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Practical Speculation

Practical Speculation

List Price: $29.95
Your Price: $19.77
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 4 stars
Summary: A brave and honest book, a must read!
Review: I am not keen on investment books, I am after all a corporate lawyer who is more interested in books on financial products (e.g. derivatives). I bought this book by chance because I had a long-haul flight, and the only reason I haven't given this book the full five stars is because it contained chapters that were not relevant to my niche.

Having said this, I want to give the book five stars for the author's (i.e. Niederhoffer) courage to mention his mistakes in the past, and to reproduce some of the hate e-mails in this book (that I personally found immature and of low intellect) which set the tone for the book. The book is without doubt controversial, and this is what makes the book such a fun and captivating read. It is a saucy book that gives a good overview of the main investment techniques and explains the latter in such a way that anyone without a background in the financial markets will easily understand. The use of analogies, anecdotes, and drawing on the authors own experience separates this book on investment from other texts I have come across (but never really bothered to read) that can only be described as dry and dull.

If you disagree with the authors, that is fine, I don't think the authors were looking for universal acceptance of their views, but it gives you food for thought and challenges convention. That is why I simply cannot understand why people write off Niederhoffer for everything he does including his book and column ever since his fund closed in 1997. Does anybody remember John Meriwether? No? Well, he was the founder of LTCM, almost brought down the global financial system, and managed to lose several billion in the last heydays of LTCM...well, he made a mistake, is respected on Wall Street, is one of my heroes and has already set up a new hedge fund. Niederhoffer made a mistake, but that has nothing to do with this book. This book incorporates his knowledge pre-1997, and what he has learned post-1997, it is a worthwhile read, and I salute Niederhoffer for his bravery in writing this controversial book.

What I would I gained from reading this book are manyfold, including seeing the financial markets in a completely different way (see the parallels drawn between science and the market), the connection between the world we live in and the financial markets (e.g. manifestations of corporate hubris) and just a fun book to read. This book is essential.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: $120000000 tuition fee paid on your behalf by Niederhoffer
Review: This is literally the cost of the wisdom in this book.

Mr.Niederhoffer is back after his fund with $120 million under management,rated the best for 12 consecutive years,lost big and was forced to close in 97.
He`s back explaining what went wrong and how to avoid the mistakes he himself committed before learning (the expensive way)what not to do.

It`s hard for a small fish like myself who lost his small stake (relatively speaking) few times in his years of ignorance to recommend this book since,I consider it a hidden treasure no one has the right to benefit from in this cut throat business without paying at least the tuition fee I and my fellow traders paid switching from one losing system to the next.

This said,Do you accept the gift?
This book is the closest thing to a free lunch on wall street.

The best investment ideas are found in the most unlikely places.
Isn`t Practical speculation,a book written by a hedge fund manager who lost everything and mortgaged his house, an unlikely place to find great investment ideas? Well,think again.
Victor Niederhoffer is imho the world`s best trader.

Now,here`s the man`s REAL TIME track record that you can verify for yourself:
In March 2003,Niederhoffer was THE ONLY bullish trader I know of.
He published his opinion in a very insightful column on MSN -why the market should go up 19%? - while the Prechters,Abelsons and the other trend followers of the world were talking about a 10 year bear mkt and a crash that only Mr.Prechter can help us conquer.

Mr.Niederhoffer`s prediction was not contingent on any break of a trendline or a moving average crossover or a resistance level breakout like most technicians tell you to save face in case their prediction goes astray as it usually does.
No sir,his prediction was a straightforward 19% no strings attached.

At the date of this review,16th of july,the market is up more than 15% from the date the article was published.Now my friend,this is a real time prediction not a retrospective one (I told you so type).

In his short term swing trading using the VIC (a variation from the volatility index)and the stock/bond ration,he caught 960 dow points out of 1050 on 12 trades.
Experienced traders know that predicting reversals in the long term let alone the short term is the hardest task for a trader and that the probabilty of achieving such endeavour by chance variation alone is nil.

In fact,most of the successful hedge fund managers were at one point or another either his students or his employees.

If you already missed the 15%+ return in 3 months or the 900+ dow points, cut your losses short like good traders do and BUY THIS BOOK.
There are two things that experienced traders and squash players of this world do not want: a)being on the other side of Niederhoffer`s trades like the abelsons of 2003.
b)having to return a Niederhoffer`s backhand like the khans of the 70s.
While I was never locked in a squash court with Niedrhoffer,I found myself unknowingly on the other side of one of his IBM trades last year at the expense of my trading account.

