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Elliott Wave Principle : Key to Market Behavior

Elliott Wave Principle : Key to Market Behavior

List Price: $45.00
Your Price: $29.70
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Interesting material if you believe in technical analysis
Review: I will avoid a long discussion about stock market efficiency and the efficacy of simple technical analysis, and point you in the direction of Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I would suggest further readings if you want to delve into the academic debate behind it.

That being said Prechters's book offers a basic guide into the fundamentals of Eliiot Wave analysis. The principles of the analysis are the belief that there is information to be gained from the price action of stocks (e.g. the implict information of transactions by traders) and that there is a natural flow to these price movements (e.g. stocks don't go up in one direction).

In incorporating price information, the belief is that stocks move in a 5-wave impulsive pattern, which can be either bullish (up) or bearish (down). A 5-wave move is followed by a 3-wave corrective pattern. Larger cycles are basically an aggregation of many 5- and 3-wave patterns. If believed to be true, the practical benefit of understanding waves and cycles is that investors can use this information to identify "where" they are in the cycle of a stock's movement.

The book follows the basics of identifying waves and cycles with some historical and matehmatical background information. This is where Pretcher ties the material in with nature. He believes that waves move in a natural way, which can be described by the Fibonacci sequence and Fibonacci ratios. He advocates using Fibonnaci ratios to forecast the distance (e.g. percent change) and timing of stock price movements. I found this material to be the most informative since it provided background reading on Fibonacci numbers which many technical traders employ in the various tools they use. Now I know what they are talking about.

The rest of the book can be skipped. It is primarily an application of Elliot Wave to various historical contexts. Of course, Pretcher draws on examples that fit nicely with the belief that Elliot Wave has strong predictive abilities. If I recall correctly, the author does close the book with his predictions for the stock market and did correctly predict a long-term bullish Wave 5 coming out of 1982-83.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Very Intense!
Review: If it is possible to predict what any financial market will do way in advance or even an hour from now, this might be the book to get you on your journey of discovering what it is. Predicated on the hypothesis that there are only 13 possible patterns for any financial market to unfold in, within any given time frame, this is both an intrigueing art and science.I myself am a professional stock investor and I was awed by Prechters knowledge. I went so far as to have him and his services be the first affliliate on my site called:momsonlinestocks.com That said, this book is so in depth and intense, it caused me to have to re-read many of the pages several times. Not the easiest read. My only complaint is he gave us "too" much detail!

This is the first place to start, to "understand" wave theory. I ended the book with the eagerness of feeling "Wow, if I can just decipher not all of the Elliot patterns, but just one that is forming that signals a huge market reversal, and if I can do it just one time, all the reading and research will be worth it." DEFINITELY WILL REQUIRE SERIOUS STUDY TO UNDERSTAND! To understand what your options are about what to "do" with your money, buy his other book "Conquor the Crash." Better yet, get them both. Once I read his book, I was hooked on spending my remaining years searching and uncovering all I can about E.W. theory. It's addicting! -) I would love to hear from anyone who has read his book or any of the fascinating Elliot material out there. We should form a club on Elliot Wave theory!

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Good Descriptive-Terrible Predictive-Fibonacci 101
Review: Interesting theory that goes beyond investing. The rigid market analysis is too narrow and assumes mechanical evolution of human behaviour vis a vis markets. Prechter missed the complex dimensions of the end of the century. He has consistently failed for years to call the market correctly. In 1993 he was massively short just before the great bull market. Yet he marches on oblivious and falls back on his habit of offering two outcomes to every situation. One essentially bullish and the second (sometimes called lesser) as bearish. That way he curve fits his results and avoids facing his failure.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Not a Get-Rich-Quick way of investing
Review: Obviouosly people either love this book (and this concept) or they hate it. I happen to love it and believe that the wave principle answers many questions about market behavior, mass social psychology and even world history. To me, the book does as much in constructing the tapestry of human history as it does in expaining stock market movements.

Anyone expecting to use this book to day-trade and get rich quick is likely to be dissappointed - no one but true experts should be day trading anyway and even many "experts" should probably find other lines of work.

What this book will do is begin to provide an understanding of markets as a function of human nature as well as to provide a very good long term perspective of all of human history. This book provides insight to explain everything from minor stock market corrections to protracted economic depressions to major world wars and even, believe it or not, the dark ages.

Many are critical of Prechter's (obviously wrong) bearish opinion through the 1990s, and rightfully so. On the other hand, if his hypothesis is correct (and I think it is) that we are approaching the end of a bull market that started in 1789, then calling the end of that bull market correctly within even ten years is a spectacular feat. (Yes, I said a bull market that started in "Seventeen Eighty-Nine". Read the book and begin to understand why the USA was born through revolution at the end of the 1700s.)

Let me also point out that Prechter was about the only voice calling for a tremendous bull market starting in 1982. At that time, the mainstream media was pronouncing equities "dead" and you could hardly give away a share of stock free with a bowl of soup. Now that everyone and their brother wants to own stock, of course anyone with a bearish opinion is treated as an outcast.

I think people who have such a low opinion of this book either have minds that are way too closed or, frankly, do not have the ability to understand it. (While I don't think the book is extremely difficult, it is not exactly a first grade reader either.)

Anyone who is in the stock market or considering being in it should consider this book obligatory reading. As unpopular as this viewpoint may be now, we are heading for a very serious bear market and anyone who removes most (or all) of their funds from the stock market will look back ten years from now and be very glad they did.

