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Rating: 
Summary: Living with the Unexpected
Review: Living with the Unexpected is an interesting attempt to examine the continuing volcanic emergency on the Caribbean island of Montserrat, which began in 1995, within the twin contexts of the latest developments in the social theory of disasters and sustainable development. Anja Possekel was awarded a doctorate from the University of Hamburg in 1998, and Living with the Unexpected represents a development of ideas contained in her thesis. Following an introductory section, in Chapter 2 the author provides a fine and detailed overview of hazard theory. Some of the material has a familiar ring as the author discusses issues such as: the distinction between hazards and disasters and differing approaches to hazard research. Here a well-known cast list of authors makes an appearance as the author contrasts the approaches adopted by the 'founding fathers' of hazard research (e.g. Burton, Kates and White), with more recent development associated with such authors as Hewitt, Susman, Blaikie, Mitchell and Palm. Since much of this material is probably well known to potential readers, much more severe editing could have been carried out, without any sacrifice in clarity. A welcome innovation is that the author also and for the first time in context of volcanic hazards, examines recent developments in complexity and uncertainty theory and links these to a discussion of chaos. For the present reviewer, this section provided an excellent primer to these increasing prominent themes in disaster theory and of itself would justify library purchase of this volume. Chapter 3, which is devoted to strategic planning in disaster zones, also has a theoretical hue. Again the quality of the reviewing is exemplary and, what is particularly noteworthy, is the careful discussion of both the potentials and possible pitfalls of scenario planning. The latter as many practising hazard analysts can attest are often forgotten. Much has been written about the 1995 eruption of Montserrat, but much of this literature is located in specialised journals and unpublished reports. Anja Possekel is to be congratulated for compiling and editing this material so effectively. Entitled, Montserrat - A Complex System, Chapter 4 first examines Montserrat before the volcanic crisis using notions of certainty and uncertainty as a framework, the author goes on to look at the severe impact of the disaster on the island and, in Chapter 5, outlines various strategies for reconstruction and recovery. A real and welcome innovation of Possekel's work is that her discussion does not conclude at this point, but continues and examines recovery scenarios through a number of workshops attended by both local citizens and decision makers. The author concludes (page 262), that in the context of Montserrat 'resilience is the normative goal of sustainability, whilst sustainability is the process that eventually leads to resilience'. More specifically what us required is a scenario to: 'reduce vulnerability; improve the quality of life, especially with reference to the environment, education, economy and social health care; encourage the partnership between .... individuals, the private sector, NGOs and governments; (and to) blend planning and management'. The author suggest a scenario to achieve these goals, which is acceptable to local people. Unlike many academic texts, I enjoyed reading Living with the Unexpected and, indeed, read most of it in one session. Although probably too expensive for purchase by any but the most affluent academic, Anja Possekel's book is an essential library purchase for institutions of higher education and government departments. It is a ground breaking work of applied scholarship and is highly recommended.
Rating:
Summary: Living with the Unexpected
Review: Living with the Unexpected is an interesting attempt to examine the continuing volcanic emergency on the Caribbean island of Montserrat, which began in 1995, within the twin contexts of the latest developments in the social theory of disasters and sustainable development. Anja Possekel was awarded a doctorate from the University of Hamburg in 1998, and Living with the Unexpected represents a development of ideas contained in her thesis. Following an introductory section, in Chapter 2 the author provides a fine and detailed overview of hazard theory. Some of the material has a familiar ring as the author discusses issues such as: the distinction between hazards and disasters and differing approaches to hazard research. Here a well-known cast list of authors makes an appearance as the author contrasts the approaches adopted by the 'founding fathers' of hazard research (e.g. Burton, Kates and White), with more recent development associated with such authors as Hewitt, Susman, Blaikie, Mitchell and Palm. Since much of this material is probably well known to potential readers, much more severe editing could have been carried out, without any sacrifice in clarity. A welcome innovation is that the author also and for the first time in context of volcanic hazards, examines recent developments in complexity and uncertainty theory and links these to a discussion of chaos. For the present reviewer, this section provided an excellent primer to these increasing prominent themes in disaster theory and of itself would justify library purchase of this volume. Chapter 3, which is devoted to strategic planning in disaster zones, also has a theoretical hue. Again the quality of the reviewing is exemplary and, what is particularly noteworthy, is the careful discussion of both the potentials and possible pitfalls of scenario planning. The latter as many practising hazard analysts can attest are often forgotten. Much has been written about the 1995 eruption of Montserrat, but much of this literature is located in specialised journals and unpublished reports. Anja Possekel is to be congratulated for compiling and editing this material so effectively. Entitled, Montserrat - A Complex System, Chapter 4 first examines Montserrat before the volcanic crisis using notions of certainty and uncertainty as a framework, the author goes on to look at the severe impact of the disaster on the island and, in Chapter 5, outlines various strategies for reconstruction and recovery. A real and welcome innovation of Possekel's work is that her discussion does not conclude at this point, but continues and examines recovery scenarios through a number of workshops attended by both local citizens and decision makers. The author concludes (page 262), that in the context of Montserrat 'resilience is the normative goal of sustainability, whilst sustainability is the process that eventually leads to resilience'. More specifically what us required is a scenario to: 'reduce vulnerability; improve the quality of life, especially with reference to the environment, education, economy and social health care; encourage the partnership between .... individuals, the private sector, NGOs and governments; (and to) blend planning and management'. The author suggest a scenario to achieve these goals, which is acceptable to local people. Unlike many academic texts, I enjoyed reading Living with the Unexpected and, indeed, read most of it in one session. Although probably too expensive for purchase by any but the most affluent academic, Anja Possekel's book is an essential library purchase for institutions of higher education and government departments. It is a ground breaking work of applied scholarship and is highly recommended.