Last word of advice,do not let Niederhoffer`s humility fool you.He`s not crawling back slowly up the stairs as he likes to say,he is taking monster steps that neither you or I are capable of taking yet.
Like all the greats,he only talks about his losses and hardly mentions his wins.
If you follow his writings,predictions and recommendations as closely as I do you would quickly realize that the misses don`t amount to more than a very small percentage of the hits.

Laurel Kenner on the other hand is the most shortchanged writer in history.Co-authoring a book with a giant like Niederhoffer is not an easy task.To her credit,her writings prior to joining Niederhoffer at MSN showed a great understanding of the financial mkts and contrarian views on different aspects of speculation (a trait you can`t do without as a trader).

My only minor disappointment was the lack of mention of Livermore.In my years of ignorance I traded using Livermore`s methods and was wiped out few times before realizing that I was feeding the system with my hard earned money by placing mkt orders and only buying on up days and new highs a la Livermore.
Mr.Livermore in my opinion disseminated more ill founded wisdom than Graham since his words became cliches in all brokerage ofices.

On a final note,whether you buy this book or not won`t affect my wealth in anyway.To those reviewers with the 1 star rating:IF I CAN ONLY TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF YOUR TRADES!!!
SO,IGNORE THIS REVIEW AND THE BOOK AT YOUR OWN EXPENSE

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Every investor should read something by Niederhoffer
Review: Similar to his other book Education of a Speculator, this book is very interesting and covers a lot of ground.

VN is a very original thinker and has a unique perspective, while usually capable of sufficient rigour.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Fun book.
Review: This is an investment book for people who like to explore different ideas and enjoy seeing things from a different point of view. One of the ideas that Vic drives home is that most (all?) of what is said in the press about markets is utter nonsense. He discusses the concept of "the meme", were non-objective ideas spread throughout the population like a virus and create their own reality. (Perhaps this is a new word for an old idea that is now supercharged due to technology. See "the crowd" and "popular delusions..") This in and of itself is a valuable lesson.

I noted two big themes in the book: First is the importance of testing ideas. The concept that, "Anything that can be tested should be tested" is a big one. The second theme is that if you live in fear and don't take risks, you can't get the rewards of life. The book provides many examples of both of these ideas.

The book also contains many good stories. In fact, the story of Vic's fall and comeback was one of my favorite parts of the book. It is a story of courage and heroism that I found to be inspiring.

I may not agree with everything Vic writes, but i did find this to be a very enjoyable and worthwile book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A MUST READ
Review: This book is a must read for thinking traders. It broadens
the horizons of the mind. Sections on commentators who get
stuck in a mindset and do not search for the whole truth are a
reminder to NOT get caught in the same trap. Buy this
book and Vic's "Education of a Speculator" also.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Best to skip this and buy Education of a Speculator
Review: Niederhoffers book has some use, in that it suggests that the reader understand statistics, before they make generalisations about the market.

I truly enjoyed his first book, but it seems he has totally changed since his downfall in 97. He seems to have totally changed in charachter, and has become one of those awful people who hate everyone who is more successful than them. He launches attacks on Buffet, Graham, Ableson, and Greenspan, and then goes on to blame them for the September 11 attacks, which is just wacky.

He also writes a crazy chapter about how the FDA should be abolished, which comes off as the rantings of a mad man. This is totally off the subject of the book.

To top this off, I saw Niederhoffer and Kenner at an analysts meeting in New York, giving a speech. Niederhoffer, who is a very strange man, spent his time telling the audience to look at Kenner's (a 60 something year old woman)legs. While she played showtunes on a piano. Afterwards, I spoke to Kenner for about 5 minutes, and learned she has absolutely no knowledge of markets at all, she dosent even understand the most basic concepts like time value of money.

Niederhoffers arrogance and jealousy are the most noticable things in this book. Kenner seems awfully boastful also, for someone who's only achievement seems to be having been involved in this book.

