with any investment book review, it is important to understand the reviewer's biases. My belief is that the US will enter some type of unwinding, either through an extended securities bear market, or more severe overall imbalance. I maintain a minor belief in technical analysis but do not rely on it.

Elliot Wave analysis is, at its core, a technical analysis methodology. Elliot Wave claims to find a recurring pattern in short term, long term, and ultra-long term market price charts. What is gravely missing, however, is some sort of explanation or justification for its supposed utility. Many schools of technical analysis, for example, give plausible explanations for why "resistance levels" exist based on market or individual investor psychology. This is completely missing from Mr. Prechter's writings and thus he fails to distinguish himself from a long line of failed data miners.

This missing and crucial "why" is the most glaring hole in this book. While other writers attempt to prove a thesis through a chain of reasoning and supporting data, Mr. Prechter skips steps in his thesis. The holes are not glaring to a casual reader, but a person with some breadth in economic knowledge will easily spot large omissions.

For example, even if you accept the disjointed framework of technical and fundamental analysis, the fundamental arguments for deflation are seriously flawed. Note, also, that Elliot Wave principles claim only to predict the performance of securities. Thus, Elliot Wave is agnostic with respect to the inflation vs. deflation debate. Therefore, Mr. Prechter's arguments for deflation are purely fundamental in basis. This is where his loose foundation really comes apart. His understanding of the Federal Reserve functions are contrary to those written by many other writers and scholars, including many who share similar contempt for the Federal Reserve. This is rather crucial, because the specific authorities and obligations of the Federal Reserve can determine whether a presumed economic failure results in deflation or hyper-inflation. Convincing cases for deflation have been made, but Mr. Prechter does not offer one.

Where many market bears thoroughly argue and carefully build their conclusions, Mr. Prechter glosses over far too many details to arrive at this deflation conclusion and blatantly ignores examples that contradict his thesis. He uses the US depression of 1929 as his sole argument that monetary policy is powerless to prevent deflation, forgetting that Federal Reserve authority was much lesser back then. Meanwhile, he ignores the numerous historical hyper-inflation examples caused by monetarism, such as 1970's US "stagflation", the recent collapses of Argentinean and Mexican currency, or even popular historical cases such as the South Sea Company bubble and post World War One Germany. Mr. Prechter is either grossly ignorant or deliberately avoiding such cases. Neither speaks well for him.

Most importantly, he sets up his own case of why he is wrong. He admits that there is a small probability that he could be wrong and that hyper-inflation will set in. Mr. Prechter says that this would be indicated by a declining US dollar and a price of gold reaching above $400 per ounce. Both are now clearly true, yet in his 50-page 2004 appendix, he conveniently ignores this fact and chooses to emphasize only his market index prognostication.

The rest of his fundamental case rests on material already beaten to death by other bearish scholars. He writes about historical price to earnings ratios, the contrarian indications given by popular finance magazines and long-to-short ratios, for example. His fundamental arguments are not thoroughly presented and escape ridicule only because others have argued the case before him. He adds nothing new here.

Since the first part of the book is so poorly supported, the second part regarding how to survive a depression is irrelevant. His recommendations generally apply only to deflation and would not work in a hyper-inflation or zero-inflation economy.

When one supports an already argued case, the burden of proof is small. However, if one dares to present a different case as Mr. Prechter has done, one needs to cover all well known and reasonably applicable cases at a minimum. Mr. Prechter has failed in this regard and by his own criteria.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: The best book, if you want to survive financially
Review: One of the best book ever written, about elliott wave theory, and a must read for everybody, who wants to survive financially in this decade.


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