Rating: Summary: Worth the read Review: This book was worth the read because of its many useful charts, tables, stats, etc. The book does shed some light on a very serious and important topic that we all will have deal with probably sooner rather than later. Kudos for all the hard work put into developing a strong argument against fiat currency. Yet, the solutions offered by the author are simply recycled, failed marxist policy. The liquidation will occur and nothing government can do will either prevent it or ease the pain of it. Period. Strange end to an otherwise readable work.
Rating: Summary: Penetrating thinking Review: This is a quasi-economic text book from a macro POV. The focus is on truly understanding why so many country banking systems have come unglued in recent decades and applying that insight to the current and largest example, USA. He uses well documented statistics of international fund flows to empirically demonstrate what happened, the economic consequences and the likely near term (2-5 yr.) scenario. In the process he destroys the monetarist theories of Milton Friedman and the fruitless efforts of the Fed to reflate us into a new bubble. Do not read this book at your own financial peril!
Rating: Summary: Excellent data compiled, but flawed logic and too simplistic Review: This is an excellent book in terms of the data provided. No comparable compilation of data in a recent book comes to mind, and that the book covers a recent event - an ongoing event, furthermore - is a big plus. It's also an excellent primer for beginner economists or anyone simply interested in basic economic theory to get some experience with macro. Unfortunately, before even touching on any flaws in economic theory, this book is simply lacking in logical development. Additionally, the solutions Duncan provides are far too simplistic. Duncan's overabundance of faith in the Bretton-Woods system - the concept of backing the US-printed bill directly to gold in a fixed ratio - is disappointingly evident throughout the book. The dollar bill is merely a medium by which 'credit expansion' and any other phenomena may occur. The system, not the medium, is the active responsible agent in the phenomena. Whether the dollar itself is used is not relevant. Perhaps the flaw in Duncan's logic can best be summed up to the layman by the catch phrase, "Guns don't kill people; people kill people." Even that comparison is not entirely accurate, because guns actually do provide a much simpler method for a person to take another's life than other available means. But then the concept is even truer - the dollar is just a method. The systems governing the exchange of the dollar are to blame for credit overexpansion. Japan's economic policy must be first and foremost to blame for Japan's own economic collapse. This can be paralleled in the use of the Bretton Woods system as an economic stablizer. The Bretton Woods system does not need gold to back the dollar - it merely needs SOME resource. It doesn't even have to be limited. Does it matter whether the system uses gold, or clamshells, or pebbles, or diamonds (the horror), or even copper? The answer is no. The dollar is currently backed on - itself. This is our current system. Duncan simply doesn't attack systems on anything more than a skin-deep level in this book, and his resulting reliance on criticizing or praising mediums (and suggesting solutions in terms of mediums) really raises a lot of questions about his analysis. There is no way I can even begin to criticize Duncan's flaws in economic theory in 1000 words, and past reviewer has already touched on that. So in conclusion, this is a book that had a great setup - there is a tremendous amount of data compiled here. This is particularly emphasized by the current (and ongoing) nature of the topic, and for this alone Duncan deserves a minimum rating of 2. Unfortunately, the book is disappointingly lacking in logical analysis and Duncan's solutions are far oversimplified. To anyone with any experience in economics (or logic, for that matter), the book will be a tough read due to his pervasive insistence on mediums and his occassional self-contradiction. This is the type of book that I would perhaps assign to my students not just so they can get a good look at data and some insight into the macro world, but so they can also get a chance to think on their own, outside of a text, and criticize Duncan where he has failed.
Rating: Summary: The Ultimate Credit And Asset Bubble Has Arrived! Review: This is the remarkable story of how the dollar, unsupported by gold anymore, has gotten us into a financial mess. The obvious cause, Duncan states, is the propensity of Americans to buy inexpensive foreign made products instead of more costly American made products, workers in most other countries work for far lower wages than their American counterparts do. This outflow of dollars contributed, and is perhaps the primary cause of, the Asian and Japanese financial crises, as these exported dollars, in paying for America's large trade deficit, stimulated and overheated their economies by causing excess production capacity to be built, which later resulted in over-production and a downward deflationary price cycle. Most of these exported dollars, however, eventually found their way back into the United States (if these counties were to exchange their dollars into their own currencies, Duncan explains, it would increase the value of their currency in relation to the dollar and make their exports more expensive to Americans and thereby be less competitive, they would not like that). These dollars coming back to the United States are invested in various investment vehicles such as Treasury bonds, stocks, real estate, etc., but eventually, Duncan writes, these dollars find their way into banks, which overstimulates our economy by driving up real estate and stock prices to exorbitant levels, creating vastly expanded credit and very low interest rates. Basically, Duncan says stock market and real estate bubbles formed. Duncan goes on to write that our trade deficit with other countries amounts to 50 million dollars AN HOUR. Americans are living far beyond their means, with very little in real savings for bad times. Duncan many times writes that it is inevitable that the dollar must come down in value in relation to other currencies. When that happens, and Americans are forced to live within their means, it could spell economic chaos in the United States and in the exporting counties who depend on the economic engine the United States was as a major importer. Duncan says many times that equilibrium in trade between the United States and other counties must, sooner or later, be restored, and he gives reasons for this. Duncan proposes that a minimum wage be set in exporting counties, in jobs associated with exports, as a way of stimulating internal consumer demand to offset the eventual decline in exports to the Unites States, well, all I can say to this is something like this or similar must be done soon, as the alternative, Duncan says, is a protracted worldwide economic depression. I took one star off in my review as I thought Duncan at times repeated himself with excess at times. Overall, a very informative book. Another good book to read, of a similar topic, is FINANCIAL RECKONING DAY by William Bonner, with Addison Wiggin.
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