Overall I would recommend avoiding this book, but I still strongly recommend Niederhoffers first book, The Education of a Speculator, which is like a modern day Reminisces of a Stock Operator.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: a classic trading book
Review: vic and laurel have really outdone themselves. GREAT BOOK GUYS. this book will change the way you look at the market and trade. this is not a book that will show you step by step what to do in the market. if you need a book like that you are missing the whole point of trading. No trading technique works all the time. this is where this book comes in. it is a guide to help you think for yourself and to statiscally test new trading ideas in our ever changing markets.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Refreshing view of the speculation in the stocks
Review: Ms. Kenner and her assistant Mr. Nearderhopper penned a brilliant
work of deep analysis, peppered with nuggets of unusually keen insights into speculation. This book goes beyond simple number crunching and touches that evasive element of speculation: the unknowables. Many traders seek the holly grail of speculation with too-precise tools of statistics and other pseudo-scientific methods. This books puts into perspective the art of analyzing market behavior. Ms. Kenner's experience as a writer shines thru in elegant sentences and coherent paragraphs. It seems as if her assistant co-author mainly helped with the number crunching parts, and the intriguing story about meme eating away everyone's lunch while the world is asleep at the wheel. Nevertheless, it's worth reading. There are many books on trading, and most are nothing more than an exercise in data fitting. This book has substance for the sophisticated reader.
The books is difficult to follow sometimes, as if the authors were confused themselves on certain subjects; however, that is quite understandable given the escaping nature of speculation. For example, the part about interlocking gears, real estate, business cycles, and stocks is simply disproved if you look at the past few years. One thing sorely lacking from this excellent book is careful risk management. Without that ingredient, no speculator will survive in this game, no matter how many doubles he can hit. I'm not sure if the authors know this unavoidable fact as well as they know statistical applications. Each chapter is fairly self-contained, so you can pick up and read them in any order.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: wife of a stock speculator
Review: My husband trades for a living. For many years now I have been in the dark, trying to understand what it is he does. Now it is very clear. I found this book to be very helpful in my understanding of this profession. Now I understand that I did not marry a gambler, which has saved our marriage.(HA-HA)

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Best book for the responsible investor
Review: Perhaps the best book ever written for someone trying to establish their own views and beliefs on the markets. If you note the list of people reviewing this book, it is like a who's who of ground breaking work on the markets. Jon Markman, Yale Hircsh, Dr. Steenbab all are on the cutting edge of practical market writing. If you write this off as the authors simply being a "Wall Street insider" you are mistaken. Further, if you let the high accolades of Victor Niederhoffer's brilliance, intimidate you from buying the book., you couldn't be more wrong. If you are just beginning your studies of the market, or if you are a "tried and true wall street insider", there are many lessons to learn.

I am far removed from Wall Street, and Indiana boy just beginning my "investment career", without a business degree from a esteemed college. Yet found this book inspiring and full of wonderful suggestions on how to approach the markets.

My best sentence summary of this book: "It leads you to personal responsibility for your investments".

You learn of Victor's own dramatic poignant personal acceptance of such responsibility. From his meteoric rise to top of the hedge fund world to his fall, in 1997, only to reinvent himself to make a return. Few have had a more spectacular fall from grace. He admits mistakes and clearly exposes an easy target for his critics. However, I found this most endearing. He gladly accepts the criticism of others more enlightened, to teach his mentors a few lessons. He explains how to avoid being blinded by success, if you are fortunate enough to achieve it. And how to accept the evitable falls as being part of the duty of a capitalist progressive, trying to achieve wealth through acceptance of risk

It clearly shows why others would prefer that you abdicate responsibility. Exposes a journalist with a hidden political agenda, to "balance" capitalistic thrust of the markets. Exposes writers with sole interest of getting most eyes to pay for their latest view. Some blatantly ride the latest fad. Others play on emotions of fear and greed. All with promises of a treasure map to the markets, for the price of their advice.

But perhaps most enriching are the numerous and brilliant ideas on how to get an edge. Not promises of wealth, but an edge. Further, he shows how these "edges" are bound to disappear as markets learn and reacts to them. Victor and Laurel call this the "ever changing cycles" of the market.

Laurel and Vic, however, must be commended for making their method, the "scientific method", easy to understand and interesting to read. They leave it, however, for you and your professors to take the responsibility to learn the nuances of perfecting the statistical method. But give you the overview on how to successfully apply it. The focus is on how to creatively apply this method to the markets. Their narrative is so interesting their presentation of their discovery process, was inspiring to me to develop several of my own statistical indicators. The practical applications for both the billion dollar hedge funds and the few thousand IRA investors are very exciting. This I suspect is the true motivation for Victor writing the book. He had to share his excitement. As the low price and clear time put into it cannot justify the opportunity cost to him. If there was a weakness in the book, it was that after explaining the "ever changing cycle" and power of the method, it seemed clear that Victor was not giving away the shop. Leaving perhaps some of the most potent and recent of his arsenal to himself. Not wanting to hasten the cycle along. Yet, this could be considered it strongest point compared to the books competitors. As they explain the get rich quick authors, either never actually use their methods or only expose their method after they intuitively realize the cycle is about to change. But leave their readers clueless of such cycles. Yet, it is clear that Victor both has invested recently using these indicators and expects to use them in the near future. Perhaps this also explains the low marketing budget. As this clearly is the best investment book you never heard of.

Finally, I must make a comment about chapter 11 on Value Line. This chapter alone is worth the book, and I believe can make or break a investor's career.


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