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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $19.01
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Nothing.......almost
Review: Unbelievable.......Absolutely incredible.....
196 pages in which the author brags about how clever he is that he knows elementary statistics while the media don't and that he is so cultured he read the Odyssey.
And his french education and his poetry readings.....
And his multiple examples of the young hot-shot trader, who ultimately loses because "randomness" catches up with him as he made money under special circumstances without recognising it and on the other hand the "Nero Tulip" character (in which the author doubtlessly identifies) who makes less money more consistently because he recognises randomness.
Oh well do you there are people who understand statistics and still don't feel like bragging about it. And there are people who consistently make rather a lot of money because they spend their time studying the market rather than "cafe' lounging and museum hopping" (from the back cover flap, about the author's other interests -??!!-) and yet don't write books about it.
What's really upsetting about the nothingness of this book is NOT the author's egomaniacal style and his denigratory statements clothed as favorable affirmations NOR his pompousness (my english education prepared me for it) but rather the many favorable reviews it got!!
I find this disconcerting ....and encouraging; if this person can get such a book published and even positevely reviewed..well hell I can found a religion!! and you can write your own book if while strolling around a museum (or drinking in a pub or whatever), you were to realize that a colour is really light at a specific wavelength (Hey you are a scientist!!)

You can do without this book by getting a very elementary stats book and having 3 spare neurons in your brain for understanding it's applications.

PS I'd like to thank the author for making me realize that what I know is beyond the comprehension of many.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Packed with Knowledge!
Review: The past decade has witnessed the release of many books about risk management and assessment, but none have managed to illustrate the role that random events play in life and markets as well as Nissim Nicholas Taleb's latest work. Writing in a leisurely and personal style that makes his complex subject utterly accessible, Taleb instructs us on how to account for randomness in our decision making, and illustrates the many ways in which we confuse luck with skill. We from getAbstract highly recommend this book, which many investors will wish they had read in, say, 1994.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: A dissapointing and somewhat egocentric book
Review: I felt dissapointed by this book. It contains indeed some interesting nuggets, like the digressions on "lucky fools" (those favoured by luck see causality rather than randomness), "survivorship bias" (we never see the losers) or "black swans" (those extremely unlikely but devastating events). But the book is, by and large, an unsuccessful blend of Mr. Taleb's personal biography with his musings about how financial markets behave. There is much truth in the concept of lucky fools -the fundamental theme of the book - , but the point becomes repetitive and overdone. The book is also peppered by continuous allegories to History and Literature (Solon, Carneades, Proust, Baudelaire...), which make clear that Mr. Taleb's personal interests, rooted in his French education/Middle East background/Anglosaxon professional experience, go beyond finance and which demonstrate that he is much more cultivated than the average finance specialist (Mr. Taleb informs his readers, for instance, that he'd rather read Baudelaire than listen to the CNN or George Will). But my guess is that many of those passing remarks on History, Literature and even economics (e.g. Mr. Taleb's cursory reference to "behavioral finance" or "network externalities")will be understood and ejoyed only by those already familiar with them.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: meandering, inconsistent, and pompous
Review: While trying to pass himself off as Nero Tulip, the fictional protagonist of this annoying book, he comes across more as a simple... His points are banal: that successful people are often lucky but don't acknowledge it, or that empirical distributions have fatter tails than predicted by normal distributions. Further, he's inconsistent, one moment praising the truth and beauty offered by mathematical analysis, the next slamming simpletons who make assumptions in order apply those tools (e.g., stationarity). Lastly, his pomposity would be only mildly irksome if it didn't also reflect an ignorance of why his insights are not that new, true, or interesting. I wish I didn't wast time reading the first half of this book, and have no plans to read the last half.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Both informative and well written
Review: This is the first book of its kind to correctly analyze the randomness that is inherent in any group of supposed "winners". No one before has written so eloquently about the subject matter. A great book written for Wall Streeters and Main Streeters. Critics that think Taleb is bombastic or arrogant have their own issues that aren't related to the book. Very interesting and quite amusing read

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Essential for understanding the workings of the world
Review: Anyone who holds any doubts in regards to the validity of this book must read Edward Chancellor's 'Devil Take the Hindmost,' which provides a history of financial markets from the dawn of the Roman Empire up to now. After reading such a sweeping historical account, one sees the financial markets for exactly what they have always been: one vast bubble machine where people have even invested in, according to Chancellor, a company that refused to explain anything about what it did but simply assured the investors that it had a great idea for making money. Sounds rather similar to some of the dot coms in recent years. Through a compliation of both antecdotes and thoughts, Taleb provides an explanation as to why the markets work in this way, why so many fail to realize this, and how these issues are mirrored in our everyday lives. He addresses many issues that everyone should understand in order to view the world in a realistic manner. Evolution is not a one way road to nirvana but rather the process through which those adapted to the current situation fare better, and they may not be best adopted when things change. When judging the validity of any strategy in business or in life one must consider that the winners write the history books; you can only talk to survivors of war but that certainly doesn't mean that everyone survives it. When deducing anything from viewing a sample you must consider the forces that created that sample: should you consider yourself unintelligent because you're behind your classmates at a top law school? Are a good outcome and a good decision the same thing, and likewise for a bad outcome and a bad decision? And the list goes on.

