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Practical Speculation

Practical Speculation

List Price: $29.95
Your Price: $19.77
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: For traders willing to work at it
Review: If you are a trader, this book is a must. Niederhoffer and Kenner make many observations about successful investing and trading strategies. But the main crux of the book is that any strategy should be verifiable and subject to testing; i.e., the scientific method.

For too long the investment landscape has been populated by those repeating old tales and advocating other "surefire" techniques that escape any accountability. The authors call these people out with devestating effect. And they have the facts to prove their case.

For those willing to ask tough questions of themselves, and those that can honestly reflect on their personal trading experiences, this book will provide meals for a lifetime.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: An absolutely worthless book
Review: Stop right now and banish all thoughts of spending any of your valuable time reading this book.

A hodgepodge collection of useless scraps stuck together for the soul purpose of filling a book and getting your money!

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Very long on words; very short on actionable advice
Review: This book gives meaning to the word "filler." This 390 page book could have been boiled down to about 40-50 pages, perhaps less. But instead the authors filled it with gimmicky, extraneous filler to get to their point, which is ultimately not very prescriptively helpful. The authors arguably -- and I am not even sure of that -- succeed in getting investors to doubt certain pieces of conventional wisdom. But all they do is debunk. The whole second half of the book was meant to be constructive, to give investors real information that you can use. But when you get down to it, there is scarce little there. At bottom, this was a really annoying read.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Self-absorbed, Brooding and Overtly Obvious
Review: If you want to read chapter upon chapter, of self-obsessed, guilt-ridden, negative anti-establishment diatribe, buy this book. Vic will tell you in each and every chapter about his Harvard education, his PhD, his champion squash career and the suffering he endured after his hedge fund tanked. Laurel will remind you of her time at Bloomberg and CNBC and how they just didn't get her. They mock their critics and bash whoever they can in a swirl of negativity. The self-obsessed tone is really overbearing. This book almost appears like an attempt at therapy for them.

Now, What about the advice on investing? They perform statistical studies on markets to create linear regression lines of scatter plots that resemble a shotgun pattern (ex Fig 3-1, 13-4). The correlation is meaningless, but congrats ... you prove you can crunch numbers. Some of the other gems; don't trust the media because they are biased, baseball home runs and DJIA correlation, pharmaceutical companies are hard to value, cash flow statements are key, increases in inventories or A/R are bad, P/E's are meaningless. Give me a break! From Obvious to Out-there! How about the tenet that Alan Greenspan caused the Sept 11th attacks! (they really proposed this...).

This book includes either blatantly obvious theories or completely hairbrained concepts. It focuses way too much on self-absorbed introspection for me. Mr. Edelston, if I could find my receipt I would take you up on your $30 refund anyday!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A Truly Gargantuan Perspective on Trading
Review: Richard Zeckhauser calls the book a Rabelaisian romp down Wall Street. And he's right. Niederhoffer and Kenner offer a truly Gargantuan perspective on the markets and the typical market crook's arguments.

Take Niederhoffer and Kenner's discussion of Benjamin Graham as an example. It takes the authors one sentence (in numbers: 1 sentence) to explain Value Investing. Hahaha! There must be lots of filler matierial in Graham's 700-page volume on the subject. Hahaha!

Another highlight is the authors' discussion of technical analysis. "Statistics" proves that all technical Indicators except the VIX are invalid. Hahaha! For the VIX, the authors describe a "statistically valid" trading system. Backtesting reaches to 1997. Hahaha-stop it-it's too much-hahaha. The system went short on April 11, 2003, when the S&P was at 890. Today, the S&P is at 1125 and the system is still short, waiting for that statistically valid 3% profit.

I enjoyed this book immensely and I still wake up occasionally chuckling about a point in it. Practical Speculation should be required reading for everybody with an interest in speculation. If its ideas seem plausible to you, you just might not have what it takes to speculate successfully.

