Rating: Summary: Great book, especially for banking system insights Review: First, obviously Prechter has been very wrong this year, not just on his predictions about the stock market but also his bearish views on gold. This is true both for this book and his newsletter. Still, this book is terrific, and offers valuable insight into how our fiat currency and banking system actually works. Prechter also presents good historical background on what happened during past crashes, and his social commentary is always fun to read. I'm not that keen on Elliott Wave theory, so I mostly glossed over those parts. There are also very practical advice on where to buy gold, bonds, etc., which would be useful to novices.
Rating: Summary: nice reading Review: I believe every one who is invested in money should read. Here is why.I listened to CNN, CNBC, FOOL, CBS and a number of ecconomists and no one predicted market meltdown . ALL these clowns were wrong and have no clue about ecconomy. This guy has it. I dont know if US ecconomy will behave the way he talks. But with every American having a total ( govt, personal, and corp) debot of 100,000/person. Has anyone thought how this debt will be paid back? The baby boomers who are into retirement is doing so with so much debt, if they cant pay their debt while they were healthy and in good ecconomy how they can pay back while retired? When they die who will pay off the debt? no one. I am begining to thing Robert Pretcher's analysis is right. No one will loose money following it. But thinking DOW < 1000. is very hard. But for me thinking DOW < 10,000 in 1999 was ever harder. Paul
Rating: Summary: Simply the Best. Review: I bought the first eddition being a little skeptical about everything. However, in the last 6 months I have done well using the principles of the first half of the book. IF the first half is that good, the second half about how to preserve your wealth will be amazing. Very few people are ready and will therefore survive.... just as it was in '29 and in earlier crashes.
Rating: Summary: Thorough and Informative Review: I could not (and did not) put this book down. Up at 6:00 a.m. to bed @ 4:00 a.m. the following morning. Thoroughly engaging. Detailed explanations of and convincing arguments supporting the Elliott Wave Theory. I found Mr. Prechter's views (and knowledge) regarding the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Government and Corporate America especially interesting. Lots of little known and interesting tid-bit's about our nations economic and political past. Good down to earth advice follows in the second half (Book 2) of the book summarized in the "Do's" and "Don'ts" for those who want to ensure their survival and ultimate prosperity. Highly recommended!!!
Rating: Summary: Interesting analysis Review: I felt this book is excellent in the sense that it gets you to think about the conclusions and opinions you have come to regarding the world's largest economy.
What Pretcher clearly identifies in his text is the major problem facing the US economy, namely a huge debt load that is bearing down upon it. However it must be said that his conclusions leave something to be desired because they are based more on the traditional Kondrattief cycle theory as apposed to elliot wave anyalysis. Moroever many well respected wave analysts completely disagree with Precther's prognosis for the markets.
Anybody that believes the US dollar is about to embark on a major bull market with 1 trillion dollar anual budget deficits (when Social Security raiding and off budget expenses such as the war are taken into account) and a current account deficit well over 500 billion dollars a year is in dream land! Pretcher also fails to acknowledge that his theory of deflation based upon a crippling debt load as leading inveitably to deflation should review the excellent work "when money dies". This work charts the Weimar Republics hyperinflationary collapse in the face of large gov and private debt.
In conclusion makes you think but completely wrong and flawed anaylsis as the US as world resevr currency is in a perfect position to hyperinflate despite a large well developed Bond market as they have been passified by a steep yiel;d curve and extended carry trade.
Rating: Summary: Prechter's Easiest to Read and Understand yet... Review: I have also followed Prechter for many years and truly believe Elliott Wave Theory has merit. Emotionally driven financial markets are not random, they do follow a pattern (although it is a chaotic one). Although Elliott Wave Theory has merit, making money with it isn't easy, but its the best tool I've found. You must really study it, and have discipline and effective money management skills (read Tharpe for that). But regarding this book, Prector makes more powerful "fundamental" arguments than I have ever seen him make. You don't have to be an Elliotician or technician to understand and appreciate these arguments. You don't really need to know/learn the Elliott Wave Theory to get a LOT out of this book. He provides some really good answers to the "what do I do with..." questions, and provides many references to research for different investments, products, and services. Don't approach it as a "get rich quick" book and you won't be disappointed. Its also not an advanced or detailed book on the theory (but he makes plenty of references to those books in this one for those who want to learn more). For those that really understand Elliott but have never had much to give to the friends and family that they could ever hope to understand, this is the book for them (followed by "Precter's Perspective," but "Conquer..." is much better and current).I think he's already been proven to be right, but it certainly won't be much longer before we know for sure.
