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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $19.01
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Too Intelligent to Ever Be Popular
Review: This is a relentlessly logical examination of the age-old question "If you are so smart, why aren't you rich?" With acerbic wit the author examines the wealth of the dumb, and forces the reader to examine very closely the difference between skill and luck in one's own life. Taleb is clearly obsessed with introspection of his own life, and has humbled himself before the altar of chance -- his sincerity shines through, despite his pomposity.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Terrific
Review: A treatise on critical thinking that validates the continued existence of those that do not suffer fools, lightly.

You have to be smart to enjoy this book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: this black swan is a ten star event
Review: If you are a dyed in the wool fundamental analyst, a puffed up CEO, a financial journalist, or a swaggering institutional trader, then odds are extremely high that you will hate this book with a passion, and feel equal parts loathing and resentment for its author. I am surprised that there are not more condescending or vicious one star reviews than the few I saw, seeing as this book is bound to offend just about every traditional Wall Street type there is(and they are not the most forgiving type).

Being thousands of miles away from Wall Street in both mentality and location, I found this book to be effortlessly brilliant- one of the most insightful I have read in years. It comes across in the style of a casual coffee shop chat with an intelligent friend. Taleb does not stretch your brain with new math or doctorate level concepts- instead he points things out with such casual ease that you wind up wondering how you could have missed the clarity before. It is a classic case of adding valuable depth, rather than breadth, to knowledge of probability.

I bought the book assuming Taleb would spend a lot of time arguing for the random walk theory of markets, when in fact the practical result appears to be the opposite. His thesis, as I see it, is that trading opportunities exist largely because man is genetically and societally programmed to be fooled by randomness, yet remains willfully oblivious to this fact- and thus the crowd creates exploitable market distortions through an ongoing series of irrational acts.

The elements of humor and insight in this book are numerous, and I can't resist highlighting a few favorites. Taleb's observation of the "lucky fool" made me chuckle because I have come across or heard of so many lucky fools already over the course of my young career (like the friend of a client who turned 400K into 12 million pyramiding gains on a single tech stock in '99, but then went bankrupt on the ride back down because he was too naive to distinguish between skill and luck).

Taleb's use of the dentist's certainty of income as a statistical average in comparing potential outcomes over numerous sample paths was very instructive, as were the final outcome examples of myopically aggressive traders John and Carlos in comparison to the cautious Nero Tulip. The powerful point is that it is easier not to be jealous of a mega-successful peer when it is known that the bulk of that peer's accomplishment was to be in the right place at the right time, suggesting the nature of their success- fortuitous gain from a random cycle or event- is of such ephemeral nature that it can disappear at any point (insert flashback to Nasdaq bubble here).

Taleb's observation on the correlation between market observation and emotion was also excellent and original (to me at least). The lesson that even a high probability strategy will likely have negative emotional expectation over the short run, due to the exaggerated impact of negative emotions over positive ones, has many implications for those obsessed with watching every tick of their portfolios. In his thorough and methodical destruction of probability blind journalists, flavor of the month gurus and retrofitted market theorists, Taleb also highlights how the explosion of commentary and data in the information age arguably makes for worse trading decisions overall- and confers an advantage to the trader who can restrain himself from drowning in data. The way he watches CNBC also made me laugh out loud (read the book to find out why).

He does not spare fund managers either, popping their balloonlike egos with a sharp argument based on the talented coin syndrome. Morningstar will not like his undeniable point that the majority of good track records taken from a large sample pool are based more on luck than skill- and that sudden and heavy advertising of such a track record only increases the likelihood that it is a statistical variance.

Finally, I appreciated the way Taleb stresses firmly and repeatedly that one of his greatest strengths is knowing that he is weak. Humility is a sign of wisdom, and the proud generally have a shorter life expectancy, especially in markets. That, too, could be considered a central theme of this book.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: A random walk through Taleb's book...
Review: Taleb's discourse on the role of randomness in investing and, more importantly, in performance testing, is an important initial contribution for that small segment within the investment industry that conducts back-testing and attempts to get to the core of performance results. That the general public understands the wider implications of his conclusions is doubtful, but Taleb isn't targeting his book to those with Plebian tastes.

