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Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence

Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence

List Price: $27.00
Your Price: $17.82
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 4 stars
Summary: yes it is.
Review: Methane is a fuel! (contrary to the ignorant criticism of the previous reviewer)... commonly known as natural gas. It is the cleanest of all mineral fuels for several reasons. The ratio of hydrogen to carbon is higher in methane than any other mineral fuel - so that exhaust gas contains more water than carbon dioxide than any other. Also, it contains nearly no sulpher; indeed, natural gas is the most pure fuel extracted from the ground.
And the book is definately worth the read.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Alternatives to denial & defensiveness before massive change
Review: Since the future isn't what it used to be and only seems to get stranger by the day, Peter Schwartz's latest book should be a welcome guide to the "inevitable surprises" ahead. Schwartz isn't just any futurist; he's a kingpin at the Global Business Network and frequently consults to governments and large corporations. Schwartz argues that many of the big surprises ahead can be foreseen if we use scenario thinking to closely examining existing signs. With this point as well as in some details - such as the impact of shrinking populations - Schwartz is in accord with Peter Drucker. This book lays out the dramatic transformation and volatility we face over the next quarter century. The book's scope is wide enough that everyone is likely to find themselves startled and stimulated.

In case you read Schwartz's previous work and wonder whether he still believes in "The Long Boom", the answer is an undeniable and unashamed *yes!* Productivity and accelerating technological advances will return the economy to a long-term path of strong growth. This doesn't mean that Schwartz paints a pastel portrait of the future. We can expect a cleaner environment and opportunities in abundance, but must also anticipate massive migrations of people, declining populations in large parts of the Western world, a confusing and unruly international situation, global climate crises, plagues, and possibly an asteroid strike. Study this book, challenge Schwartz's thinking, and prepare yourself and your business for a wild ride ahead.

Schwartz believes that his forecasts and scenarios will stand up to the test of future history better than those of most prognosticators. The reason is that, in the grand tradition of "predetermined elements" in scenario planning, he is drawing out the implications of events that have already happened. Many of the big surprises are, in fact, inevitable. So why are we continually caught off guard? Schwartz pins the blame on our tendency as decision makers to react to the drivers of change either with denial or defensiveness. Neither kind of response is effective and both are "fundamentally irresponsible" as Schwartz puts it. In this book, he aims to help us understand the kinds of inevitable surprises lying ahead, and to suggest steps that organizations can take to thrive.

In the author's view, humanity faces greater challenges now than ever before. At the same time we have greater capabilities than ever before. Our greatest challenge is "to master our own accelerating power, without being swept away by it." Along with a few other well-grounded futurists, Schwartz has laid down a challenge along with weapons for tackling the future. Inevitably, most readers will read this book and find it both informative and engaging but few will incorporate the resulting ideas for action into their plans. When it comes to these large-scale shifts, *doing* has always been disadvantaged compared to *denial* and *defensiveness*. Being proven wrong about this would be a surprise but, alas, not an inevitable surprise.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Organizational Change?
Review: This book is listed under strategic organizational change. If that is what you are interested in, read one of the following:

"Strategic Organizational Change" by Beitler
"Leading Change" by Kotter
"On Leading Change" by Hesselbein et al.
"HBR on Leading Change"

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Good book, plus...
Review: This is a good book. In addition, I recommend "Strategic Organizational Change" by Michael Beitler.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Good book, plus...
Review: This is a good book. In addition, I recommend "Strategic Organizational Change" by Michael Beitler.


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