Rating: Summary: Worth reading to save what is left of your porfolio Review: I just recently read "Conquer the Crash" and think that EVERY single person with money in equities or mutual funds should read this ASAP! I recently switched my equity funds from equity to money market, as I could not stand to lose any more money! [Putting distance between me and] my financial advisor and the whole investment community! SAVE YOUR MONEY WHILE YOU CAN!!! READ THIS BOOK!!!
Rating: Summary: Interesting but... Review: I like Prechter because he's an interesting, unconventional thinker. But... I want to be careful and fair... doesn't his track record leave quite a bit to be desired? At one time (I think the early 80's), I've read or heard he did well with his market predictions. But, not sure, didn't he get the 87 crash wrong in the sense that the market quickly recovered and that would've been the opportunity of a lifetime to buy? And, hasn't he's been bearish though another great opportunity, the incredible bull market of the latter 90's? Finally, here we are in mid 2004, with Gold holding _above_ $400, the stock averages within spitting distance of their old highs, and the fed likely to raise interest rates because of the economic recovery (along with job creation) to keep inflation in check. It just seems like Elliot Wave strings you along... there're always unlikely alternate counts and unlikely alternates to those that make you question why the unlikely of the unlikely seem to happen so often. I'm not trying to bash; would actually prefer to be more positive; but am simply expressing an honest dissapointment.
Rating: Summary: Too Extreme Review: I liked a lot of what the author had to say. Lots of compelling arguments and graphs backed up with some historical facts. Very timely and useful book too. I didn't like the constant references to wave theory and when the author would just ramble on excessively about doom and gloom. It's a bit over done and could scare the uneducated into doing some foolish things with their money/assets if the author is wrong. Shilling, on deflation is a much better book with better predictions and more economics/theorie to back up claims that are made. Shilling had the bond rate history and short term rate history that I was looking for, and some other stats that are hard to find. This is a good book, but take it with a grain of salt, and do additional reading to put the info into perspective. You'll think twice about what the fed does/says after reading this.
Rating: Summary: Interesting, but possibly extremist Review: I read this book last night and found it to be an interesting but possibly extremist view of what could unfold in the years to come. Yes, it could happen, but given the structural changes that have occurred in our financial system since the Great Depression, I do not believe that what he describes would come with any shiftness, but rather could amount to a long, gradual deterioration, as happened in Japan. My personal opinion is that if you subscribe to his theories, rather than betting the farm on them (as investors did with the "New Economy" for example), your best bet may be to hedge your portfolio by allocating a percentage of your holdings to Prechter's recommendations, for example, 1% for each year of your life (eg, 30% for a 30 year old, 40% for a 40 year old, etc.). This way, at least you will be partially protected if Prechter is right, but if he is wrong (or early), you can still participate in any upside appreciation by investing the remainder of your portfolio as you normally would. This is just prudent money management anyhow. Point being, he makes an interesting case, but he is also running a business, and so I think you have to take what he says with grain of salt - nearly every page on the man's website is trying to sell you some book, newsletter, video, etc. Given the recent market drop and fear that presently permiates the market, it is very tempting to believe that he is an "I told you so" guru, just as it was tempting to believe that the "New Economy" was going to change the world. Bottom line, use your head when reading this book and take it for what it is. If you read between the lines, basically what he's telling you is to act sensibly anyhow: don't get a mortgage that you can't afford, don't buy an overly priced house, don't bet it all on stocks, etc.
|