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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

List Price: $27.95
Your Price: $19.01
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Brilliant
Review: This book presents a highly entertaining and informative view of the role of probability in the markets as well as in daily situations, and Taleb will often force you to crack an amused smile and nod with agreement at the same time. The book explores the idea that human beings are not wired to think rationally, and how we therefore misinterpret many events in life. I am no less than shocked that the book has received so many harsh reviews; and I ask anyone who considers not purchasing it to consider that the following points no doubt apply to many of the people who gave it any less than 4 stars.
1) If you want a technical work on finance, read Taleb's 'Dynamic Hedging.' In 'Fooled by Randomness' he intentionally writes so that people outside of the fields of finance and math can understand it. These reviews that attack it for diluting certain points are therefore ridiculous and miss the very point of the book.
2) Since this book's thesis states that many people who think they rose to power or wealth actually did so out of pure luck, of course many people are going to react with hostility and will not want you to read it. Any scathing reviews are no doubt therefore people who don't want you to realize the truth about them.
3) The book is not arrogant. I have trouble seeing how so many can describe it as egotistical when one of Taleb's main points is that he knows nothing about how the markets will act, and that the only thing that seperates him from most people is that he realizes this lack of knowledge, and designs his strategies accordingly. My contention is that it is inevitable that anyone who goes against the common theories will be labeled as arrogant, which is why so many view Taleb as so.
4) Taleb is right. September 11th, the Russian collapse, the interent bubble; the markets are ruled by sudden rare events and you ignore them at your own risk.
I therefore implore you to not listen to all this silly reviews that attack it for entirely groundless reasons. Taleb is one of just a few members of the derivatives theory hall of fame; other members include Nobel Prize winners Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, who derived the famous Black-Scholes formula. What he has to say is worth listening to.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: If you invest, you'd better know what's in this book
Review: This is a book that does away with a lot of the hype in scientific finance and investing.

If that sounds intimidating, don't worry. The book is very readable, also for people with no scientific/mathematical background whatsoever.

In the book, the author reminds us of a number of things in mathematics and statistics that anyone who`s read 101 mathematics/statistics knows, really. But he then goes on to demonstrate how these things work in the marketplace and how many of these basic facts are ignored by the pros. Did you know that a fund manager's past performance really means NOTHING when predicting his/her future returns. Read the book and find out why!

As I mentioned, the book is very readable and easy-going on the formal stuff. That does not mean that the author fears 4+-syllable words or that he lacks self-confidence. Indeed, he does not shy away from offering you a life-philosophy in the closing chapters. Personally, I found it refreshing/entertaining, but that`s personal... Anyway, putting up with the latter is a small price to pay in comparison with losing out on the info in this book.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Stunning
Review: Like most every reviewer here, I thought his proposed thesis would make an interesting book, and it was on that basis that I bought and read this. Unfortunately, all I got was about 200 pages of self-satisfied ignorance regarding contemporary culture, with the occassional generalization about the role of randomness in the market and life.

As somebody with a PhD in philosophy who wrote his dis in Phil of Science, I was especially teed off by the ease which he mocks all theorists except Popper. Going purely by what he's written here, his argument against the entire continental tradition from at least Hegel to the present, is based on the fact that they are difficult to understand. For most, this would not be something to brag about, but for Nero Tulip there is nothing that does not fall into that category.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Very Smart..
Review: This book is very smart. I have always believed this,
but now the author has articulated what has simply been
turning somewhere in the back of my head. You will enjoy it
too, a glimpse of the world through the eyes of someone who
sees it differently, and more accurately, than most people.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: He may be right....
Review: There is a distinct possibility that Taleb may be, after all, right.
As a litmus test, of those that read the book, the world may be broken down into two parts, those that understand and accept the possibility.. and the rest...
See which camp you fall into..

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Noise-to-signal ratio too high
Review: The endless ego-centric platitudes in this book raise its overall noise-to-signal ratio to the point where the reader wastes too much time in getting its basic message: that life and the financial markets are ruled by randomness and that our brains are not equipped to properly assess probabilities and avoid making wrong decisions. The book provides precious little practical advice on how to cope with financial randomness, other perhaps than reading The Economist instead of the daily financial pressÐÐessentially Odysseus' way of waxing his ears in order not to to fall prey to the sirens' songs

I would advise that you read Peter Bernstein's "Against the Gods" instead to learn considerably more about the role of chance in the markets.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Sound Science, Earth Shaking Conclusions
Review: I am told Taleb's mathematics ring true; my experience tells me his illustrations drawn from the market certainly do.

It is rare when a sound scientific book renders itself entertaining, helpful and useful for the general public. Writing in a narrative style, Taleb tackles induction, survivorship bias and whether we, as humans, are equipped to face the modern world. The book is about luck and the fools who claim credit for what are often random events.

Stick with the book. It has applications in science, finance, politics and business. But beware; a thorough understanding of Taleb's thesis will shake your understanding of universe to its core.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Rare Events Matter, Now What?
Review: I like Taleb's approach to survivorship bias of large populations. He discusses why some people get rich while other (seemingly competent) people do not get rich. I also like his discussion of the psychological barriers to probabilistic thinking (I suffer from it, I'm glad to hear a smart guy like him struggles with it too).

Rare and Unpredictable events can mediate outcomes in many systems including economic systems and trading. Taleb takes care to remind us of that and to suggest that noise, measurement error and (necessary) over simplification in model design of systems governed by many interacting factors means that predictions can be very wrong (albeit with low probability).

I liked the fact that he discussed this, he is likeable (a bit eccentric and borderline arrogant, with a love of classics, my kind of guy...). However, his book does not appear to give a clear cut strategy for dealing with "rare events". He appears to recommend a conservative what-if approach, but risk identification is not well covered. Rather than feeling that I can identify an approach to investing, the author has somehow made me uncertain that any approach can work (and I cannot identify an approach suggested by the author). The obvious strategies of hedging bets are discussed. Taleb seems capable of making a more quantitative discussion (perhaps he has other books that are worth looking at), if some models or additional approaches would have been provided, I would have given it the full 5 stars. Perhaps he means to say that a process rather than a static method is needed (much like Schneier describes in his book on computer security, "Secrets and Lies"),

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Great topic but did not delve deep enough
Review: The book is thought provoking but I expected it to discuss the matter more in depth. Could it be that Taleb has watered down the content for mass consumption?

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Fooled by Bad Reviews: This is a fine book
Review: No question, the author is deeply eccentric, and wants us to know it. (He claims to "glorify personal idiosyncrasies to avoid bearing any intellectual resemblance to the crowd.") And his claim to model "the Victorian gentleman scholar" who will "avoid the media, television, newspapers" in favor of hanging out in salons with intellectuals (shunning other stock traders, whom he views with contempt) so he can read poetry and "remain steeped in Greco-Roman culture" can be downright annoying. But don't be put off. By the end you will not only learn to like the author, but he will illustrate in an easy, entertaining style our genetic predisposition to see patterns and causality where they do not exist.


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