Of particular interest are his attempts to explain the intellectual underpinnings that led to the dreadful result of lumping economics with the hard sciences. Taleb makes a stab at discussing so may important and interesting topics, but leaves readers hanging on for more. He only begins to touch on important topics such as behaviorial economics, or the role of "noise" in the marketplace.

This book, while a solid tongue-in-cheek primer on the esoteric topic of randomness, begs for a serious follow-up that focuses more on solid examples and recommendations for action, and less on classical name dropping. Taleb should see a therapist to figure out whether he wants to be a serious classist, or stoop to the level of an intellectually curious, but "bored with money," investment pro. Then, on second thought, as Cavafy would say, life is the journey, and I doubt Taleb really wants to arrive in port...

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Intellectual depth.
Review: The talent of Dr. Taleb lies in his ability to connect things
that lie in front of our eyes but that we are unable to see
by ourselves. Once we read his text, we wonder why we didn't
think about them before. Very enjoyable read.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Not a good read.
Review: A surprisingly large amount of this book seems to be devoted to settling personal scores and building up the author's ego. These parts are particularly distasteful and prevented me from taking the book seriously.

The discussions of probability are, for the most part, fairly rudimentary. Some, no doubt, will gain from them.

There are far more enlightening books around.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: The #1 in Derivatives ...
Review: Taleb is the expert in derivatives & and teaching derivatives. His second book, though meant for a very broad readership, is espesially interesting for people in finance/derivatives. His thoughts on "Monte Carlo Mathematics" or "Bull and Bear Zoology" cannot be missed. If not for all, the book is a must read for "the difference between noise and information". Never again will you forget Taleb's explanation why you should not watch your portfolio fluctuations on monthly or even daily basis.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: trader or not this is a great book
Review: As an avid reader of both skeptical and scientific literature, I found this book fascinating. As a Professional trader I found this book disturbingly relevant. I have always had the nagging feeling that most trading systems may be illusory and serve only to provide the necessary comfort needed to function in the face of uncertainty while providing an illusion of control (all this while I am a discretionary system trader!!). Is the market a rondom walk? Do most things revert to their mean? Does market success carry the seeds for it's own undoing? Is Taleb really arrogant? (I think he is just honest). If any of this interests you , read this book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Fun, easy to read and very useful
Review: Dr. Taleb is a financial trader, one who uses math, specifically probability, to improve his results. He points out flaws in the way we think about probability, and he is oh so right. To get his message we don't need to know any more math than the average 12 year old, if that. This book will not make you rich, but if you are at all involved in the financial markets you will almost certainly see some mistakes you are making. Certainly I did. You will also learn how to avoid wasting a lot of time on "news". Dr. Taleb's stories about his ancestors, historical figures, and his associates are amusing too, and help to make his points. Dr. Taleb himself comes across as an effete intellectual snob, which undoubtedly caused some of the less positive reviews here, but that is part of the fun of the book.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Some Random Thoughts
Review: I found this book to be interesting, relatively informative, and fun to read. Taleb's honesty combined with his arrogance make for many amusing anecdotes. The reader will get an interesting viewpoint of random versus deterministic components of life, but when it comes to explaining his beloved Monte Carlo modeling, he does not inform us that its main limitation is that the inputs often must be guessed. Even educated guesses sometimes make for unreliable results.

In addition, I find that Taleb criticizes scientists without making the distinction between real scientists and those who call themselves scientists and those who the media call scientists. Real scientists are certainly the more IMprobable to be quoted in our society. He also seems to equate mathematical modeling with science, and he confuses amplitude and frequency in his example of filtering noise.

This book, however, is well written and well worth the read.


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