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Summary: Packed with Knowledge!
Review: Change is no news. The great changes that will alter the commercial, political and demographic workings of the world are already underway and some of their consequences are quite predictable, says author Peter Schwartz. He outlines a variety of the more important changes, particularly in places such as China and India, and limns scenarios that represent possible futures. Perhaps this sort of book is inevitable at the turning of a century, of a millennium. The author, in fact, compares his work to predecessors at the end of the nineteenth century. Although some of his predictions fall far short of shocking - for example, global warming and aging populations are hardly undiscovered issues - the exercise of thinking about scenarios and preparing strategies is a good one. The book is also entertaining, because Schwartz writes with a light hand and a casual style. We believe this book would be a good airplane read. It would certainly be appropriate for a long flight, since air travel contributes to some of the more important changes the author discusses. And, if you read it, the time will fly.
Rating: 
Summary: Inevitable Surprises
Review: Good current trend analysis. Personal political bias reflected. Technical errors: Thinks methane is a fuel - it is not, Thinks is clean - actually causes more pollution to make than gasoline causes when burned. No conclusions on trends, only vague thoughts and recommends positive thinking.
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Summary: Mindstretcher
Review: Heartily enjoyed this book. Got me thinking long-term about some of the possibilities for the future that you don't find in the newspapers e.g. the impact of AIDS in places like Russia and India and how that could affect future growth. The way the author can say pretty well what will happen based on current evidence is an amazing tool that should only grow in importance, yet it does not take away the free will to change. Makes you appreciate the world will be even more amazing in the future.
Rating: 
Summary: Change?
Review: I don't understand why this book is classified as a "Strategic Change" or "Organizational Change" book. It is neither. But, it is a good book, if you enjoy reading the work of a futurist. For "Org Change" take a look at Kotter, Collins, Beitler, Black & Gregersen, etc.
Rating:
Summary: Change?
Review: I don't understand why this book is classified as a "Strategic Change" or "Organizational Change" book. It is neither. But, it is a good book, if you enjoy reading the work of a futurist. For "Org Change" take a look at Kotter, Collins, Beitler, Black & Gregersen, etc.
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Summary: The future in parallel permutations
Review: I got this book, Inevitable Surprises, written by Peter Schwartz, because the one that I was looking for (the Art of the Long View) was not available at that time. The author's works have been recommended to me by a close friend of mine, so I made little hesitation before picking this one up.
He wrote about different aspects of the global society, and predicting trends (trends, not events. He's not psychic) for the following 30 years from 2003. Many of these trends have already happened, or happened long before, despite many obvious major events that happened shortly before the time of its publication.
Although a good portion of his "scenarios" are not so upbeat, (e.g., the rest of the world pulling the plug on Africa, and new radical groups, new diseases) they are already taking place. I personally will not deem his book pessimatic, but realistic. They are simply results of human nature, and its interactions between one another, nothing more.
Even though he had a technical background (aeronautic engineering), his discussion on technogical advances a little too optimistic. Being (or was until recently) an engineer by trade, I still think that, as promising are new technologies may be, such as quantum computing and space travel, it would take more than 30 years before such technologies become prominent.
There is still a pretty subtle indication, that Schwartz may not fare well with the Arab nations. Some of his comments, albeit still very neutral and professional, tilts slightly to the negative whenever he touches this particular subject. The reasons are likely his own, and I will not speculate any further.
This is a good book to pick up, if you are looking for the driving forces of the present and near future, and would like to know how they interact, which is the basis of scenario planning, a subject of his "claim-to-fame" book, the Art of the Long View. After reading both books, I tend to think "Long View" as the book on concepts (in scenario planning) and Inevitasble surprises as the one of its machinery. Both works should be read simultaneously.
P.S. - Regarding the "technical error" made by a certain reviewer, METHANE IS A FUEL, and it is often referred to as NATURAL GAS, which is about 94% methane by mass. I can go for miles, but it will be quite off topic.
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Summary: Plus others!
Review: I would recommend this book, but only if it is read along with others in the field; such as "Leading Change" by Kotter, and "Strategic Organizational Change" by Beitler.
