Rating: 
Summary: Expect more to come about this topic!
Review: I read this book last night. It is a quick read, quite repetitive, and tries too hard to be clever. BUT, it strikes a powerful cord and is fabulously specific about its recommendations which you can take or leave. I think this book will permanently change my investment strategy which has been traditionally based on diversification and value. Contrary to reviews, Oil Factor is not a doomsday scenario. It is instead a seemingly rational view of the fact that the world's economy is energy based and that oil is now king but won't be forever. The authors do their best to simplify complex ideas about the relationship of energy to everyone's economic future. I was drawn to the book because of my own belief that predictions that our oil reserves will last another 50 years are shallow and ridiculously optimistic. This book reenforced my skepticism, although it may err in the other direction. The authors offer a way to think about the world's relationship to energy that is conservative but not panic or crisis driven. These ideas offer a new way to think about an investment strategy, or in other words, a redefinition of my concept of "value". The book is not just about energy. It is about the effect our energy needs have on our behavior. It talks about defense, real estate, insurance, alternative energy, metals, inflation and deflation,just to name a few chapters. The authors strive to rise above the "political gestalt" of energy politics where the artists and vegetarians care about alternatives, and the construction workers and CEOs care about oil. "Our system can't survive without affordable energy, and once oil doesn't fit that bill, we'll need to find something else that does. We'll all have to come together on this. " In summary, I think this book is extremely worthwhile and expect to hear much more about this subject in the next couple of years.
Rating: 
Summary: good practical book - a must if you own and s&p 500 fund
Review: I thought this was a good practical book that might help the many buy and hold investors who have their money in index funds avoid another disastrous decade similar to the 70's. If you have no clue about oil and its consequences for the economy then it is a must read.
If you believe the one star reviewer's idiotic comments, e.g. oil will run out, "In about another 600 years or so" then don't bother to read the book, you deserve to lose your shirt. Anybody can go and read the IEA's inflated numbers and realise we've got a major problem on our hands over the next few decades. And as I type this oil is $46+ a barrel, well on the way to Leeb's prediction of 100 by 2010.
The one thing I wish he'd put in the book is some mention of investing in oil royalty funds. Otherwise I thought it was good.
Rating: 
Summary: Glaring ommission?
Review: I've read most of this book already and have skimmed the portions I have not read. I see absolutely NO reference to the oil reserves that supposedly lie in the Caspian Sea basin. Some have suggested reserves approaching those of Saudi Arabia. How can it be that this information is not incorporated into this book? I've also found the book a bit shallow and repetitive. It takes only few chapters to get the point. Much of the rest of the book simply states the same themes over and over in different ways. Someone could easily skim through this book for 15 minutes in the bookstore and walk away with all the knowlege it seeks to impart. The only saving grace to this book is the importance of the topic it discusses and, particularly for people ignorant of oil economics, for that reason it is a worthwhile read.
Rating:
Summary: Wake up call!
Review: if you were worried about the USA's energy problems you probably should NOT read this book! this is a real wake-up call for our elected officials and for all you SUV drivers out there. the message is pretty simple - we're running out of oil and not doing anything about it!
