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Practical Speculation

Practical Speculation

List Price: $29.95
Your Price: $19.77
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 3 stars
Summary: A Few Pearls but Mostly Filler
Review: I was looking forward to this book after having enjoyed Niederhoffer's first, but ultimately I found this one lacking.

The read got off to a good start. The tone was not as cocky as the first book, which made it more readable and enjoyable. By about page 150 or so, I started to get the idea that there was precious little here. I was looking for some heavy statistical testing of interesting market strategies. For all the horn blowing, there were very few statistics and very few ideas. The ones I took away were: invest on the swing in the VIX; and look for companies with decreasing inventories, decreasing shares outstanding (buybacks) and decreasing A/R ledgers. The only other chapter of interest was the history behind the Value Line timeliest 100 stocks and their performance over time.

I enjoy reading about Victor's father. I mean that sincerely. Arthur Niederhoffer sounds like a truly wise and wonderful man. It's moving to read his excerpts here, and of his son's relationship and feelings for his dad. May we all be so blessed with great fathers.

There are interesting discussions on the FDA and how it adversely affects health care in this country; and modern management methods which are both touchy-feely and authoritarian at the same time. Good bits, but tangential to market speculation.

The rest of the book covered baseball, fishing, horseracing, racquetball, checkers; a few gratuitous digs at Warren Buffet and David Tice, and a few well-earned digs at Alan Greenspan. The correlations between baseball strategy and market strategy were not convincingly explored statistically or causally and all in all I missed the point. This just didn't seem serious. It seemed like filler. In fact most of the book (except the bits mentioned above) seemed like so much fluff.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: The Best Return On Invested Capital Available
Review: If you come to this book hoping to find support for your preconceived notions, and leave it in a huff, or filled with rancor, recriminations, teeth gnashing, and fury - thank you. You are doomed to contribute your capital to those who read, absorb, and apply the many lessons in this book. You will not hear from many of the predators, as they are too busy eating your lunch with the methods (and manner of thinking) described herein.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Interesting, but ultimately disappointing...
Review: In reviewing the reviews of this book, it seems like the reaction is either love or hate. I find myself in the middle. While there are some serious flaws in this book, it does have some useful insights, which, if successfully applied, could easily justify its purchase. All-in-all, however, I found it a disappointing follow-up to the much better "Education of a Speculator."

Some of the flaws include a rather muddled writing style which ranges from the 1st to 3rd person. Also, there is a very strained attempt to blame the recent bear market on a malicious "meme" rather than simply the bursting of a speculative bubble. It seems like the authors have a sort of Peter Pan philosophy where if we only had held hands and said "I believe" to each other, stocks could have flown forever.

In an attempt to discourage conventional thinking (I suppose), the authors attack the work and deed of various personages including Abelson, Greenspan, Buffett and Graham. While the characterization of Abelson as being far too bearish for too long is certainly apt (although rather merciless considering the authors' record), the chapter on Graham is deeply flawed and gets far too personal. They never really attack Buffett head on, but imply that he's a rather unsophisticated (but, somehow immensely successful) member of the meme team that brought down the market. The attack on Greenspan gets really bizarre, blaming him not just for bringing down the market, but the World Trade Center as well. These ad hominem attacks are totally inappropriate in a book such as this. The authors continually seem to be lashing out as part of their deep denial that they were wrong in believing in the never-ending New Era bull market.

Also interlaced in the book is a theme that growth investing is inherently superior to value investing. The authors never give any real support for this assertion - they try to prop it up mainly by disparaging Graham and Buffett. Based on the many studies I've seen and my own experience, I would submit that they are completely wrong on this point.

Their attack on technical analysis, however, is right on the mark. Ironically, this is the part that will probably most upset the speculators lured in by the title.

Some of the statistical work is useful. It brings a sorely needed aspect of science to this area (as did Ed of Spec) - most books on investing/speculation skip statistics altogether. However, much is made of relationships where the r2 is in the neighborhood of 1%. While these relationships may be statistically significant, they are practically useless for actually making money.

Ironically, I actually felt that the best and most useful part of the book was on fundamental analysis. The studies (by others) that are discussed relating to changes in inventories, accounts receivable, etc. are something that I can use and hopefully profit from.

To give the book its due, it is a reasonably good and entertaining read. The authors draw on many ideas and sources to make their points, such as they are. Their take on the market is unusual, eclectic and thought-provoking. The point that they repeatedly try to make, with uneven success, that the scientific method should rule the decision-making process, is an extremely important one. Considering how many totally worthless books on investing/speculating there are, I think the weak competition benefits this one enough to earn it 3.5 stars.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Drum roll please . . .
Review: And now for something completely different . . . we have Practical Speculation!

I've read gobs of financial/market/investing books over the past several years and this is only the second one that moved me to offer a written review. This tome isn't for everyone (what book is?). If you're looking for yet another rehash of the Asset Allocation, RTM, Passive vs Active, "sure fire stock picking" type of topical writing that dominates this particular niche, look elsewhere. The Spec Duo has produced something that goes beyond all that. Or perhaps I should say WAY beyond all that? We've all heard a lot of talk about the supposed benefits of thinking outside of the box; easier said then done, isn't it? However, if you're looking for a few paradigm stretching examples to inspire the old gray matter, some can be found between the covers of this book.