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Summary: 21st Century Update of Future Shock
Review: In Inevitable Surprises, veteran futurist and scenario constructor, Peter Schwartz, takes an assignment done for Citicorp in 2001 and turns it into a discussion of seven themes for the future. Here is the book's structure: Chapter 1: Inevitable Surprises Chapter 2: A World Integrated with Elders Chapter 3: The Great Flood of People Chapter 4: The Return of the Long Boom Chapter 5: The Thoroughly New World Order Chapter 6: A Catalog of Disorder Chapter 7: Breakthroughs in Science and Technology Chapter 8: A Cleaner, Deadlier World Chapter 9: Inevitable Strategies In chapter 1, he argues that scenarios can predict the future. His most telling example is having helped develop a scenario involving airplanes destroying the World Trade towers for the Hart-Rudman Commission that was reported a few months after President George W. Bush took office in 2000. But no one paid attention. He cites several other examples of denial that have led to corporate disasters from ignoring scenarios he helped construct. If you would like to learn more about scenario construction, I also highly recommend his fine book, The Art of the Long View, which was published in 1991. What can we expect now? "First, there will be more surprises. Second, we will be able to deal with them. Third, we can anticipate many of them." Chapter 2 begins by pointing out that the U.S. retirement age began climbing in 2001 and will probably continue to do so. People are living longer, are healthier, and either want to work (as his examples of wealthy, educated people show) or have to work (as his example of the airline attendant in her 70s who cannot afford to retire shows). Even after retirement, these people will be active and be part of society. Strom Thurmond's retiring from the Senate at 100 is described as what could become the norm in the future. Chapter 3 is more about migration than population growth, which is expected to be pretty much over worldwide in the next 50 years. He focuses on Asians and Hispanics in the U.S., unwelcome Muslims in Europe, and Chinese become mobile around the world. Chapter 4 describes a return of the old drivers of economic growth: greater productivity; better communications; and greater globalization. He feels that the next 3-4 years might be so-so, but that the good times will be back by late in the decade. Chapter 5 was written before the war in Iraq began, but it describes the issue of having the U.S. operate unilaterally even when the international community doesn't agree -- becoming a rogue superpower in the eyes of much of the rest of the world. He builds up a theme that nations which are orderly internally and encourage order internationally will do best. Most countries will learn to compete in fostering orderliness, sort of like Singapore. Chapter 6 describes a world of continuing terrorism, and high costs to offset it. This is not because terrorism really threatens individuals . . . but because the thought of terrorism is intolerable. By changing individual behavior around the world, terrorists are encouraged to continue. He seems establishing honest democracies in all the Middle Eastern countries as the only way around this. He's concerned about the potential of religious groups coming into conflict in other parts of the world. Chapter 7 is the most intriguing part of the book. He speculates that we could be at the beginning of a new set of fundamental discoveries including new sources of energy, broad scale applications of nanotechnology (molecular devices) controlling biological processes and developing quantum computing, and far-out changes like changing fundamental reality so that science fiction (like teleportation) becomes science fact. If you're not familiar, though, with the background of what he's talking about, you won't get enough here to help you understand it. Chapter 8 was written before the S.A.R.S. outbreak, but describes a similar scenarios about how new diseases may spread very rapidly and be hard to control. He's very optimistic about ordinary source of pollution being cleaned up, as fossil fuels are replaced by new technologies. In an area where you may not agree, he forecasts a bright future for the growth of atomic energy for power generation. In Chapter 9, you are given some principles to use in trying to anticipate when to pay attention to concerning these scenarios for a business. These include having "strategic conversations" with colleagues, thinking about "timing," identifying "earning warning indicators," foster your own use of mechanisms that "engender creative destruction," try to avoid denial of the scenarios, think like a "commodity company," be aware of where your judgment is and is not "competent," and focus on learning, good environmental practices and financial infrastructure and support. He reminds readers that there are no "pat" answers or formulas to apply. For most people, these trends are not new. What's new is his weaving of the trends together into a picture of what could emerge. Necessarily, the pictures are blurry. The book's main weakness is in the flip and incomplete way that he sometimes introduces ideas. For example, he argues that nuclear reactors are not really dangerous because Israeli air attacks on the reactor in Baghdad failed to destroy the facility. Nowhere is there a description of how to handle the nuclear waste, especially the waste that can be turned into terrorist weapons. As a result, I'd encourage you to take this as "food for thought" rather than being "carved in stone" as inevitable. After you finish, think about some trend that he did not mention that will be important to your life or your business and think about what will probably happen. My favorite example is the rapid growth in the use of antidepressant medications in the U.S. How will that affect our health, wealth and happiness? What will come next? You probably can think of a trend that has more meaning to you, such as the growth in regular exercise.
Rating:
Summary: Political biases get in the way
Review: Interesting speculation of potential future events. Some are way out such as the prediction of a major asteroid hit. Others are likely, such as his note that nuclear energy will likely return in response to global warming fears. What spoiled it for me was his calling the US a "rogue superpower". He clearly understands we were attacked on 9/11 and notes that Al Qaeda is a "rogue enemy", but does not believe we have the right to protect ourselves by taking the war overseas to our enemy. His first book, "Art of the Long View" was more informative.
Rating:
Summary: Political biases get in the way
Review: Interesting speculation of potential future events. Some are way out such as the prediction of a major asteroid hit. Others are likely, such as his note that nuclear energy will likely return in response to global warming fears. What spoiled it for me was his calling the US a "rogue superpower". He clearly understands we were attacked on 9/11 and notes that Al Qaeda is a "rogue enemy", but does not believe we have the right to protect ourselves by taking the war overseas to our enemy. His first book, "Art of the Long View" was more informative.
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