Rating:
Summary: Provocative, informative and helpful
Review: It is said that Stone Age did not come to an end due to shortage of stones. But the age of oil, the world's largest commodity, is likely to end, thanks to its limited supplies. Many books have been published about the impending oil crisis that is likely to hit us within the next decade. Implications of the excessive use of fossil fuels, its impact on the environment and our health is also another important topic. Economies dependant on oil will find it hard to cope with the skyrocketing oil prices if King Hubbert's theory and forecast that our demand has already exceeded what the global reserves can supply, happens during this decade. The crisis occurs not when the last drop of oil has been pumped out, but when we have crossed the half way mark in exhausting the supplies. Another unfortunate dimension to this situation is the fact that most of the remaining known reserves lie in not so politically stable countries, not to talk of the religious divide. Some of these countries have suddenly increased their estimates of reserves. The authors feel that is due to OPEC's quota fixing formula and some countries have overstated their reserves to get a higher quota of production. Lies, damn lies and statistics and perhaps we can add middle east oil reserve estimates to this list. The next decade, the authors forecast, will be a decade of oil at $ 100+ a barrel. Turbulent times await us, economically. The book discusses the impact of rising oil prices on the economy, a brief overview of alternate and supplementary energy sources along with steps for conservation. It also takes into account the various macro economic realities like today's housing boom, expansion in consumer credit, low interest rates and employment scenario. Many other books have ended here. But Stephen and Donna Leeb steer us clear through turbulent times, helping us understand the economic impact and harness the forces beneficially through prudent investment decisions. Two things come to my mind while looking at this approach. The forces of nature were never conquered, but utilized by mankind beneficially by harnessing them instead of attempting to change or fight them. Secondly , our success in various fields was possible due to simplification of complex phenomena into elegant theories. This book is a winner on both these counts. The Oil Indicator described in simple terms by the authors, if successful, will be acknowledged as one of the most important principles in financial and portfolio management by the middle of the next decade. The book also contains a suggestive portfolio of investments and the share of each segment depending on what the oil indicator suggests periodically. Keep shuffling the mix, to maximize gains instead of the conventional buy and hold strategy suggest the authors. Their industry analysis and choice of stocks is interesting, though at times I felt that it lacks depth. But the authors, given their background, can be safely given the benefit of doubt of having done the detailed analysis and given us only the results. A word of caution. This book is about the American Economy and investment options available in that country as recommended by the sign of the Oil Indicator. Readers like me from other countries may have to suitably tailor the analysis and recommendations as per local economic situations. In the preface the authors hope that this book would be provocative, informative and helpful. Mission accomplished.
Rating:
Summary: get this book
Review: It is speculative for the layman to predict global peak oil, but the fact is that human population and energy consumption grow exponentially, while oil production is linear. Only a matter of time. I find it highly coincidental that all the world's "terror" problems are concentrated in the exact same regions where all the important oil reserves are concentrated. Best I can make of the Iraq War II is that our government and armed forces are securing cheaper oil by annexing it, than if we had to buy it on the open market, competing with the likes of Europe & Asia. If you think ole King Hubbert was onto something, get this book for ideas on how to profit from it.
Rating:
Summary: Investing for Inflationary and Deflationary Times
Review: Lately I've been doing quite a bit of reading on Hubbert's Peak and our energy situation, the effects of mammoth US trade and federal budget deficits, as well as China's re-emergence on the world stage; and I can say that for the most part the Leebs do an admirable job of describing our coming economic environment in the broader strokes. More important, they discuss how to distinguish inflationary from delationary times through their oil-indicator and how to invest in each sitution.
The Leebs make a strong case for having oil stocks, gold and Berkshire Hathaway shares as core holdings in both an inflationary and deflationary portfolio. Aside from REITS, their case for holding defense stocks and particular tech and lifestyle stocks is much less convincing. In fact, their much touted tech stock has under performed the S&P index by 40% over the past year, and made the news last week losing 7% in one day. I am also very aware of one of their lifestyle stock picks and would never put my money there - an organization noted for its success in losing pounds, may also succeed in losing dollars. These are their recommendation sins with commissions.
There are sins of omission as well. There is no mention of TIPS - a surprising omission when discussing inflationary environments. And there is no mention of how or why to invest (or not invest) in China apart from PetroChina (whose ticker is PTR not PRT as printed in the book).
The authors include their results from their last portfolio recommendations from 1998. On the plus side, they honestly reproduce their portfolio warts and all. On the negative side, one of the warts is ENRON (listed as an environmental play) which they correctly report as having a return of exactly -100%. The silver lining is that their zero-coupon investment gained over 90%, so their overall return was above 39% over a 5 year period. Overall, pretty good, even with Enron. But what this underscores to me is how important and useful zeros are for investing in a deflationary time and just how wrong the Leebs can be with their individual stock picks.
All in all, though, I highly recommend this book for anyone wanting to protect their assets in the coming years.