The chapters are not continuous, but rather appeared (at least to me) as a series of sort of photo flash moments that captured certain events or ideas and subjected them to incisively productive scrutiny. Opening with "The Meme," the reader is presented with a chronicle of the sort of deeply personal thoughts and fears we may all have experienced (for different reasons) and yet been very reluctant to expose in detail. Especially to a wide, unknown audience. Writing this book took courage, conviction, and no doubt, a willingness to weather criticism for one's beliefs. Perhaps the authors inherited these fine traits? As only one example, Laurel's brief but touching anecdote from her father's career suggests this may be the case.

To make an issue here, as some have, of Victor's prior loss of money appears to me as a straw man type of distraction. Winners and losers are what the great game is all about. Besides, I rather hear the very significant lessons learned by someone who has experienced fiscal loss beyond what most of us could even comprehend, as opposed to the prognostications of an untested character who hasn't danced in the fires of high risk/return, been badly burned, and lived to tell about it.

Lastly, as most active investors are aware, things have changed. The arterial bleeding my have stopped for the moment, but can anyone be sure the patient is on the road to recovery? Reading this book may help you to productively redeploy your forces for the coming battles, and perhaps gain a bit of the edge that's needed in a volatile, sideways market. One thing is for certain, Vic and Laurel are a lot more substantive and entertaining than the endless "I Love Lucy" emulating reruns played out on CNBC.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Vic's eulogy or just getting old!
Review: Vic attempts to rationalize his views (and maybe his not so rational ideas). This sounds like Vic's eulogy for himself!
Vic makes a very good point about Robert J. Shiller and his idiotic (for lack of a better word) academic ideas.
However it seems Vic himself is becoming outdated. Vic's Statistical ideas and academic background are still in the 60s. His ideas of the markets have become archaic to some extend. There is a lot of finger pointing. Not as enjoyable as his first book. His first book education of a speculator was a much more interesting book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A must read book for everyone interested in business
Review: Victor Niederhoffer is a man who leads an examined life.
Few businessmen have had the courage and intelligence to examine the world of business and life in the same critical and objective way that Mr. Niederhoffer has. He has experienced highs (spectacular successes) and lows (failures) and has learned (in a documented and scientific way) from everything. It is very rare to find a person that can legitimately claim excellence in both the intellectual and the practical spheres of life. This book gives insight into the way he thinks and I cannot recommend it too highly. I do not know Laurel Kenner too well, but judging from the high level of success of many of Mr. Niederhoffer's past and present associates, I am confident that she too is of a very high caliber.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Practical advice in unpractical times
Review: One of the best investment books I've ever read. These two really know their stuff when it comes to the markets. I recommend that anyone who is seriously considering taking on the market read this book first. Vic and Laurel dismantle many commonly held beliefs in the trading community. They also delve into areas related to trading and demonstrate how skillful investors can gain an edge by understanding these topics.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: A little better than his first book, but just so little
Review: Victor really has his own charm as a brilliant "turnaround" trader, or at least a would be with his successful prediction of the stock market so far this year. (He belongs to the rare breed that predicted a rise in the stock market in 2003). He is certainly talented with his critical mind, backed by his educational training as a genuine scholar in statistics. The problem is: Such qualities do not guarantee the output of an intersting and productive "trading" book.

Two years ago on Amazon, I put very harsh comment on his first book "The Art of speculation". I rated it one star because I felt cheated to pay for a trading book which had a 90% ego centric content, talking all the time about his father, hobbies and non trading side of life....This book, "Practical Speculation", is certainly much more relevant. However, as a trader and a trading book lover, I am so disappointed to find it not so practical. The only thing I can recall after reading it is that it stresses on the importance "to be on guard against the propaganda of analysts, media, news and have a scientific mind on everything, that everything should be tested and proved before you believe it, in particular against the many technical analysis tools and gurus." However, isnt that a prerequisite for the survival of any trader preached in almost every other trading book and isnt that a failure in the authors' part in making it so boring and dull with 350+ pages?

p.s. The authors used the first 14 pages to recap how they, particularly Victor, had been ridiculed after his failure in 1997. That's the most interesting part of the whole book and you can tell Victor will certainly come back after you read that. I just feel sorry for those who have bought the book for going through that part in a book store, like my stupid self.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Friggin guy's fund went into receivership when Russia defaul
Review: ted in '98. Is this the first thing he mentions in this book? who would read anything he writes? I know I wouldn't.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Intellectual Investment Entertainment
Review: Read this if you perused the scathing reviews at the beginning!

I've read a number of investment books. Most offer logical, statistical, ideological support for the author's paradigm - all with the presumption of profit to the reader. Most lack the personality and love-of-life that suffuses Vic and Laurel's book. Practical Speculation offers no false hopes of easy formulae for wealth, nor how-to recipes thereof.

The "Spec Duo" reaches into rare academic and athletic experience with humility and apropos self-deprication, and exposes the human basis of an extraordinary speculator.

If you have learned enough to know that there are no simple solutions to the paradox of the market, you will find this book insightful, humorous, and engaging. Highly recommended!


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