Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

Rating:
Summary: Fighting human biases
Review: This is one of the best books I've read about human behavior and probability. This book crystallizes many of the reasons behind why we humans behave the way we do despite knowing the odds intellectually and offers some very pragmatic ideas for minimizing our irrational behavior.

In addition to his insights on probability, Dr. Taleb seems to have a firm understanding of how to teach. I'll never forget the visceral images his book left me with, such as Odysseus and the sirens or the experiences of his friend Nero. I know little about the markets, but I can see what a powerful training ground in probability they must be. The descriptions of traders "blowing up" are good allegories even though I find myself in a less random environment (I think).

Rating:
Summary: Five stars, reluctantly.
Review: This is a very good book for the right target audience - traders who successfully speculate with their own funds. There aren't many of them, estimates rarely go above 10,000 worldwide. Small wonder then, that the publisher chooses to market the book on a larger scale, and that's where it gets misunderstood.

Not that that's difficult. Taleb has a rare clarity of thought, but not of expression. There are a few brilliant insights almost lost in the wordy mix of bitterness and triumphalism that makes up most of the book. These insights are well worth the price and the time spent extracting them, but they will be lost on most people who buy this book. Unless one is able to filter Taleb's text through the prism of one's own experience it won't make sense.

If you are not a trader, don't bother with this book - there are better texts on epistemology as well as statistics.

If you are a trader who is still learning, buy this book, read it once, keep it on the shelf, and read it again in a few years.

If you are a consistently profitable trader with someone else's money, buy this book and read it to better understand your own decisionmaking process before you consider becoming self-employed.

If you are a consistently profitable trader with your own money, buy the book and read it - it won't improve your trading but it will improve your execution, and it's worth the money for that.

Rating:
Summary: Fooled By The Hype On The Cover and The Ramble Inside
Review: I had been looking forward to reading this book for some time but I was too busy in my job as a securities analyst. The title was enticing because it seemed to hint at some of the same conclusions about stock markets that I had come to in my 20 years of analysing stocks.

I was very disappointed with the book. I couldn't bring myself to finish it. Much of the text is full of long-winded padding. The smugness and the name-dropping and the sneering at those less brainy than the undoubtedly smart Mr. Taleb himself were intensely irritating. Frankly, a huge opportunity was lost here. The title promised much more than what was delivered. Mr. Taleb's rambling self-absorption in his own cleverness and the stream of consciousness style that pervades much of the book is offputting and slightly nauseating.