PS: Regarding the status of our civilization vis-a-vis oil and energy, I'm of the same opinion as the May 31st review from "A Reader." We are, I believe, in a period of overshoot soon to be followed by war and/or collapse. So, in a way, reading this book was something of a pick-me-up -- for the Leebs presuppose that things will pretty much continue as before only with more expensive energy. I fervently hope they're right! We'll all find out soon enough. This is one wager I'd be happy to lose.
Rating:
Summary: Make real money
Review: Perhaps the strongest comments I can make about this excellent book is to note that the only negative comments about the book strongly support the Leebs' argument. Read the one star review "an interesting piece of fiction" to see what I mean. Here a putative reader from Champaign Ill compares the Leebs to Rachel Carson and Paul Ehrlich. You have to wonder why this is negative. Carson's arguments changed the way we look at the environment and that Ehrlich continues to write provocative works as a chaired Stanford professor says it all. If you want to tear down an artist by comparing him to Picasso, you are saying a lot more about yourself than the artist.
The same reviewer notes that worldwide oil reserves have been raised to slightly over a trillion barrels. Again were that the case then the Leebs' arguments and I am sure they would agree would be even more telling as a trillion barrels would imply that we are already past the half way point and that oil production has likely already peaked. My guess is that Leebs would place current reserves closer to 1.2 trillion, which would be consistent with peak in oil production within the next two to three years.
I have to admit I am curious about the identity of the reviewer, who professes a familiarity with the Leebs's newsletter and notes its poor past performance for making predictions. I have been reading Stephen Leeb's newsletters for many years and would place them among the very best. Curiously the only letter the Leebs (husband and wife) have done together is the most recent one, The Complete Investor (TCI), which recently won the award for the best financial newsletter. However this newsletter is still less than a year old. Yet the reviewer claims TCI- despite its award winning performance - has a poor long-term record. Curious to say the least. Clearly this reviewer has an axe to grind. Maybe I am being too clever here but I can't help but note that the reasoning (very poor) and style (flippant) of the comments are not dissimilar from those of Leeb's former newsletter Personal Finance, which since Leeb has left has gone down hill in a big way. I dropped a 15 year subscription to it about six months ago.
I conclude by saying again that if the worst you can say about a book turns out upon closer analysis to support the book, then the book is probably a darn good read. I believe that Leeb, though not always right is one of the most prophetic and provocative thinkers on the investment scene. This book has a decent chance to become a true classic and I rate it a must read.
Rating:
Summary: An excellent book for investors and economists
Review: Stephen Leeb has great insight into the current and future states of our natural resources, and the trends that govern them. "The Oil Factor" presents a no-nonsense analysis of the energy commodity that has the most import in our world today. The book is clear, understandable, and has a veritable volume of practical advice for short and long term investment. After reading "The Oil Factor", I feel that many aspects of our energy situation and its effect on financial markets, aspects that I understood only superficially before, now make a lot more sense, particularly from the standpoint of a larger, world-view. I recommend this book to anyone who has invested in energy markets or is interested in the effect of oil prices and energy problems on the market in general.
Rating: 
Summary: Beware of the Pivotal Role of Oil
Review: The Leebs arm readers with an investment strategy to survive, what they see, as the coming energy crisis. Energy is crucial to the world' economy. The Leebs believe we are transitioning away from reliance on oil and gas as our primary energy sources. As supplies dwindle, the price is experiencing an upside breakout, which will place inflationary pressures on the economy in conjunction with deflationary threats. The Leebs predict the dwindling energy supplies will cause oil price will rise to $100 a barrel by the end of this decade, if not sooner. They observe that oil prices are the single most reliable predictor of stock market performance. That is why they urge investors to alternate between inflation and deflation positions using their "amazing oil indicator." Generally, I am skeptical of simplistic investment approaches. In my experience these indicators work only for investors whom I charitably call "donators." Donators are a necessary market group, but I do not generally want to join. In this case, however, I agree with the underlying thesis. Energy is a non-renewable resource to which the world's economy is hopelessly addicted. As the world transitions, there will be disruptions. I doubt they will take the form of a short-term, neat, predictable package.
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