Afterthought. Why do I give the book 5 stars? I read it as a satirical warning against financial propaganda. Niederhoffer even lists techniques for propaganda: name-calling, glittering generality, transfer, testimonial, plain folks, card stacking, and bandwagon; yet, Practical Speculation is full of these techniques. To illustrate, name-calling and glittering generality debase Graham, card stacking touts the VIX system. But my favorite is the authors' use of plain folks: the book is written by "Vic", a father of six struggling to pay the bills. Hahaha! I love satire and Practical Speculation is right up there with Gargantua and Don Quijote. 5 stars.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Brilliant! Intelligent and well written
Review: The breadth of coverage in this book is enormous. ALL of the popular methods of trading are covered in this book. It's impossible that anyone who follows the stock market and makes trades won't find their method of trading shown in this book, and then analyzed. The authors apply the scientific method to every trading strategy. I use the scientific method in many parts of my life. But when i read Niederhoffer's and Kenner's book, I realized i wasn't applying it to investing! I wasn't making trades rationally, just emotionally.
The book is very popular, and has great reviews. It's an intelligent book, so it has to be read thoughtfully. And it won't hand you the winning stock of 2004. Though it will teach you how to invest your money intelligently for a lifetime.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Homebrew speculation yourself
Review: How to practice speculation for yourself. The odds are stacked against the average individual and there is much misdirection offered as sage advice. Niederhoffer and Kenner (N/K) offer a debunking of the conventional wisdom designed to separate one from his money. Such a valuable service cannot be overestimated. N/K challenge the value proposition, the arms index, technical analysis and perma-bear attitudes. They provide a framework (the scientific method supported by statistical analysis) as a tonic for the bad advice. They mention several fruits of their research and other worthwhile investing ideas from other's financial research. I was able to glean many other interesting books to read from the references listed in this book.

Missing from this book is the attitude that made Niederhoffer's first book difficult to enjoy. He told us how successful he was, but not how to replicate that success. In this effort, he endeavors to "pull back the curtain" and give a sense of how he operates, complete with window into his self-doubts.

When I review a book, I always reflect and attempt to determine whether it was worthy to have bought and then invested the time to read the book. I feel as good about my investment in this book as have in any financial book in a long time. I highly recommend it for anyone that seeks above average returns.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Some valuable insights from one of the best in the game
Review: In reading any book on trading the markets, the obvious goal is to gain some knowledge that will help you improve your trading or investing. This book achieves that on several fronts. Consider the core themes - take a scientific approach to your trading and forget about all the hocus-pocus that is constantly being thrown at you (charting, waves, etc). You'll already be ahead of the game if you just adhere to some of his trading guidelines in chapter 14. Niederhoffer is not your average bear, or should I say bull, as he seems to have a bias to the long side... as does the market. He had unparalleled success until he took a knockout punch in 1997, a humbling setback from which he was wise enough to learn. In Practical Speculation there is wisdom aplenty for all earnest students of the market.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Impressive insight that challenges the mainstream
Review: One of the few investment books that truly has something for everyone, exceptional journey that cannot help but to expand the readers perception of the financial markets. A veritable cornucopia of lessons, analogies and ideas, one of those rare gems in that every time you read this you discover more pearls.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Practical Speculation
Review: In this book on practical investing anyone with money in mutual funds, bonds, or stocks will discover how they have been swindled by their own dreams of getting rich in financial products; getting rich without working at it I mean.

It is not only our pipe dreams about rich retirement and windfall profits that cause us to make mistakes with money; it is the way the financial markets work that compounds the adverse effect of our dreams.

Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner have each devoted themselves to a career in speculation, participating as speculators and investors, and as analysts of market prices. There have been hundreds of books published on trading and investing and many on speculation; thousands more on economics. I own presently over 200 such books. Most of these are worthless, are pipe dreams written by professional writers who have never proven their success with speculation, only proven they can write books. An acquaintance of mine who has been speculating for over 30 years told me that the writers on trading can write but they cannot trade. It is no wonder the public side of the market has lost money - they have been following the wrong literature.

The literature of financial enlightenment is finally here. It is this book "Practical Speculation."

Why is it not on the best seller list of financial literature? In my view this is because it is on practical ideas, on pragmatism, and reality. It is not about dreams, hopes, visions of unearned wealth. This books tells much about how investors are taken for a ride by Wall Street mechanisms and propaganda. No wonder it is not popular with dream publishers, astrology believers, hope peddlers, and most of all by the market participants who feed on the misinformation the public is exposed to.

If you are looking for a secure financial future based on reality rather than dreams, on practical methods rather than schemes, on what works for investors rather than on what works for the funds, on what works for stock manipulators, for the propaganda machines on television, the talking heads, the financial industry - if you want what works for you - then buy this book. You will learn how to conserve capital, invest rationally, and avoid being blind-sided by propaganda and market hype which only serves the interest of Wall Street.

Ken Smith
Seattle
November 10, 2003


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