Prechter's Elliott Wave International has a web site at elliottwave.com which I highly recommend. The site provides additional information which may make a stronger case for the validity and importance of this information than I have here.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: If you're interested in Technical Analysis - see this
Review: Read this book with an open mind and investigate the suggested patterns and you will be amazed what you see.
I remember looking at a 4 year chart of the sp500 after reading this book and trying to observe the "3s" and "5s" and was shocked to see them staring back at me.
It is hard going at first - especially the first couple of chapters, but take it slow and it will soon sink in - you won't regret that you spent the time to learn Elliot Wave Theory

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: We dont live in a universe governed by determinism
Review: The book seems to offer evidence that the wave theory works, but it doesnt pass the test of contradicting evidence. The writers are basically saying that everything in nature seems to be working in a pattern of cycles. This theory is then presented as being the case with the stock market. If we can chart these cycles we will then be able to find what the stock markets next move will be in general and even in particular stocks. The problems with this are; If this theory were true we would be living in a universe governed by determinism. This cant be since there would be infinite cause and effect and there cant be two infinites. If determinism were true, there would be no free will, but as was shown above this is not the case. Events predicted by the elliot wave are coincidences and when money is at stake youre better off dealing in probabilities. The truth is that markets are governed by human psychology. Its far better to take the advice of the wise J. Paul Getty who wrote " To make money in the market buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying." Most trading books are very expensive and their advice in no way justifies their price. Get How to be rich by J.Paul Getty. This book offers very wise advice on making money in buisness, investments etc. and it doesnt cost an arm and a leg.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Don't read this book if you want to make money
Review: The Elliott Wave principle is dangerous to your financial health.

Its a convincing theory that works very well in hindsight. The problem is that it doesnt predict the market successfully. Worse still the patterns can be so convincing (but in hindsight plainly wrong) that you trade your bias rather than the markets price behaviour.

If you do read it apply the test of assuming the market makes a move up, down and sideways over the next 5 days. Then explain why it happened. Then ask yourself if there is any value in your current view.

These guys get it wrong all the time and have been predicting the big crash regularly since 1987.

Look instead for books by Van Tharp, William O'neil, Charles Le Beau and Alexander Elder.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: First, understand Choas theory and Fractal Geometry ........
Review: then you will understand Elliot Wave principles. The stock markets are said to be nonlinear, dynamic systems. Chaos theory is the mathematics of studying such nonlinear, dynamic systems. Does this mean that chaoticians can predict when stocks will rise and fall? Not quite; however, chaoticians have determined that the market prices are highly random, but with a trend. The stock market is accepted as a self-similar system in the sense that the individual parts are related to the whole. Another self-similar system in the area of mathematics are fractals. Could the stock market be associated with a fractal? Why not? In the market price action, if one looks at the market monthly, weekly, daily, and intra day bar charts, the structure has a similar appearance. However, just like a fractal, the stock market has sensitive dependence on initial conditions. This factor is what makes dynamic market systems so difficult to predict. Because we cannot accurately describe the current situation with the detail necessary, we cannot accurately predict the state of the system at a future time. Stock market success can be predicted by chaoticians. Short-term investing, such as intra day exchanges are a waste of time. Short-term traders will fail over time due to nothing more than the cost of trading. However, over time, long-term price action is not random. Traders can succeed trading from daily or weekly charts if they follow the trends. ***A system can be random in the short-term and deterministic in the long term***.

Manus J. Donahue III
An Introduction to Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry

Elias Yoseph, Virginia

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: elliott wave principle :key to market behavior
Review: This book is a must for anyone who believes that there is method to the stock market madness.I am a pharmacist with a scientific and mathematical background.This book explains the stock market in terms of elliott waves,in a similar way that writing is explainned by the alphabet.In essence it explains the relationship between the everyday variations and its relation to what is happenning today.It explains why the DOW is 10750 today and what the most likely scenario is for the next week,month,year.I like to get into it in a complicated way ,but it is not necessary to do so.Learning the alphabet(elliott wave pattern) is enough to allow anyone who can read and write to note whre the market is today and where it is likely to go.While the most obvious use is for stock market investing the education perhaps is even more important. The elliott wave theory says that all moves consist of 8 waves given symbols 1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c,.In a bull market 1,3,5 and b are moves upward and 2 4 a & c are downward moves.Therefore if you can workout which wave your stock is in you can predict its next move.Each 8 wave move is followed by another 8 wave move and every move is interelated.The dow appears to be in the start of wave a with a long and sharp decline in the near future. I have read the book twice and I need to read it again as it makes more sense each time.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A "must have" book for Elliotticians
Review: This book is the easiest to read, most direct and to the point book that is solely on Elliott Wave. It tells all the possible moves, how they happen, and why. The book also goes into the very necessary explanation of Fibonacci and time relationships with regard to price. Many gold nuggets of information contained within this book; it is the most simple, complete Elliott Wave book you can get.

But the biggest problem is...most people just don't "get it"... Elliott Wave and Elliott's findings are SO MUCH MORE than the financial markets. The fundamental discoveries that govern the Wave Principle and thus the behavior of the financial markets are the very same fundamental forces at work throughout the entire universe. When you have a deep understanding of the Wave Principle, Socionomics, and science in general, you can begin to see how everything around us all ties together to form this awesome grand scheme of life and existance. A deep understanding of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci is the key to opening a whole new world of knowledge, application, and the birth of a new science.


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