While Taleb does not fully dive into this issue until later in the book, the primary conjecture of the piece is that human beings are psychologically prone to misinterpret random events. We need to explain things, whether it be in the social sciences, art and literature, or the natural sciences, so we find ways to explain them. Considering the infinite quantities of data at our disposal, no statistician denies that extremely powerful correlations will occur simply out of chance. Certain aspects of an author's life will be almost identical to passages in his or her novels, certains stocks will share perfect correlations, and we are creatures in need of explanation, and whole industries have been created to mine the data and tell us why things occur.

Prior to this book, Taleb had already written 'Dynamic Hedging,' considered by many, including myself, to be one of the best books ever written on exotic and vanilla options. That book is not for anyone who has not spent years studying (or preferably practicing) options, but in 'Fooled by Randomness' he illustrates his ideas in terms that anyone could understand. In 'Dynamic Hedging' he provides more insights into his trading strategies than he would have done had he been solely profit motivated, and likewise, as the boss of a fund that profits from other people's misconceptions of probability, he cannot have any reason to try to increase people's awareness of how the world really works other than a genuine desire to play the role of the teacher. Many have attacked the book as arrogant, but it must be remembered that anyone who goes against the common ways of thinking is essentially suggesting that he or she understands things better than do most people and therefore cannot help but come off as arrogant. Several times in the book Taleb specifically states that he falls victim to the tendencies that he condemns, and that the main difference that he sees between himself and others is that he is at least aware of it.

Considering the fact that Taleb blatantly argues that many who consider themselves the rulers of the universe were in fact a group of lucky fools, it is inevitable that many will come away from it with a sense of anger and a refusal to believe it. I am therefore almost surprised that the book has not drawn harsher reviews than it has, for Taleb was certainly not seeking to make friends through the publication of it. I suspect that those who rate the book as poor fall into two general categories: those who were troubled by the thought that a considerable portion of their success may have resulted from luck, and those who are attached to their current views on the workings of the markets and are hostile to any new views on them. These two categories naturally overlap quite often. An important thing to remember is that even if you work very hard, not only are the outcomes of your projects the result, to varying extents, of chance, but chance also played a role in getting you to the position where you can work hard and actaully see it pay off. Considering the complexity of the world we live in, and the infinite forces that push and pull on our lives, this book is critical to anyone who desires an objective veiw of how things come to be...

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Fun read + thoughtful ideas
Review: I am a trader myself, and ran into this book as, ironically, a lucky coincidence: I happened to read the emerging markets chapter as a draft that was getting emailed around the office, and enjoyed it so much i purchased the rest of the book...

I found the book to be well written, opinionated and with some great ideas that frankly are hard to argue against. His book, at the core, is about the problem of induction. Statistics, for how useful they may be day to day, certainly do not solve this problem, and indeed, luck and skill are hard to differentiate in the markets.

He exposes a problem of a philosophical nature, and he is certainly not suggesting to drop all induced laws and redefine a day to day life full of uncertainty and incapable of establishing practical rules.

This book is not meant to be a textbook so i am not sure why Taleb's flair as a writer is getting attacked so repeatedly here. I think his writing style is elegant, amusing and smooth. This book is about opinion, so accusing him of having an opinion seems a misplaced objection. Also, i believe his writing is being somewhat misinterpreted. While there is an undertone of arrogance, it is self mocking. He does not claim to know better. His only, somewhat socratic claim is that he at least knows he does not know...I am surrounded by arrogance at work, and i can tell you, Taleb's ain't so!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Right On .... Hilarious. A+++
Review: The author candidly bears his soul in this book and shows how weak he is when dealing with randomness. I find this heroic. This book is very entertaining, informative, and charming. Still, I expect many readers to be angry because people do not like to be questioned concerning their skills; those who succeeded out of luck do not like to be reminded of that. This book is not for "lucky fools". It is an exceptional piece of work that brings a probabilistic perspective to our thinking and helps us better make sense of what we observe in life.

As a Ph.D. in OR & Applied Statistics, I find this book fascinating and have never read one like it. Taleb did an amazing job at simplifying and explaining mathematical concepts which were presented in both an entertaining and informative manner. Never thought that these ideas could be exposed in such a hilarious manner!

Mark

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Great Idea => bad book
Review: I agonized over how to rate this one. The idea that luck (randomness) is far more important that we give credit is very dear to me. Unfortunately, after telling us how humble he has become by studying markets, Taleb spends the rest of the book showing us how arrogant he really is. The good news is that the subject is still wide open.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Irritating, meandering, pompous, and sometimes interesting
Review: It's an interesting subject -- the role of chance in the markets -- it's just too bad Taleb was too busy puffing himself up to get to it. He apparently wants to be a cross between Daniel Dennett and Richard Feyman, but he comes off instead like an insecure blowhard -- like some bore of a party guest who won't stop droning.

Is there anything useful in the book? Sure, but honestly, it's not worth the effort finding those few nuggets about fat-tailed distributions and volatility inflation. Read John Allen Paulos's innumeracy series; read Peter Bernstein's "Against the Gods". Hey, even read some books by Dennett and Feynman, if you want. But don't waste your time on this pompous twaddle. Taleb has an insecurity streak you could spot from high-earth orbit -- and it obscures his entire book.


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