Rating:
Summary: Montserrat's predicament - the comprehensive picture
Review: This carefully written, 287-page hardback book illustrated with many photographs, maps, and charts - a factual book which will appeal particularly to those with a professional, academic, or personal interest in Montserrat's economy, geography, and future development, as well as to people who may be involved in preparation for other potential disasters elsewhere. I don't think it is possible to find a better comprehensive summary of Montserrat's current situation anywhere. It opens with three chapters which set the stage, rather than being focused on Montserrat specifically. These are of more interest to professional geographers, social scientists, or economists. First, it places Montserrat in the context of the United Nations' International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. The second chapter outlines the theoretical basis of the study, discussing the principle of sustainable development, the nature of complexity and uncertainty, the uses of systems theory, and the tasks of hazard management and hazard planning. Chapter 3 discusses strategic planning in general, and the use of the scenarios in this - the heading to this chapter quotes Pericles: "It is less important to foresee the future than to be prepared for it" - a dictum which would serve everyone well who lives in areas at risk of hurricanes, volcanoes, earthquakes, and floods! The fourth chapter gets into the meat of the subject of Montserrat, starting with a comprehensive description of Montserrat. It quotes Davy (John Davy from 1854? The reference is not included in the bibliography): "No island in these seas is bolder in its general aspect, more picturesque and I think I might add without exaggeration, more beautiful in the detail of its scenery - indeed might be tempted to say considering its fortunes, that it has the fatal gift of beauty". The settlement, geological, and ecological maps of Montserrat are excellent, and the summary of Montserrat's history from pre-Columbian times, through a detailed description of the recovery from Hugo, up to the present, is very informative - it includes details and histories of the social, demographic, economic and political structure of Montserrat which are summarized better than I have ever seen elsewhere (where else can you find a diagram of the political structure of Montserrat, with the names and village of origin of every senior civil servant and the location of the 23 departments under the four ministries?). This chapter, like much of the book, also reports the findings of surveys and interviews conducted with a substantial number of people in Montserrat. The chapter gives a blow-by-blow (or should I say flow-by-flow?) account of each stage of the volcanic crisis, with reproductions of every one of the series of risk zone maps produced by the MVO, together with an account of the economic, social, and political upheavals, and several photographs by the author, Doug Darby, David Lea and others. For anyone who wants a review and summary of the events, this must be the best account yet, and it combines on-island and off-island sources in a very useful way - with quotations from interviews with ordinary people, lyrics by Arrow, Cupid, and Rachel Collis, poems, and charts to boot! Chapter 5 sets the scene for the author's "scenarios" methodology in hazard management, and Chapter 6 starts by describing a "dry run" of this methodology using a group in Hamburg, before it gets down to the nitty-gritty, exploring the different development scenarios envisioned for Montserrat by a varied group of Montserratians who were convened for the purpose. The scenarios included such varied vision as Montserrat as "the small Caribbean Jaguar", "Business as usual" (if only that were possible! It is accompanied by a drawing of taxi drivers playing dominoes by the War Memorial) and "Sustainable Development". Political scenarios, including independence or closer integration with the UK are also explored. I'm not a geographer, an economist, or a planner, so I don't feel equipped to pass judgement on this book in any way. I'm left with the feeling that there are some great techniques and great ideas out there, but that the powers that be in Montserrat - and indeed the people as a whole - are just going to "muddle through", and that without deciding on even one of the possible scenarios or road maps outlined in this book, Montserrat will just flounder, economically, politically, socially, and environmentally. If a country does not know where it wants to go, it is unlikely to get there, and I see no sign that there has been much thought to where the country wants to do, all the platitudes of the Strategic Development Plan notwithstanding. A book of this sort does not have the immediacy or focus of something as specific as the Wadge report, but that makes it no less important, but I think it will be relegated to the same dusty shelf as the Wadge report was, and with the same kind of consequences.
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